約翰·施利夫斯基熟悉股票市場。在成為西北互助人壽保險公司的CEO之前，有20多年時間，公司數十億美元投資如何進行一直都由他決定。因此，如果他說自己看好股市，那就值得一聽。

我在今年6月和施利夫斯基進行交流時，他列出了自己看好股市的原因，包括沒有衰退跡象，貨幣政策寬松，沒有需要擔心的重大泡沫，公司業績表現強勁，企業有現金，美國消費者很強大以及工資呈上升態勢。

施利夫斯基說：“總之，還沒有任何因素讓我覺得不該看好股市。我們觀察的經濟指標大概有15個，其中呈現黃色警示的只有兩個。其他的都是綠色正常狀態。”

在近期股市下跌后，他還是這么看的嗎？沒錯，確實如此。我在8月給他發了電子郵件，他作答時的樂觀程度只是略有下降。

施利夫斯基寫道：“盈利數據下降，制造業明顯低迷，原因是這種環境下公司不愿投資。不過，消費者的表現依然強勁，除了收益率曲線，其他指標仍然是綠色。一句話，風險增大了，但基本情況仍然有利于經濟增長，只是不像剛剛減稅后那么有利。”

對通過西北互助人壽將退休、教育和人壽儲蓄用于投資的數百萬人來說，施利夫斯基對市場的判斷很關鍵。這家總部設在威斯康星州密爾沃基的公司已經成功經營了160多年，并以近300億美元的營業收入在美國《財富》500強中排名第111位。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

John Schlifske knows his way aroud the stock market. Before he became CEO of Northwestern Mutual, for more than 20 years he was calling the shots on how to invest the firm’s huge multi-billion dollar portfolio. So when he says he’s bullish on the markets, it’s worth listening why.

When I spoke with Schilfske in June, he ticked off the reasons for his optimism. No signs of recession. Easy monetary policy. No major bubbles to worry about. Earnings are strong. Companies have cash. The US consumer is strong. Wages are rising.

“All in all, there’s nothing to make me think not to be bullish,” Schlifske says. “We look at about 15 economic indicators and there’s only a couple that are even yellow. The rest are green.”

Does he still feel that way given the recent stock market selloff? Yes, actually. When I emailed him in August, he responded with a slightly tempered view.

“Earnings numbers are coming in softer and manufacturing weakness is evident as companies are hesitating to invest in this environment,” he wrote. “The consumer continues to be strong, however, and indicators other than the yield curve are still green. In short, risks have increased but the base case is still favorable for economic growth, albeit less than we saw post tax cuts.”

Schlifske’s call on the markets is critical for the millions of people who rely on Northwestern Mutual to invest their savings for retirement, education, and life insurance protection. The Milwaukee, Wisconsin based company has been doing that successfully for more than 160 years. With revenues of nearly $30 billion the company is number 111 on the Fortune 500 list of the largest companies in America.