在無數(shù)人的翹首期盼下，沙特阿美石油公司在上周末終于宣布了該公司即將在沙特證券交易所上市的計劃。作為全球最賺錢的一家公司，沙特阿美很有可能創(chuàng)造史上最大規(guī)模IPO的紀(jì)錄。但圍繞該公司的上市，目前仍然有很多問題尚未得到解答。

首先是投資者對這家全球最大石油生產(chǎn)商的估值毫無頭緒。各大投行對沙特阿美的估值產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重分歧，有的給出了2.3萬億美元的高估值，有的還不到它的一半，只報出了1.2萬億美元。高盛算是報得比較高的一家。高盛也是沙特阿美選定的27家承銷商之一。

即便沙特阿美的IPO價格落在了比較低的區(qū)間，它仍然將是有史以來規(guī)模最大的IPO，幾乎達(dá)到了阿里巴巴（2014年上市）的5倍。

收益大過蘋果和微軟

沙特阿美的強(qiáng)大是勿庸置疑的。2018年，該公司的營收達(dá)3560億美元，凈利潤達(dá)到1110億美元。（是的，有些公司要等到盈利后才敢去IPO。）這個數(shù)字甚至超過了最近一個財年微軟和蘋果凈收入的總和。

作為一家國有企業(yè)，沙特阿美的單日最大石油產(chǎn)量在1200萬桶上下，約占全球石油總產(chǎn)量的八分之一左右。

另外，沙特阿美今年還同意以690億美元收購沙特基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)公司（SABIC）的多數(shù)股權(quán)，從而成為了全球化工行業(yè)的一個重要參與者。

憑借如此雄厚的資本，沙特阿美絕對稱得上是“沙特王冠上的一顆明珠”。沙特阿拉伯近幾年一直在討論推動該公司的部分資產(chǎn)上市。而上市對于這樣一家公司來說，也算是一場革命性的轉(zhuǎn)型了。

市場估值未達(dá)到王儲要求

沙特王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼希望通過沙特阿美的上市融資，幫助國家逐步擺脫對石油收一的過分依賴，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的多樣化轉(zhuǎn)型。他曾經(jīng)自信地表示，沙特阿美的估值至少應(yīng)該在2萬億美元以上。沙特阿美原計劃在海外上市，但這樣的話，該公司的一舉一動都會被國際投資者放在顯微鏡下看。現(xiàn)在沙特已經(jīng)決定擱置赴海外上市的計劃，改為先在本國的沙特證券交易所上市。

沙特阿美在上周日公布上市計劃時，并未透露打算上市銷售的股份比例，不過外界認(rèn)為，沙特阿美此次拋出的股份應(yīng)該只有幾個百分點(diǎn)，低于最初設(shè)想的5%的比例。這些問題在沙特阿美于11月9日公布招股書時應(yīng)該會得到澄清。而股票的正式發(fā)行則要等到12月了。

英國貿(mào)易公司IG的首席市場分析師克里斯·比徹姆表示，據(jù)他聽說，沙特人自己對沙特阿美的估值大約在1.5萬億美元左右，這也基本符合IG公司的預(yù)期。

他表示：“我認(rèn)為，沙特人不會讓它的估值下降到1.2萬億美元左右，因為這樣對公司的聲望影響太大。但是他們也不會讓它的估值達(dá)到2萬億美元的高位，因為在這個水平上，人們就會有很多疑慮。”

不過他也對《財富》雜志表示，現(xiàn)在還很難說1.5萬億美元的估值是否現(xiàn)實。

“這個估值是否包含了對地緣政治危機(jī)或者對沙特政局風(fēng)險的足夠的風(fēng)險溢價？可能沒有。當(dāng)然了，如果它能夠每天產(chǎn)出1160萬桶石油，人人都會想來分一杯羹的。”

他認(rèn)為，只要沙特阿美的發(fā)行價定得不是太高，這次IPO成功的機(jī)率還是很大的。鑒于該公司在石油行業(yè)舉足輕重的地位，很多大型國際投資者對它也會有興趣。不過他也補(bǔ)充道：“如果你是一只規(guī)模比較小的基金，或是一只主要關(guān)注國內(nèi)的基金，你還是要三思而后行。”

沙特阿美的首席執(zhí)行官阿明·納賽爾在上周日表示，沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)做出了推動沙特阿美上市的決定，以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化，增強(qiáng)本國股市的流動性，提高沙特吸引國內(nèi)外投資的能力。

上市還能提高沙特阿美的國際知名度。“作為一家上市公司，必須公開大量的信息，到時會有很多分析師審查我們的數(shù)據(jù)，并且與其他上市公司做比較。我們很樂意去做這樣的比較，因為作為一家公司，我們對自己的成績是很驕傲的。”納賽爾表示。

投資風(fēng)險：氣候變化和人權(quán)問題

上市公司吸引投資者的主要手段之一是分紅。沙特阿美在這方面也不會令人失望。預(yù)計每年，該公司將向投資者派發(fā)至少750億美元紅利。

目前不太確定的，是該公司的資債情況。沙特阿美的利潤與國際油價密切相關(guān)。不過今年以來，由于供給過剩、中美貿(mào)易爭端和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長疲軟等問題，全球油價也始終趨于疲軟。可以想見，等它上市后，它的股價走勢也會與油價息息相關(guān)。

另外，該公司的碳排放量也是一個不容忽視的問題。投資者可能會想，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，各國都在大力削減溫室氣體排放，全球汽車市場正在加速電動化，可再生能源扮演的角色也越來越重要，在這樣的大背景下，大型石油企業(yè)的前景還能看漲嗎？

另外，投資沙特阿美也是有一定的政治風(fēng)險的。比如今年9月，也門胡塞武裝用無人機(jī)襲擊了沙特阿美的兩座石油加工廠，直接導(dǎo)致沙特全國的石油產(chǎn)量被腰斬，油價飆升。不過到了10月初，沙特的石油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到正常水平，全球油價也已經(jīng)下跌，并趨于穩(wěn)定。

另外，沙特阿拉伯的人權(quán)問題也吸引了國際社會的普遍關(guān)注。去年，沙特記者賈馬爾·哈蘇吉在沙特駐土耳其伊斯坦布爾領(lǐng)事館內(nèi)被殺害，據(jù)說下手的是沙特的特工。此事引起了國際社會的強(qiáng)烈憤慨，并直接危及了沙特的經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化計劃。

在上周日的新聞發(fā)布會上，當(dāng)被問到投資沙特阿美是否安全時，該公司的董事長亞塞爾·阿爾-魯瑪揚(yáng)表示，沙特阿拉伯會保護(hù)股東的權(quán)利，投資沙特阿美是很安全的。他表示：“我認(rèn)為不僅是沙特阿拉伯，整個世界都會關(guān)注這個地區(qū)以及這家公司的安全問題。”

分析人士指出，押注沙特阿美，就相當(dāng)于押注了整個沙特阿拉伯王國。

今年6月，倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院的比較政治學(xué)副教授斯蒂芬·赫托格曾經(jīng)指出，沙特阿美已經(jīng)承擔(dān)了“越來越多與石油無關(guān)的國內(nèi)發(fā)展任務(wù)，獲得了越來越多的國際投資，并且將間接地為沙特政府籌集巨額債務(wù)”。

赫托格在學(xué)術(shù)期刊《牛津能源研究所》（Oxford Institute for Energy Studies）上寫道：“沙特阿美的國有屬性，既反映了它的實力，也給了它相當(dāng)大的政治資本。但是這種屬性同時也帶來了大量的非商業(yè)性的義務(wù)，而這些義務(wù)往往不是它自己造成的。”

在這篇文章中，赫托格還寫道：“2009年，沙特阿美被要求在吉達(dá)市建一座運(yùn)動場和體育城……一些觀察人士已經(jīng)懷疑，它是否正在變成一個‘代理政府’。”

換句話說，對于有意投資沙特阿美的投資者來說，沙特阿美絕非一家通常意義上的“獨(dú)角獸”公司。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

The world’s most profitable company, Saudi Aramco, has left many questions unanswered after announced last weekend its long-awaited plans to list shares on the Saudi stock exchange in what will likely be the world’s biggest-ever IPO.

Most prominently, investors are none the wiser about how an IPO would value the world’s biggest oil producer. Investment banks’ estimates of the oil giant’s valuation vary wildly—anywhere from $2.3 trillion to roughly half that, at $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs comes in on the high end of that range. It’s also one of the 27 banks Aramco chose to market the deal to investors.

Even if Aramco debuts on the low end of the range, it will still be the biggest ever, nearly five times bigger than Alibaba’s 2014 listing.

Bigger than Apple and Microsoft, too

Nobody is disputing that the Aramco numbers are huge. The company reported revenues of $356 billion in 2018 and a net profit of $111 billion. (Yes, some companies wait to IPO after they’ve turned a profit). That’s more than the combined net income reported by Microsoft and Apple in their most recent fiscal years.

State-owned Saudi Aramco has a maximum output capacity of around 12 million barrels of oil per day, or around one in eight barrels produced worldwide.

Aramco is also set to become a big player in the global chemical industry after agreeing to buy a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp, SABIC, for $69 billion this year.

With such a portfolio, Saudi Arabia has been talking for several years about floating a portion of Aramco in what would be a revolution for a company treasured as a Saudi crown jewel.

Undershooting the prince

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to sell a piece to the public to help fund the kingdom’s ambitions to diversify away from oil, has spoken confidently of a valuation of $2 trillion or more. But plans for an international listing, which would have exposed the company to the full glare of international investors’ scrutiny, has been replaced for now with a plan to list shares first on the Saudi exchange, the Tadawul.

utlining its plans on last Sunday, the company did not reveal what percentage of its shares it seeks to sell, though it is expected to be just a few per cent, less than the 5% initially envisaged. That should be cleared up when it issues a prospectus on Nov. 9; shares are expected to be listed in December.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at U.K. trading firm IG, said he was hearing that even the Saudis themselves were seeking a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for Saudi Aramco, in line with IG’s expectations.

“I don’t think the Saudis would let it go for down to $1.2 (trillion) because it would be probably too much of a prestige thing, whereas they are not going to get it to $2 (trillion) because people are too skeptical, I think, at that level.”

It was hard to say if $1.5 trillion was a realistic valuation, he told Fortune.

“Does it include enough risk premium for any geopolitical disruption, any political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia? Maybe it doesn’t. But of course if it is producing 11.6 million barrels per day, everyone will want a slice of that pie.”

He believes the IPO is likely to succeed, provided the price isn’t pitched too high, and that there will be interest from large international investors given the company’s importance. Although, he added, “if you’re a much smaller fund, or a domestic focused fund, you’d probably think twice about it.”

Aramco’s Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on last Sunday that Saudi Arabia had taken the decision to float to diversify the economy and to strengthen the local stock market’s liquidity and its ability to attract national as well as international investment.

The IPO would also increase Saudi Aramco’s visibility internationally. “By sharing a lot of information, as required by any listed company, there will be a lot of analysts that will review our data and compare it with other listed companies, and we would love to have that type of comparisons, because we are a company that are proud of our results,” he said.

Investment risks include: climate change, human rights

One way to attract investors is through a big fat dividend. And the company won’t disappoint there, expecting to pay out at least $75 billion annually to investors.

Less certain is the company’s bottom line. Saudi Aramco’s profits are closely linked to oil prices, which have been depressed this year because of oversupply, the U.S.-China trade war, and weak economic growth. It’s very likely its share price will be similarly tied to the ups and downs of a barrel of crude, too.

And then there’s the not insignificant matter of the company’s carbon footprint. Investors will be wondering: longer term, do big oil companies have a future given the global drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions, leading to the increasing use of electric cars and a growing role for renewable energy?

The political risks of investing in Saudi Aramco were dramatically highlighted in September as well. That’s when Yemen’s Houthi group apparently used drones to attack two Saudi Aramco oil processing plants, cutting Saudi oil output by half and sending oil prices through the roof. By early October, though, oil production had returned to normal and global prices have fall, and stabilized.

The listing comes as many continue to monitor the country’s track human rights track record. Last year, Saudi agents allegedly killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, causing international outrage and jeopardizing the kingdom’s economic diversification plans.

Asked how safe an investment in Saudi Aramco would be, Aramco Chairman Yasser al-Rumayyan told last Sunday’s news conference that Saudi Arabia protected shareholders’ rights and an investment would be very safe. “I think the whole wide world, not only Saudi Arabia, will be looking after the safety of this region and this company,” he said.

Analysts note that taking a bet on Saudi Aramco is equivalent to taking a bet on the entire kingdom.

Steffen Hertog, associate professor in comparative politics at the London School of Economics, said in June that the company had been taking on “increasing non-oil domestic development tasks, has acquired growing international investments, and is set to indirectly raise significant debt for the Saudi government.”

“Saudi Aramco’s prominent national role reflects its capabilities and gives it considerable political capital. It also comes with significant non-commercial obligations, however, which often are not of its own making,” Hertog wrote in the journal of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“When Aramco was tasked with the building of a stadium and sports city in Jeddah in 2009 … some observers already wondered whether it was being turned into a surrogate government,” he wrote.

In other words, prospective investor, this is no unicorn.