有一個行業(yè)不會隨著天氣的轉(zhuǎn)冷而降溫:科技。
盡管標準普爾500信息技術指數(shù)(S&P 500 Information Technology index)今年已經(jīng)上漲了約21%,但一些看漲的分析師認為,受美聯(lián)儲趨于穩(wěn)定、撫慰人心的消息影響,以及行業(yè)強勁的基本面因素的推動,科技股將在2021年剩余的時間里繼續(xù)強勁上漲。
“我們認為,美聯(lián)儲的講話和來自杰克遜霍爾(全球央行年會的舉辦地——編者注)的消息都非常利好科技股,由科技股領漲的近期‘所有的風險資產(chǎn)都前景明朗’?!盬edbush證券的丹·艾維斯在8月29日的一份報告中寫道,“在我們看來,對美聯(lián)儲/鮑威爾更加強硬派的舉措和對利率更快上升的擔憂,一直是華爾街揮之不去的憂慮,有可能讓正在進行的科技和市場暫停上漲?!?/p>
截至8月30日午盤,以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)已經(jīng)突破了0.8%。艾維斯寫道,他對科技股的看好“基于我們多年來的觀點,即橫跨消費者和企業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型進程,仍然處于早期階段”。“我們認為,由于科技股和FAANG(即Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix和谷歌——編者注)公司低估了未來兩至三年需求的激增,未來仍將出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模增長?!彼a充說。
艾維斯愿意給出一個數(shù)字來說明這種飆升帶來的近期影響:他預計到今年年底,科技股將上漲7%至10%。
但是,這并不是說這一受人喜愛的行業(yè)就不會面臨任何不利因素,其中包括持續(xù)的利率觀察和科技股的高市盈率(根據(jù)標準普爾全球的數(shù)據(jù),該行業(yè)的市盈率超過30倍)等。富國銀行投資研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高級全球市場策略師薩米爾·薩馬納認為,(科技股)估值正在周期高點附近徘徊?!拔覀兇_實認為,今年下半年利率有上行傾向,但是在科技股估值相當高的情況下,這將成為問題?!彼嬖V《財富》雜志。
中國不斷加劇的監(jiān)管緊張局勢已經(jīng)使得中國科技股處于危險之中。但Wedbush的艾維斯認為,在美國國內(nèi),“這些動態(tài)將再次預示美國科技股的好兆頭,因為有利的背景以及投資者從中國科技股轉(zhuǎn)向美國科技股,為FAANG公司和科技板塊在未來6至9個月的時間內(nèi)創(chuàng)造了一個‘天堂’”。
與此同時,分析師認為,短期內(nèi)一些因素可能對科技股有利,即使這些因素會損害整體經(jīng)濟?!昂芏嘹厔?,無論是遠程辦公,還是流媒體內(nèi)容、在線訂購,所有這些都是由軟件、自動化和硬件驅(qū)動的。所以這在很大程度上是對技術有利的?!睂τ诎S斯看好的云計算和網(wǎng)絡安全類股來說,這些趨勢也是好兆頭。另外,在德爾塔變種病毒仍然占據(jù)著頭條的背景下,“如果消費者擔心德爾塔變種病毒,他們就會購買科技產(chǎn)品?!彼_馬納補充說。
艾維斯稱,鑒于“未來市場上鮮有成長型企業(yè)”,科技股的漲勢可能會持續(xù)到今年年底,甚至延伸至2022年。
至于艾維斯認為哪些企業(yè)將會受益?進入秋季之后,他建議持有“FAANG這些長期贏家”,其中蘋果是他的首選;他也建議持有云計算股,例如微軟(Microsoft)、DocuSign、Nice和Pegasystems;以及網(wǎng)絡安全股,比如Zscaler、Varonis Systems、CyberArk Software、Telos Corp.、Tenable、Fortinet、Palo Alto Networks和SailPoint Technologies。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
有一個行業(yè)不會隨著天氣的轉(zhuǎn)冷而降溫:科技。
盡管標準普爾500信息技術指數(shù)(S&P 500 Information Technology index)今年已經(jīng)上漲了約21%,但一些看漲的分析師認為,受美聯(lián)儲趨于穩(wěn)定、撫慰人心的消息影響,以及行業(yè)強勁的基本面因素的推動,科技股將在2021年剩余的時間里繼續(xù)強勁上漲。
“我們認為,美聯(lián)儲的講話和來自杰克遜霍爾(全球央行年會的舉辦地——編者注)的消息都非常利好科技股,由科技股領漲的近期‘所有的風險資產(chǎn)都前景明朗’。”Wedbush證券的丹·艾維斯在8月29日的一份報告中寫道,“在我們看來,對美聯(lián)儲/鮑威爾更加強硬派的舉措和對利率更快上升的擔憂,一直是華爾街揮之不去的憂慮,有可能讓正在進行的科技和市場暫停上漲。”
截至8月30日午盤,以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)已經(jīng)突破了0.8%。艾維斯寫道,他對科技股的看好“基于我們多年來的觀點,即橫跨消費者和企業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型進程,仍然處于早期階段”。“我們認為,由于科技股和FAANG(即Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix和谷歌——編者注)公司低估了未來兩至三年需求的激增,未來仍將出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模增長?!彼a充說。
艾維斯愿意給出一個數(shù)字來說明這種飆升帶來的近期影響:他預計到今年年底,科技股將上漲7%至10%。
但是,這并不是說這一受人喜愛的行業(yè)就不會面臨任何不利因素,其中包括持續(xù)的利率觀察和科技股的高市盈率(根據(jù)標準普爾全球的數(shù)據(jù),該行業(yè)的市盈率超過30倍)等。富國銀行投資研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高級全球市場策略師薩米爾·薩馬納認為,(科技股)估值正在周期高點附近徘徊?!拔覀兇_實認為,今年下半年利率有上行傾向,但是在科技股估值相當高的情況下,這將成為問題?!彼嬖V《財富》雜志。
中國不斷加劇的監(jiān)管緊張局勢已經(jīng)使得中國科技股處于危險之中。但Wedbush的艾維斯認為,在美國國內(nèi),“這些動態(tài)將再次預示美國科技股的好兆頭,因為有利的背景以及投資者從中國科技股轉(zhuǎn)向美國科技股,為FAANG公司和科技板塊在未來6至9個月的時間內(nèi)創(chuàng)造了一個‘天堂’”。
與此同時,分析師認為,短期內(nèi)一些因素可能對科技股有利,即使這些因素會損害整體經(jīng)濟?!昂芏嘹厔?,無論是遠程辦公,還是流媒體內(nèi)容、在線訂購,所有這些都是由軟件、自動化和硬件驅(qū)動的。所以這在很大程度上是對技術有利的。”對于艾維斯看好的云計算和網(wǎng)絡安全類股來說,這些趨勢也是好兆頭。另外,在德爾塔變種病毒仍然占據(jù)著頭條的背景下,“如果消費者擔心德爾塔變種病毒,他們就會購買科技產(chǎn)品?!彼_馬納補充說。
艾維斯稱,鑒于“未來市場上鮮有成長型企業(yè)”,科技股的漲勢可能會持續(xù)到今年年底,甚至延伸至2022年。
至于艾維斯認為哪些企業(yè)將會受益?進入秋季之后,他建議持有“FAANG這些長期贏家”,其中蘋果是他的首選;他也建議持有云計算股,例如微軟(Microsoft)、DocuSign、Nice和Pegasystems;以及網(wǎng)絡安全股,比如Zscaler、Varonis Systems、CyberArk Software、Telos Corp.、Tenable、Fortinet、Palo Alto Networks和SailPoint Technologies。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
There’s one sector that shouldn’t cool off as the weather turns colder, and it’s tech.
Though the S&P 500 Information Technology index is up roughly 21% this year, some bullish analysts see a strong further rally in tech stocks through the rest of 2021, juiced by the Federal Reserve’s steady and soothing messaging and the sector’s strong fundamentals.
“We believe Fedspeak and messaging coming out of Jackson Hole is very bullish for tech stocks with an ‘a(chǎn)ll clear for risk-on assets’ in the near-term led by tech stocks,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a August 29 note. “The fear of a more hawkish Fed/Powell and rates rising sooner has been a lingering worry for the Street that threatened to put the pause on the ongoing tech and market rally in our opinion.”
Already on August 30, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had popped over 0.8% as of midday trading. Ives wrote that his tech bullishness is “predicated on our multiyear thesis that the digital transformation story across the consumer and enterprise ecosystem is still in the early innings of playing out.” He added, “We believe massive growth is still on the horizon with tech stocks and FAANG names underestimating this surge of demand for the next 2–3 years.”
And Ives is willing to put a number on the near-term effects of that surge: He sees tech stocks rising 7% to 10% through year’s end.
That’s not to say there isn’t a headwind or two facing the beloved sector, including the ongoing interest rate watch and the sheer multiples at which tech trades (per S&P Global data, the sector is trading over 30 times earnings). Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says valuations are hovering around cycle highs. “We do think there’s an upward bias to interest rates in the back half of the year, and with tech stocks trading at pretty full valuations, that’s just going to be a problem,” he tells Fortune.
Rising regulatory tensions in China have put Chinese tech stocks in jeopardy. But stateside, Wedbush’s Ives argued, “we believe these dynamics will yet again bode well for U.S. tech stocks as the favorable backdrop and rotation away from Chinese tech into U.S. tech creates a ‘nirvana set up’ for FAANG names and the tech sector into the next 6 to 9 months.”
Meanwhile, analysts see factors in the short run that could work in tech’s favor even if they hurt the broader economy. “A lot of trends, whether it’s working from home, whether it’s things like streaming content, whether it’s ordering things online—all those things are kind of being powered by software and automation and hardware; so a lot of that is working in tech’s favor,” Samana says. (Those trends also bode well for cloud and cybersecurity stocks, which Ives favors.) And with the Delta variant still dominating headlines, “if you’re worried about Delta, you buy tech,” Samana adds.
Given the “scarcity of growth names/winners in this market looking ahead,” according to Ives, the tech run can continue through year’s end and into 2022.
As to what names Ives likes? Heading into the fall, he recommends owning “the secular winners in FAANG” (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google), with Apple as his top pick; cloud stocks like Microsoft, DocuSign, Nice, and Pegasystems; and cybersecurity picks including Zscaler, Varonis Systems, CyberArk Software, Telos Corp., Tenable, Fortinet, Palo Alto Networks, and SailPoint Technologies.