美國(guó)參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇?麥康奈爾堪稱一位斗士,他曾對(duì)抗過(guò)貝拉克?奧巴馬、南希?佩洛西、查克?舒默、希拉里?克林頓、梅里克?加蘭,或者任何一位民主黨人。現(xiàn)在看起來(lái),他的斗爭(zhēng)還將繼續(xù)。
現(xiàn)在,佐治亞州的兩場(chǎng)勢(shì)均力敵的競(jìng)選將決定明年參議院的命運(yùn)。而當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)喬?拜登也可能會(huì)遭遇同樣的命運(yùn)。
麥康奈爾在參議院執(zhí)政期間的主要任務(wù)之一就是阻止任何潛在的民主黨政策,并阻撓兩黨合作法案,以繼續(xù)“投身”兩黨斗爭(zhēng)的角力。對(duì)于這一角色,他從來(lái)不否認(rèn)。
他明確表示,在奧巴馬當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的第一天,他的目標(biāo)就是不惜一切代價(jià)讓奧巴馬無(wú)法連任。他戲稱自己為死神,“僵局”或許就是他的中間名。
有一次,在聽(tīng)到麥康奈爾發(fā)表了一篇關(guān)于參議員配偶的“真誠(chéng)”演講后,時(shí)任參議員阿爾?弗蘭肯笑稱,他希望麥康奈爾的言論“不那么邪惡”。誰(shuí)知麥康奈爾笑著反駁:“但我更偏愛(ài)邪惡一些。”
華爾街認(rèn)為共和黨控制參議院、民主黨控制白宮對(duì)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)是理想情況,但拜登由此可能將面臨兩年的立法僵局——除非民主黨明年1月在佐治亞州勝利奪得兩個(gè)決選席位。
早期的民調(diào)顯示,兩黨選情勢(shì)均力敵,雙方差距十分接近。其實(shí)兩名民主黨人都有可能贏得他們的競(jìng)選,在副總統(tǒng)賀錦麗(Kamala Harris)的決勝作用之下達(dá)成50對(duì)50的參議員席位——當(dāng)然這一切現(xiàn)在還很難說(shuō)。但即便如此,民主黨在國(guó)會(huì)中取得相對(duì)共和黨的微弱優(yōu)勢(shì),也不會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化成多大的影響力。
愛(ài)因斯坦總是被誤認(rèn)為說(shuō)過(guò)這句話:“精神錯(cuò)亂就是一遍遍地做同一件事情,卻期待不同的結(jié)果。”
我們不知道這句話的真實(shí)出處,但它很有道理:如果你想改變結(jié)果,你可能需要改變你做這件事情的過(guò)程。但是,中間派似乎相信拜登將能夠與麥康奈爾聯(lián)手合作——因?yàn)榘莸窃?jīng)是參議院的“和事佬”,就算參議院最終共和黨保持控制,他也可以推動(dòng)一系列相對(duì)進(jìn)步的政策提案獲得通過(guò)。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的專欄作家喬治?F?威爾認(rèn)為,拜登不必屈從于本黨的激進(jìn)派,所以他實(shí)際上能夠從共和黨占多數(shù)的參議院中獲益。政客們稱這對(duì)新搭檔是“權(quán)力伙伴”,認(rèn)為他們可以相處得很好。
南卡羅來(lái)納州眾議員吉姆?克萊伯恩表示,和麥康奈爾打交道“不會(huì)像一些人想象的那么困難”。“我不認(rèn)為麥康奈爾對(duì)拜登會(huì)像對(duì)奧巴馬那樣刻薄。”他說(shuō)。
“像喬?拜登這樣的制度主義者知道,他能夠得到的就是這些。”華盛頓頗具影響力的說(shuō)客斯科特?西格爾說(shuō),“我要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是,拜登和麥康奈爾可能是彼此的角斗士,但其實(shí)他們都非常了解對(duì)方。”
在拜登36年的參議院生涯和8年的白宮生涯中,拜登和麥康奈爾的確有過(guò)合作。
2010年,麥康奈爾與時(shí)任前副總統(tǒng)的拜登密切合作,促成了一筆大額稅收交易。麥康奈爾隨后邀請(qǐng)拜登在路易斯維爾大學(xué)的一個(gè)活動(dòng)上發(fā)言,以表尊重。
一次麥康奈爾也在場(chǎng)的活動(dòng)上,拜登發(fā)言說(shuō):“你們都想看看一位共和黨人和一位民主黨人是否能夠真心地喜歡對(duì)方,對(duì)吧?現(xiàn)在我告訴你們,我倆是真的彼此欣賞。”
兩人還在2013年繞過(guò)各自政黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位,就潛在的“財(cái)政懸崖”(fiscal cliff)進(jìn)行談判。當(dāng)時(shí)的參議院民主黨領(lǐng)袖哈里?里德被排除在談判之外。
幾年后,奧巴馬政府落幕,拜登揮別參議院。麥康奈爾說(shuō),拜登是“一位好朋友”,也是“值得信賴的伙伴”。
拜登似乎不希望這些溫情完結(jié)。拜登表示,他在橢圓形辦公室的第一件事將是打電話給共和黨人,因?yàn)椤拔覀儽仨毰宄绾卫^續(xù)前進(jìn),其實(shí)我們?cè)诤芏嗍虑樯鲜且庖?jiàn)一致的”。他已經(jīng)提出了將共和黨人納入自己內(nèi)閣的想法。
拜登在特拉華州威爾明頓對(duì)支持者說(shuō):“民主黨人和共和黨人拒絕彼此合作,這并不是我們無(wú)法控制的什么神秘力量。這是一個(gè)決定,是一個(gè)我們可以做出的選擇。”
在他的勝選演說(shuō)中,他還表示:“如果我們可以決定不合作,那么我們一定也能夠決定合作。我相信,這是美國(guó)人民賦予我們使命的一部分。人民希望我們?yōu)榱怂麄兊睦娑献鳌!?/p>
言論是一回事,但行動(dòng)又是另一回事。
在CNN的奧巴馬回憶錄預(yù)覽中,奧巴馬稱拜登與麥康奈爾的關(guān)系主要建立在“共和黨偏見(jiàn)”的基礎(chǔ)上,而不是特殊的友誼。
奧巴馬寫道:“除了拜登有參議院工作經(jīng)歷和法律敏銳度之外,我選他作為中間人的一大原因是我意識(shí)到,在麥康奈爾看來(lái),共和黨與副總統(tǒng)進(jìn)行談判,可能不那么容易激怒共和黨。”
奧巴馬時(shí)代以后,共和黨也發(fā)生了變化。比如,麥康奈爾不愿意公開接受拜登將在明年1月20日取代特朗普總統(tǒng)的事實(shí),而是選擇站在特朗普所謂選票欺詐這一未經(jīng)證實(shí)的說(shuō)法一邊。
麥康奈爾在選舉結(jié)果公布后表示:“特朗普總統(tǒng)完全有權(quán)調(diào)查違規(guī)指控,并權(quán)衡他的法律選擇。”他拒絕稱特朗普應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)選舉結(jié)果讓步。
在特朗普治下,美國(guó)的政治行為變得越來(lái)越黨派化。共和黨比20年前要保守得多,不再能夠代表美國(guó)大多數(shù)人民的意見(jiàn)——就連該黨對(duì)麥康奈爾的看法最近也發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。
2017年,大多數(shù)共和黨人和民主黨人對(duì)這位參議院領(lǐng)袖持負(fù)面態(tài)度。但研究公司YouGov的調(diào)查顯示,2017年至2020年,他在共和黨人中的平均支持度從4.0分升至5.4分(滿分為10分),而在民主黨人中的支持率從2.6分降至1.8分。
“麥康奈爾可能會(huì)試圖孤立拜登以達(dá)成協(xié)議,但我不相信黨團(tuán)會(huì)同意。”里德的高級(jí)助手吉姆?曼利說(shuō),“共和黨,它已經(jīng)變了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
美國(guó)參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇?麥康奈爾堪稱一位斗士,他曾對(duì)抗過(guò)貝拉克?奧巴馬、南希?佩洛西、查克?舒默、希拉里?克林頓、梅里克?加蘭,或者任何一位民主黨人。現(xiàn)在看起來(lái),他的斗爭(zhēng)還將繼續(xù)。
現(xiàn)在,佐治亞州的兩場(chǎng)勢(shì)均力敵的競(jìng)選將決定明年參議院的命運(yùn)。而當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)喬?拜登也可能會(huì)遭遇同樣的命運(yùn)。
麥康奈爾在參議院執(zhí)政期間的主要任務(wù)之一就是阻止任何潛在的民主黨政策,并阻撓兩黨合作法案,以繼續(xù)“投身”兩黨斗爭(zhēng)的角力。對(duì)于這一角色,他從來(lái)不否認(rèn)。
他明確表示,在奧巴馬當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的第一天,他的目標(biāo)就是不惜一切代價(jià)讓奧巴馬無(wú)法連任。他戲稱自己為死神,“僵局”或許就是他的中間名。
有一次,在聽(tīng)到麥康奈爾發(fā)表了一篇關(guān)于參議員配偶的“真誠(chéng)”演講后,時(shí)任參議員阿爾?弗蘭肯笑稱,他希望麥康奈爾的言論“不那么邪惡”。誰(shuí)知麥康奈爾笑著反駁:“但我更偏愛(ài)邪惡一些。”
華爾街認(rèn)為共和黨控制參議院、民主黨控制白宮對(duì)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)是理想情況,但拜登由此可能將面臨兩年的立法僵局——除非民主黨明年1月在佐治亞州勝利奪得兩個(gè)決選席位。
早期的民調(diào)顯示,兩黨選情勢(shì)均力敵,雙方差距十分接近。其實(shí)兩名民主黨人都有可能贏得他們的競(jìng)選,在副總統(tǒng)賀錦麗(Kamala Harris)的決勝作用之下達(dá)成50對(duì)50的參議員席位——當(dāng)然這一切現(xiàn)在還很難說(shuō)。但即便如此,民主黨在國(guó)會(huì)中取得相對(duì)共和黨的微弱優(yōu)勢(shì),也不會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化成多大的影響力。
愛(ài)因斯坦總是被誤認(rèn)為說(shuō)過(guò)這句話:“精神錯(cuò)亂就是一遍遍地做同一件事情,卻期待不同的結(jié)果。”
我們不知道這句話的真實(shí)出處,但它很有道理:如果你想改變結(jié)果,你可能需要改變你做這件事情的過(guò)程。但是,中間派似乎相信拜登將能夠與麥康奈爾聯(lián)手合作——因?yàn)榘莸窃?jīng)是參議院的“和事佬”,就算參議院最終共和黨保持控制,他也可以推動(dòng)一系列相對(duì)進(jìn)步的政策提案獲得通過(guò)。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的專欄作家喬治?F?威爾認(rèn)為,拜登不必屈從于本黨的激進(jìn)派,所以他實(shí)際上能夠從共和黨占多數(shù)的參議院中獲益。政客們稱這對(duì)新搭檔是“權(quán)力伙伴”,認(rèn)為他們可以相處得很好。
南卡羅來(lái)納州眾議員吉姆?克萊伯恩表示,和麥康奈爾打交道“不會(huì)像一些人想象的那么困難”。“我不認(rèn)為麥康奈爾對(duì)拜登會(huì)像對(duì)奧巴馬那樣刻薄。”他說(shuō)。
“像喬?拜登這樣的制度主義者知道,他能夠得到的就是這些。”華盛頓頗具影響力的說(shuō)客斯科特?西格爾說(shuō),“我要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是,拜登和麥康奈爾可能是彼此的角斗士,但其實(shí)他們都非常了解對(duì)方。”
在拜登36年的參議院生涯和8年的白宮生涯中,拜登和麥康奈爾的確有過(guò)合作。
2010年,麥康奈爾與時(shí)任前副總統(tǒng)的拜登密切合作,促成了一筆大額稅收交易。麥康奈爾隨后邀請(qǐng)拜登在路易斯維爾大學(xué)的一個(gè)活動(dòng)上發(fā)言,以表尊重。
一次麥康奈爾也在場(chǎng)的活動(dòng)上,拜登發(fā)言說(shuō):“你們都想看看一位共和黨人和一位民主黨人是否能夠真心地喜歡對(duì)方,對(duì)吧?現(xiàn)在我告訴你們,我倆是真的彼此欣賞。”
兩人還在2013年繞過(guò)各自政黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位,就潛在的“財(cái)政懸崖”(fiscal cliff)進(jìn)行談判。當(dāng)時(shí)的參議院民主黨領(lǐng)袖哈里?里德被排除在談判之外。
幾年后,奧巴馬政府落幕,拜登揮別參議院。麥康奈爾說(shuō),拜登是“一位好朋友”,也是“值得信賴的伙伴”。
拜登似乎不希望這些溫情完結(jié)。拜登表示,他在橢圓形辦公室的第一件事將是打電話給共和黨人,因?yàn)椤拔覀儽仨毰宄绾卫^續(xù)前進(jìn),其實(shí)我們?cè)诤芏嗍虑樯鲜且庖?jiàn)一致的”。他已經(jīng)提出了將共和黨人納入自己內(nèi)閣的想法。
拜登在特拉華州威爾明頓對(duì)支持者說(shuō):“民主黨人和共和黨人拒絕彼此合作,這并不是我們無(wú)法控制的什么神秘力量。這是一個(gè)決定,是一個(gè)我們可以做出的選擇。”
在他的勝選演說(shuō)中,他還表示:“如果我們可以決定不合作,那么我們一定也能夠決定合作。我相信,這是美國(guó)人民賦予我們使命的一部分。人民希望我們?yōu)榱怂麄兊睦娑献鳌!?/p>
言論是一回事,但行動(dòng)又是另一回事。
在CNN的奧巴馬回憶錄預(yù)覽中,奧巴馬稱拜登與麥康奈爾的關(guān)系主要建立在“共和黨偏見(jiàn)”的基礎(chǔ)上,而不是特殊的友誼。
奧巴馬寫道:“除了拜登有參議院工作經(jīng)歷和法律敏銳度之外,我選他作為中間人的一大原因是我意識(shí)到,在麥康奈爾看來(lái),共和黨與副總統(tǒng)進(jìn)行談判,可能不那么容易激怒共和黨。”
奧巴馬時(shí)代以后,共和黨也發(fā)生了變化。比如,麥康奈爾不愿意公開接受拜登將在明年1月20日取代特朗普總統(tǒng)的事實(shí),而是選擇站在特朗普所謂選票欺詐這一未經(jīng)證實(shí)的說(shuō)法一邊。
麥康奈爾在選舉結(jié)果公布后表示:“特朗普總統(tǒng)完全有權(quán)調(diào)查違規(guī)指控,并權(quán)衡他的法律選擇。”他拒絕稱特朗普應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)選舉結(jié)果讓步。
在特朗普治下,美國(guó)的政治行為變得越來(lái)越黨派化。共和黨比20年前要保守得多,不再能夠代表美國(guó)大多數(shù)人民的意見(jiàn)——就連該黨對(duì)麥康奈爾的看法最近也發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。
2017年,大多數(shù)共和黨人和民主黨人對(duì)這位參議院領(lǐng)袖持負(fù)面態(tài)度。但研究公司YouGov的調(diào)查顯示,2017年至2020年,他在共和黨人中的平均支持度從4.0分升至5.4分(滿分為10分),而在民主黨人中的支持率從2.6分降至1.8分。
“麥康奈爾可能會(huì)試圖孤立拜登以達(dá)成協(xié)議,但我不相信黨團(tuán)會(huì)同意。”里德的高級(jí)助手吉姆?曼利說(shuō),“共和黨,它已經(jīng)變了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
It’s a tale as old as time: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell versus Barack Obama—or Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer or Hillary Clinton or Merrick Garland, or whoever the Democrat du jour is.
Now, with two tight races in Georgia set to control the fate of the Senate next year, President-elect Joe Biden may suffer the same fate.
McConnell doesn’t deny that one of the pillars of his reign in the Senate is to block any potential Democratic policy and thwart bipartisan bills in favor of partisan political maneuvering. He made it clear that his day one goal during the Obama presidency was to make him a one-termer at all costs. He gleefully refers to himself as the grim reaper; “gridlock” may as well be his middle name. Once, after hearing McConnell deliver a heartfelt speech about Senate spouses, then-Sen. Al Franken joked that he preferred his speeches when they weren’t evil. “I like the evil ones better,” McConnell retorted, smiling.
And while Wall Street argues that a Republican-held Senate and Democratic-held White House is an ideal situation for markets, Biden is likely looking at two years of a legislative stalemate unless Democrats pick up two runoff seats in Georgia this January. Early polling shows tight races, with each candidate within the margin of error of the other. It's possible that both Democrats win their races, and the Senate ends up 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tiebreaker, but it's a toss-up right now. And even so, the very slim margins Democrats will have in Congress over Republicans won't translate into heaps of leverage.
Albert Einstein is famously misattributed as saying that "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." We don’t actually know where the quote comes from, but it holds true: If you want to change the results, you probably need to shake up the process. Yet centrists appear to believe that Biden will be able to work hand in hand with McConnell, that because of his history as a beloved peacemaker in the Senate, he’ll be able to get a number of relatively progressive policy initiatives passed even if Republicans maintain control.
Washington Post columnist George F. Will has argued that Biden could actually benefit from a Republican majority Senate because he won’t have to bend to the progressive side of his own party. Politico has called the pair a “power couple” and argued that they could get along. South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn said that dealing with McConnell will "not be as hard as some people think. I don’t think Mitch will be as mean to Joe as he was to Obama."
“An institutionalist like Joe Biden knows that's all he can get,” said Scott Segal, an influential Washington lobbyist. “And I would stress here that Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell may have been gladiators against one another, both in the Senate and in this election season, but they know each other very well.”
It’s true that Biden and McConnell worked together during Biden’s 36 years in the U.S. Senate and eight years in the White House. In 2010, McConnell collaborated closely with the former vice president to broker a large tax deal. McConnell invited Biden to speak at an event at the University of Louisville afterward, as a sign of respect.
“You want to see whether a Republican and Democrat really like each other,’’ Biden said at the event as McConnell looked on. “Well, I’m here to tell you we do.’’
The pair also skirted their parties' leadership by coming together to negotiate around the potential fiscal cliff in 2013, opting to leave then-Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid out of their talks.
Years later, as the Obama administration came to an end, and Biden said goodbye to the Senate, McConnell said that Biden was “a good friend” as well as a “trusted partner.”
It appears that Biden doesn’t want those warm feelings to end. The President-elect has indicated that one of his first actions in the Oval Office will be calling Republicans because “we've got to figure out how we're going to move forward here. Because there are so many things we really do agree on.” He has floated the idea of including Republicans in his own cabinet.
“Refusal of Democrats and Republicans to cooperate with one another—it’s not some mysterious force beyond our control. It’s a decision, a choice we make,” Biden told supporters in Wilmington, Del., during his victory speech. “And if we can decide not to cooperate, then we can decide to cooperate. And I believe that this is part of the mandate given to us from the American people. They want us to cooperate in their interest.”
Words are one thing, but actions are another. In a preview of Barack Obama’s memoir, obtained by CNN, the 44th President described Biden’s relationship with McConnell as one based mainly on Republican prejudices and not a particularly special friendship.
Obama writes: “One of the reasons I’d chosen Joe to act as an intermediary—in addition to his Senate experience and legislative acumen—was my awareness that in McConnell’s mind, negotiations with the vice president didn’t inflame the Republican base in quite the same way that any appearance of cooperation with (Black, Muslim socialist) Obama was bound to do.”
The Republican Party has also changed since the Obama era, as demonstrated by McConnell’s unwillingness to publicly accept that Biden will replace President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, instead opting to side with Trump and his unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
"President Trump is 100% within his rights to look into allegations of irregularities and weigh his legal options,” McConnell said following the election results. He has refused to say that Trump should concede the race.
Under Trump, American political behavior grew increasingly partisan. The Republican Party is far more conservative than it was 20 years ago—and less representative of the nation's demographics. Even views on McConnell have shifted recently, emboldening the leader to stay the course. In 2017, the majority of Republicans and Democrats viewed the Senate leader unfavorably. But according to surveys conducted by research firm YouGov, between 2017 and 2020, his average rating among Republicans grew from 4.0 to 5.4 on a 10-point scale, while his rating among Democrats dropped from 2.6 to 1.8.
"McConnell may try to isolate Biden to cut deals, but I don't believe the caucus will agree with it," said Jim Manley, a top aide to Reid. "The Republican Party has changed."