遠程辦公提高生活優渥的受教育女性的生育率
Chloe Berger
2023-03-13
圖片來源：MOMO PRODUCTIONS—GETTY IMAGES
期待女性事業家庭兩不誤，就像運動服里的肩墊一樣已經過時，但遠程辦公似乎讓職場女性能夠擁有更多，那就是相比在辦公室辦公，她們可以擁有平衡發展事業和照顧子女的自由與靈活性。
兩黨倡議組織經濟創新集團（Economic Innovation Group）的最新分析報告，總結了遠程辦公對組建家庭的好處。研究人員根據2022年的兩次人口情報家庭調查（Demographic Intelligence Family Survey），研究了3,000位18歲至44歲的美國女性對于家庭和生育的展望。
他們發現，至少部分遠程辦公的女性懷孕或嘗試懷孕的概率為16.7%，而非遠程辦公的女性概率只有13.7%。嚴重的生育低谷，令埃隆·馬斯克等評論者憂心忡忡。但遠程辦公可能為千禧一代父母的生育高峰奠定基礎。千禧一代恰好是在二戰后生育高峰起出生的一代人，因此他們的父母得到了嬰兒潮一代父母的稱號。
美國國家經濟研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）發布的工作報告顯示，2021年美國嬰兒出生率提高，這是自大衰退（Great Recession）以來出生率首次大幅度逆轉。增長的趨勢在30歲至34歲的女性和大學畢業的女性當中尤為顯著，這兩個群體都更容易獲得職業安全，并且有更大的可能從事遠程辦公。美國國家經濟研究局的研究人員認為，這兩個因素使她們更容易孕育子女。
這種趨勢與新冠疫情初期相比出現了明顯逆轉。當時，美國的出生率延續了疫情之前的趨勢，創歷史新低；在大衰退期間出生率下降，并且由于多個因素的影響，出生率始終低迷，其中最主要的原因是令人難以承受的兒童護理成本。美國進步智庫人民政策項目（People’s Policy Project）的律師及創始人馬特·布呂尼希指出，出生率下降的另外一個原因是與前幾代人相比，女性生育年齡更晚，或者生育子女數量更少。
經濟創新集團分析報告的作者萊曼·斯通和亞當·厄茲梅克的立場較為中立。他們表示：“雖然發達國家的出生率長期下降，讓我們很難對未來的人口出生趨勢感到樂觀，但遠程辦公興起等因素，至少在某些群體，似乎出現了相反趨勢。”
過去一年，遠程辦公且財務狀況顯著改善的女性，比非遠程辦公女性懷孕或嘗試懷孕的比例高10個百分點。在財務狀況穩定或惡化的女性中，遠程辦公和非遠程辦公的群體之間沒有區別。
經濟創新集團分析報告的作者對《財富》雜志解釋稱：“重要的是我們衡量財富水平時參照的是在過去一年家庭財務狀況‘大幅好轉’的女性，其中可能包括來自不同收入階層的女性。雖然我們沒有進行直接研究，但受教育程度和收入水平更高的女性更有可能有機會遠程辦公。因此，我們預計整體上來說，遠程辦公對高收入家庭更有好處。”
遠程辦公對已經生育和35歲以上女性的家庭規劃有更大的影響（對39歲以上女性的影響更明顯）。報告作者寫道：“換言之，遠程辦公并不一定會促使女性生育，但可能有助于年齡較大的女性平衡工作和家庭的需求，從而實現家庭目標。”
但遠程辦公不止影響女性的生育，還有婚姻。未婚遠程辦公者（22%）比現場辦公者（15.7%）更有可能在來年結婚。研究人員將其歸因于遠程辦公者更高的遷移率，他們猜測遠程辦公可能消除了地理意義上的流動性問題，或者因為地理位置伴侶需要為對方犧牲自己的事業等問題。這會減少情侶關系中存在的困難，為遠程辦公者步入婚姻殿堂掃清道路。
另外一個可能的原因是，遠程辦公者避免了令人討厭的通勤，每天多出72分鐘的時間陪伴伴侶和培養雙方的關系，或者有更多時間陪伴家人。數據顯示，遠程辦公者能夠拿出更多時間照顧子女，這也解釋了為什么她們更傾向于生育。地理位置的靈活性通常還與工作時間的靈活性掛鉤，這對遠程辦公的家長而言也很有幫助。（非遠程辦公者缺乏這種自主權，再加上當前的兒童護理危機，導致人們選擇離開勞動力隊伍，尤以女性為主。）
研究人員還向受訪女性詢問，她們夢想的家庭與現實是否一致，包括她們的子女數量是否符合自己的預期。可以選擇遠程辦公的女性對未來表示失望或給出負面評價的比例更低。
電影《打工女郎》（Working Girl）里的現代職業女性的興起也可能發生在家中，因為遠程辦公可能是像梅拉妮·格里菲思一樣的人乃至所有女性在職場大放異彩的途徑之一。（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
期待女性事業家庭兩不誤，就像運動服里的肩墊一樣已經過時，但遠程辦公似乎讓職場女性能夠擁有更多，那就是相比在辦公室辦公，她們可以擁有平衡發展事業和照顧子女的自由與靈活性。
兩黨倡議組織經濟創新集團（Economic Innovation Group）的最新分析報告，總結了遠程辦公對組建家庭的好處。研究人員根據2022年的兩次人口情報家庭調查（Demographic Intelligence Family Survey），研究了3,000位18歲至44歲的美國女性對于家庭和生育的展望。
他們發現，至少部分遠程辦公的女性懷孕或嘗試懷孕的概率為16.7%，而非遠程辦公的女性概率只有13.7%。嚴重的生育低谷，令埃隆·馬斯克等評論者憂心忡忡。但遠程辦公可能為千禧一代父母的生育高峰奠定基礎。千禧一代恰好是在二戰后生育高峰起出生的一代人，因此他們的父母得到了嬰兒潮一代父母的稱號。
美國國家經濟研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）發布的工作報告顯示，2021年美國嬰兒出生率提高，這是自大衰退（Great Recession）以來出生率首次大幅度逆轉。增長的趨勢在30歲至34歲的女性和大學畢業的女性當中尤為顯著，這兩個群體都更容易獲得職業安全，并且有更大的可能從事遠程辦公。美國國家經濟研究局的研究人員認為，這兩個因素使她們更容易孕育子女。
這種趨勢與新冠疫情初期相比出現了明顯逆轉。當時，美國的出生率延續了疫情之前的趨勢，創歷史新低；在大衰退期間出生率下降，并且由于多個因素的影響，出生率始終低迷，其中最主要的原因是令人難以承受的兒童護理成本。美國進步智庫人民政策項目（People’s Policy Project）的律師及創始人馬特·布呂尼希指出，出生率下降的另外一個原因是與前幾代人相比，女性生育年齡更晚，或者生育子女數量更少。
經濟創新集團分析報告的作者萊曼·斯通和亞當·厄茲梅克的立場較為中立。他們表示：“雖然發達國家的出生率長期下降，讓我們很難對未來的人口出生趨勢感到樂觀，但遠程辦公興起等因素，至少在某些群體，似乎出現了相反趨勢。”
過去一年，遠程辦公且財務狀況顯著改善的女性，比非遠程辦公女性懷孕或嘗試懷孕的比例高10個百分點。在財務狀況穩定或惡化的女性中，遠程辦公和非遠程辦公的群體之間沒有區別。
經濟創新集團分析報告的作者對《財富》雜志解釋稱：“重要的是我們衡量財富水平時參照的是在過去一年家庭財務狀況‘大幅好轉’的女性，其中可能包括來自不同收入階層的女性。雖然我們沒有進行直接研究，但受教育程度和收入水平更高的女性更有可能有機會遠程辦公。因此，我們預計整體上來說，遠程辦公對高收入家庭更有好處。”
遠程辦公對已經生育和35歲以上女性的家庭規劃有更大的影響（對39歲以上女性的影響更明顯）。報告作者寫道：“換言之，遠程辦公并不一定會促使女性生育，但可能有助于年齡較大的女性平衡工作和家庭的需求，從而實現家庭目標。”
但遠程辦公不止影響女性的生育，還有婚姻。未婚遠程辦公者（22%）比現場辦公者（15.7%）更有可能在來年結婚。研究人員將其歸因于遠程辦公者更高的遷移率，他們猜測遠程辦公可能消除了地理意義上的流動性問題，或者因為地理位置伴侶需要為對方犧牲自己的事業等問題。這會減少情侶關系中存在的困難，為遠程辦公者步入婚姻殿堂掃清道路。
另外一個可能的原因是，遠程辦公者避免了令人討厭的通勤，每天多出72分鐘的時間陪伴伴侶和培養雙方的關系，或者有更多時間陪伴家人。數據顯示，遠程辦公者能夠拿出更多時間照顧子女，這也解釋了為什么她們更傾向于生育。地理位置的靈活性通常還與工作時間的靈活性掛鉤，這對遠程辦公的家長而言也很有幫助。（非遠程辦公者缺乏這種自主權，再加上當前的兒童護理危機，導致人們選擇離開勞動力隊伍，尤以女性為主。）
研究人員還向受訪女性詢問，她們夢想的家庭與現實是否一致，包括她們的子女數量是否符合自己的預期。可以選擇遠程辦公的女性對未來表示失望或給出負面評價的比例更低。
電影《打工女郎》（Working Girl）里的現代職業女性的興起也可能發生在家中，因為遠程辦公可能是像梅拉妮·格里菲思一樣的人乃至所有女性在職場大放異彩的途徑之一。（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
The expectation that women must have and do it all is as outdated as shoulder pads on blazers, but it seems remote work can allow working women to have more: the freedom and flexibility to balance a career and children a bit better than the office ever did.
Remote work’s benefits for family formation comes from a new analysis by bipartisan advocacy organization Economic Innovation Group. The researchers looked at the family and fertility outlooks of 3,000 U.S. women ages 18 to 44 from two waves of a survey of the Demographic Intelligence Family Survey in 2022.
They found that the likelihood of getting pregnant or trying to become pregnant is 16.7% for women working at least partly remotely and 13.7% for women who aren’t working remotely at all. So much for the baby bust worrying some commentators such as Elon Musk. Instead, remote work could be laying the seeds for a millennial parent baby boom, fitting for the large generation that echoes the post-war boom that gave their boomer parents their nickname.
Also, 2021 saw a mini baby bump, the first major reversal in fertility rates since the Great Recession, according to a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The bump was most pronounced for women aged 30 to 34 and college-educated women, both groups that had more access to job security and remote work, which the NBER researchers suggest help make it easier to have children.
This was a major reversal from the early years of the pandemic, when birth rates hit a record low, intensifying a pre-pandemic trend; birth rates declined during the Great Recession and continued to stagnate due to several factors, chief among them unaffordable childcare. Birth rates are also falling because women are having children at a later age or simply having fewer than they did in earlier eras, points out Matt Bruenig, lawyer and founder of progressive think tank People’s Policy Project.
The authors of the EIG report, Lyman Stone and Adam Ozimek, strike a balanced tone: “While the long-running decline of fertility rates across the developed world makes it difficult to be optimistic overall about the future trajectory of births, the rise of remote work is one factor that seems likely to help push in the other direction, at least in some subgroups of the population.”
Women working remotely whose finances significantly improved over the last year were 10 percentage points more likely than their non-remote counterparts to report being or trying to be pregnant. There was no difference between remote and non-remote female workers with stable or deteriorating financial situations.
“It’s important to understand that our measure of wealth is women whose household finances have gotten ‘much better’ in the past year, which can include women across the income spectrum,” the authors of the EIG paper explain to Fortune. “However, while we didn’t directly examine this, remote work is more available to women with greater education levels and income. As a result, we would expect it to benefit higher income families more overall.”
Remote work also has a stronger effect on family planning for women who already have kids and those over the age of 35 (and even more so for those over 39). “In other words, remote work doesn’t necessarily trigger women to initiate childbearing, but it may help older women balance the competing demands of work and family and thereby to achieve their family goals,” the authors write in the report.
But it’s not just about babies, it’s also about marriage. Unmarried remote workers (22%) are more likely to be married in the next year than their in-office peers (15.7%). The researchers attribute this to the higher migration rates among remote workers, and guess that remote work eliminates issues of geographic mobility or one partner having to sacrifice their career for their partners’ because of location. This all might lead to less difficulties in a relationship, and potentially pave the way for virtual workers walking down the aisle more.
It could also be that, without the pesky commute, remote workers have an extra 72 minutes a day to spend with their partners and grow their relationship, or more time to dedicate to their family. It certainly gives them more time to dedicate to childcare, data shows, which could also explain why they’re more inclined to have a child. Location flexibility is also often tied to schedule flexibility, which tends to be helpful for working parents. (A lack of such autonomy for non-remote workers, coupled with the ongoing childcare crisis, has been shown to push mostly women out of the workforce.)
Women were also asked if their dreams about what their family would look like lined up with their reality, including if they had the amount of children they expected. Women who had the option to work remotely were less likely to report being disappointed or negative about their future.
A modern revival of Working Girl might as well take place from home, because working remotely might just be the way for Melanie Griffith types and women in general to get ahead in the workforce.
