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特斯拉發布四季度財報:靠賣碳排放積分賺了大錢,但核心業務仍在虧損

Shawn Tully
2021-01-29

如果埃隆·馬斯克不能讓特斯拉公司快速增加利潤,其投資者、擁護者們可能很快就會失去信心。

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雖然埃隆·馬斯克剛剛說過,特斯拉的估值接近萬億美元,但其第四季度財報數據卻很“打臉”。特斯拉發布的第四季度財報顯示,如果沒有碳排放交易支撐,光靠賣車、電池這些核心業務,特斯拉目前仍然在虧損。簡而言之,馬斯克并沒有展示出足夠實現公司目標的力量。如果他不能踩足利潤的油門,讓特斯拉公司像行將推出的Model S Plaid那樣加速行駛,其投資者、擁護者們可能很快就會失去信心。

在1月28日的特斯拉收益電話會議上,首席執行官馬斯克對批評人士和做空者多年來所持的“電動汽車巨頭被嚴重高估”觀點表示反駁。本周早些時候,特斯拉的市值徘徊在8800億美元左右。在開幕致辭中,馬斯克給出了“證明”特斯拉市值的“粗略數字”——他預計,常規車型(如Model S、3、X、Y系列)和熱門產品的銷售收入約為500億美元至600億美元,而向全自動駕駛汽車(FSD)的轉變將讓公司未來的銷售收入“再翻一番”,多出來的500多億美元將“全部計入毛利率”。他總結道:“如果乘以20倍,那就是1萬億美元。僅從汽車和全自動駕駛功能來看,就足以證明(今天的)估值是合理的。”

但是,特斯拉在2020年第四季度的業績并沒有顯示出達到市值1萬億美元以上所需要的進展速度,甚至連現在的8000億美元都略顯乏力。原因在于,特斯拉并沒有將強勁增長的營收轉化為利潤。相反,公司利用競爭車企避開加州、歐盟等地區罰款的需求,依賴于向競爭車企出售碳排放配額以盈利。

特斯拉宣布,2020年第四季度,按照公認會計準則計算的稅前收入為11.54億美元。與2019年同期6.65億美元的虧損相比,這似乎是一個很大的進步。

但倘若深入研究這些數字,不難發現這些“進步”的背后,是兜售碳排放配額的成果。2020年,碳排放配額交易為特斯拉提供了共計15.8億美元的收入(幾乎可以視為全部稅前利潤),而2019年這一數字是5.94億美元,一年內增翻了三倍之多。因此,如果沒有這些碳排放收入,特斯拉基礎的汽車和電池業務的利潤將從凈虧損12.59億美元上升至凈虧損4.26億美元——這樣來看,特斯拉并沒有在第四季度扭虧為盈。如果沒有競爭車企購買碳排放配額,特斯拉將出現2200萬美元的稅前虧損。

特斯拉售賣碳排放配額達到巨額營收,這樣的情形還能夠持續多久?目前尚不可知。在財報電話會議上,特斯拉的首席財務官扎克·柯克霍恩解釋道:“碳排放的銷售額極難預測。2020年的銷售額就超過了我們的預期。”

他強調:“銷售額可能會在幾個季度內保持強勁,但也可能不會。”據柯克霍恩預計,過渡期結束之后,“就長期來看,碳排放銷售將不再是我們業務的主要組成部分”。

特斯拉翻了近三倍的營收,源于其與車企菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)在歐洲達成的一項協議。從去年開始,歐盟將歐洲汽車制造商生產的每輛車的排放要求降低了30%左右(以每輛車的平均年銷售量計算)。但同時,歐盟允許超過這一界線的車企與競爭車企合作,形成“排放池”,每輛車的排放低于界線將獲得額外的積分。而作為一家純電動汽車企業,特斯拉擁有大量積分。車企之間可以互相買賣積分,特斯拉因此得以大量盈利。據報道,特斯拉與菲亞特克萊斯勒的這一合作每年帶來約12億美元的收入,占到2020年特斯拉總收入的大部分。

但特斯拉從菲亞特克萊斯勒拿到的這筆意外之財很快就會消退,盡管具體時間還未可知。今年1月,菲亞特克萊斯勒與法國標志雪鐵龍集團(Group PSA)合并,成立了Stellantis。作為主要電動汽車制造商之一,標志雪鐵龍已經符合歐盟的新法規。菲亞特也早在結盟之前就宣布,其進軍電動汽車領域的舉措將在2021年大幅減少對碳排放配額的需求,并在2022年使其獨立。標致雪鐵龍向來專注于電氣化傳動系統和平臺,這次合并也加速了菲亞特車型向電動汽車的轉變。

從菲亞特克萊斯勒損失的收入,特斯拉似乎將從本田(Honda)那里收回,后者最近也加入了“排放池”行列。據報道,新協議要求本田每年向特斯拉支付約1億美元。

如果拜登政府增加奧巴馬-拜登領導下的碳排放積分,特斯拉可能會得到提振。特朗普政府限制了積分的發放,但歐盟積分激增抵消了來自美國的不利影響,讓特斯拉的碳排放總銷售額翻了一番,并在今年實現了盈利。倘若美國聯邦碳排放積分增加,銷售額將有所提振,但特斯拉仍然預計,在未來幾個季度之后,碳排放銷售將不會是其營收大頭。

在不久的將來,特斯拉需要做到它現在沒有做的事情:靠汽車和電池來盈利。利潤的數值必須足夠向投資者證明,特斯拉的確是一個奇跡,它從0碼加速到60碼的速度比歷史上任何一輛車都要快。(財富中文網)

編譯:楊二一

雖然埃隆·馬斯克剛剛說過,特斯拉的估值接近萬億美元,但其第四季度財報數據卻很“打臉”。特斯拉發布的第四季度財報顯示,如果沒有碳排放交易支撐,光靠賣車、電池這些核心業務,特斯拉目前仍然在虧損。簡而言之,馬斯克并沒有展示出足夠實現公司目標的力量。如果他不能踩足利潤的油門,讓特斯拉公司像行將推出的Model S Plaid那樣加速行駛,其投資者、擁護者們可能很快就會失去信心。

在1月28日的特斯拉收益電話會議上,首席執行官馬斯克對批評人士和做空者多年來所持的“電動汽車巨頭被嚴重高估”觀點表示反駁。本周早些時候,特斯拉的市值徘徊在8800億美元左右。在開幕致辭中,馬斯克給出了“證明”特斯拉市值的“粗略數字”——他預計,常規車型(如Model S、3、X、Y系列)和熱門產品的銷售收入約為500億美元至600億美元,而向全自動駕駛汽車(FSD)的轉變將讓公司未來的銷售收入“再翻一番”,多出來的500多億美元將“全部計入毛利率”。他總結道:“如果乘以20倍,那就是1萬億美元。僅從汽車和全自動駕駛功能來看,就足以證明(今天的)估值是合理的。”

但是,特斯拉在2020年第四季度的業績并沒有顯示出達到市值1萬億美元以上所需要的進展速度,甚至連現在的8000億美元都略顯乏力。原因在于,特斯拉并沒有將強勁增長的營收轉化為利潤。相反,公司利用競爭車企避開加州、歐盟等地區罰款的需求,依賴于向競爭車企出售碳排放配額以盈利。

特斯拉宣布,2020年第四季度,按照公認會計準則計算的稅前收入為11.54億美元。與2019年同期6.65億美元的虧損相比,這似乎是一個很大的進步。

但倘若深入研究這些數字,不難發現這些“進步”的背后,是兜售碳排放配額的成果。2020年,碳排放配額交易為特斯拉提供了共計15.8億美元的收入(幾乎可以視為全部稅前利潤),而2019年這一數字是5.94億美元,一年內增翻了三倍之多。因此,如果沒有這些碳排放收入,特斯拉基礎的汽車和電池業務的利潤將從凈虧損12.59億美元上升至凈虧損4.26億美元——這樣來看,特斯拉并沒有在第四季度扭虧為盈。如果沒有競爭車企購買碳排放配額,特斯拉將出現2200萬美元的稅前虧損。

特斯拉售賣碳排放配額達到巨額營收,這樣的情形還能夠持續多久?目前尚不可知。在財報電話會議上,特斯拉的首席財務官扎克·柯克霍恩解釋道:“碳排放的銷售額極難預測。2020年的銷售額就超過了我們的預期。”

他強調:“銷售額可能會在幾個季度內保持強勁,但也可能不會。”據柯克霍恩預計,過渡期結束之后,“就長期來看,碳排放銷售將不再是我們業務的主要組成部分”。

特斯拉翻了近三倍的營收,源于其與車企菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)在歐洲達成的一項協議。從去年開始,歐盟將歐洲汽車制造商生產的每輛車的排放要求降低了30%左右(以每輛車的平均年銷售量計算)。但同時,歐盟允許超過這一界線的車企與競爭車企合作,形成“排放池”,每輛車的排放低于界線將獲得額外的積分。而作為一家純電動汽車企業,特斯拉擁有大量積分。車企之間可以互相買賣積分,特斯拉因此得以大量盈利。據報道,特斯拉與菲亞特克萊斯勒的這一合作每年帶來約12億美元的收入,占到2020年特斯拉總收入的大部分。

但特斯拉從菲亞特克萊斯勒拿到的這筆意外之財很快就會消退,盡管具體時間還未可知。今年1月,菲亞特克萊斯勒與法國標志雪鐵龍集團(Group PSA)合并,成立了Stellantis。作為主要電動汽車制造商之一,標志雪鐵龍已經符合歐盟的新法規。菲亞特也早在結盟之前就宣布,其進軍電動汽車領域的舉措將在2021年大幅減少對碳排放配額的需求,并在2022年使其獨立。標致雪鐵龍向來專注于電氣化傳動系統和平臺,這次合并也加速了菲亞特車型向電動汽車的轉變。

從菲亞特克萊斯勒損失的收入,特斯拉似乎將從本田(Honda)那里收回,后者最近也加入了“排放池”行列。據報道,新協議要求本田每年向特斯拉支付約1億美元。

如果拜登政府增加奧巴馬-拜登領導下的碳排放積分,特斯拉可能會得到提振。特朗普政府限制了積分的發放,但歐盟積分激增抵消了來自美國的不利影響,讓特斯拉的碳排放總銷售額翻了一番,并在今年實現了盈利。倘若美國聯邦碳排放積分增加,銷售額將有所提振,但特斯拉仍然預計,在未來幾個季度之后,碳排放銷售將不會是其營收大頭。

在不久的將來,特斯拉需要做到它現在沒有做的事情:靠汽車和電池來盈利。利潤的數值必須足夠向投資者證明,特斯拉的確是一個奇跡,它從0碼加速到60碼的速度比歷史上任何一輛車都要快。(財富中文網)

編譯:楊二一

Elon Musk just claimed that, no kidding, Tesla's really worth its nearly-trillion dollar valuation. His Q4 earnings report, however, shows that right now, Tesla would still be booking losses if it weren't for a boom in a profit center far removed from its core of cars and batteries: Selling CO2 regulatory credits. Put simply, Musk's not showing the firepower to get there. If he doesn't hit the accelerator on profits, and get Tesla speeding like the forthcoming Model S Plaid that he lauded as the first commercial zero-to-sixty speedster ever, his investor/fans could soon lose faith.

On Tesla's earnings call after the bell on January 28, CEO Musk countered critics and short-sellers who've been claiming and wagering for years that his electric-vehicle colossus is wildly overvalued. In his opening remarks, Musk gave his "back of the envelope math for justifying" Tesla's market cap, hovering around $880 billion the earlier in the week. Musk predicted that the shift to Full Self-Driving vehicles (FSD) would produce "a doubling again" of future revenues from the $50 to $60 billion he's projecting from selling his regular lineup of models S, 3, X, Y, and hits to come, and that the extra $50-billion plus would be "all gross margin." "Put on 20 multiple," he concluded, "and that's $1 trillion, which "justifies [today's] valuation just from cars and FSD."

The fourth quarter results, however, aren't showing anything like the pace of progress needed to get to $1 trillion-plus, or even sustain Tesla's current market cap of well over $800 billion. The reason: Tesla isn't turning generally robustly-rising revenues into profits. Instead, it's relying on those sales of regulatory credits to competitors that need them to avoid fines in jurisdictions such as California and the E.U.

In Q4, Tesla announced that for the year, it posted pre-tax GAAP income of $1.154 billion, in what looks like a big improvement from last year's deficit of $665 million.

Dig into the numbers, however, and you'll find that all of that "progress" and then some comes from hawking the credits. In 2020, that line item furnished $1.58 billion in revenues, which we can reasonably assume is virtually all pre-tax profit. That's almost triple the $594 million total from CO2 sales 2019. Hence, without the income from those credits, the profits from Tesla's basic car and battery businesses would have advanced from a negative $1.259 billion to a still loss-making $426 million. Tesla didn't turn the corner in Q4: It would have posted a pre-tax deficit of $22 million sans the bounty from rivals buying its credits.

It's uncertain how long how Tesla will be pocketing the big CO2 sales that this year, accounted for its much ballyhooed swing from loss to profit. On the earnings call, CFO Zach Kirkhorn explained that "Regulatory sales are an extremely difficult area to forecast. 2020 sales were higher than our expectations."

He went on to stress that "It's possible for a handful of quarters that they remain strong, and possibly not." But Kirkhorn foresees that after that interim period, regulatory sales "in the long-term will not be a material part of our business."

The almost three-fold jump in those revenues sprung mainly from a deal Tesla forged with in Europe with Fiat Chrysler. Starting last year, the E.U. lowered the emissions requirements per car, averaged across the yearly number sold, for European automakers by around 30%. But it also allowed manufacturers that are over-the-limit to form "pools" with competitors that win extra credits for emissions-per-auto that are under the threshold. So as an all-EV enterprise, Tesla is loaded with those credits. Its pooling with Fiat Chrysler is reportedly producing around $1.2 billion a year in regulatory revenue, accounting for the bulk of Tesla's total in 2020.

But the Fiat Chrysler windfall will fade soon, though the timetable is uncertain. In January, it merged with Group PSA of France to form Stellantis. PSA as a major EV manufacturer was already in compliance with the new E.U. regs. Well before its union with PSA, Fiat Chrysler had announced that its own move into electric vehicles would drastically reduce its need for credits in 2021, and render it independent in 2022. The merger is accelerating the shift of Fiat Chrysler models to EVs, since PSA specializes in electrified drivetrains and platforms.

It appears that Tesla will recoup part of the lost revenue from Fiat Chrysler from Honda, which need the credits and recently joined the pool. The new deal reportedly calls for Honda to pay Tesla around $100 million annually.

Tesla could get a boost if the Biden Administration increases the regulatory credits championed under Obama-Biden. The Trump regime curbed those credits, but the surge from the E.U. overwhelmed the slowdown in the U.S., enabling Tesla to multiply its overall regulatory sales, and this year, turn a profit. More U.S. federal credits would help, but once again, Tesla doesn't expect the category to be a significant contributor after the next few quarters.

Tesla will soon need to do what it's not doing now, generate earnings from cars and batteries. And those profits must prove to investors that Tesla is indeed the wonder that can go from zero to sixty faster than any vehicle in history.

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