美國(guó)中期選舉終于塵埃落定，民主黨人重新奪回了眾議院的控制權(quán)，而共和黨依舊把持著參議院。這次大選對(duì)股市有何影響？有不少證券投資者將目光投向六個(gè)板塊。

盡管選舉結(jié)果出來(lái)之后，標(biāo)普500期貨指數(shù)小幅走高，但下面這些才是未來(lái)一段時(shí)間美股市場(chǎng)最有可能出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)的板塊：

分析師們認(rèn)為，隨著兩黨在國(guó)會(huì)山形成均勢(shì)，藥品定價(jià)限制的威脅短期不復(fù)存在，因此制藥和生物科技板塊或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)上漲。另外，一個(gè)分裂的政府不太可能出臺(tái)大規(guī)模支出計(jì)劃，因此工業(yè)股可能將繼續(xù)萎靡。至于科技板塊，不論國(guó)會(huì)的風(fēng)朝哪個(gè)方向吹，科技公司面臨的監(jiān)管都將只多不少。對(duì)于銀行板塊，由于特朗普政府的銀監(jiān)機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)扎實(shí)就位，預(yù)計(jì)銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)將不會(huì)面臨更嚴(yán)苛的監(jiān)管。能源股的情況比較復(fù)雜，地方選舉的結(jié)果將對(duì)油氣生產(chǎn)商產(chǎn)生巨大影響，而目前結(jié)果還不明朗。最后是大麻股。美國(guó)有四個(gè)州對(duì)大麻合法化問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了投票，北達(dá)科他州和密歇根州還就大麻的“休閑用途”進(jìn)行了投票。不過(guò)大麻在聯(lián)邦層面仍然是非法的。另外值得注意的是，大多數(shù)板塊都會(huì)受到貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)影響。政策觀察家大都對(duì)中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是否將出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)持懷疑態(tài)度。而在美國(guó)以外，各大新興市場(chǎng)基本都在增長(zhǎng)。

不過(guò)也有一些市場(chǎng)觀察人士表示，此次中期選舉不會(huì)對(duì)股市行情造成太大波動(dòng)。

地平線投資公司（Horizon Investments LLC）的首席全球策略師格雷格·威利亞認(rèn)為，如果有些投資者擔(dān)心出現(xiàn)利率變動(dòng)等更大的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化，那么此次選舉對(duì)他們“影響有限”。加拿大帝國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的投資策略總監(jiān)伊安·迪·維爾特伊則寫(xiě)道：從歷史上看，雖然總統(tǒng)所在的政黨經(jīng)常在中期選舉中損失席位，但“歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)證明，股市在中期選舉之后一般表現(xiàn)良好。”

下面是華爾街對(duì)于幾大值得關(guān)注的行業(yè)的看法：

· 制藥

美國(guó)中期選舉導(dǎo)致兩黨在國(guó)會(huì)中形成均勢(shì)，在面對(duì)藥價(jià)上漲的問(wèn)題上，預(yù)計(jì)兩黨的僵局也不大可能被打破，因此投資者們很可能會(huì)再度涌入制藥和生物科技板塊。分析師認(rèn)為，國(guó)會(huì)的僵局可能會(huì)維持至少兩年以上，這也大大降低了出現(xiàn)由政府主導(dǎo)的藥價(jià)調(diào)控的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

主要跟蹤生物技術(shù)板塊的一只三倍杠桿率的ETF基金在美股常規(guī)交易開(kāi)盤(pán)前上漲了1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，交易量達(dá)1500股。

· 銀行

分析師預(yù)計(jì)，銀行板短期內(nèi)將面臨一些壓力，但這并非全然是壞事。多數(shù)市場(chǎng)觀察人士認(rèn)為，隨著特朗普政府的監(jiān)管部門(mén)已扎實(shí)就位，特朗普很可能將繼續(xù)給銀行業(yè)“松綁”。Veda Partners公司的分析師亨利埃塔·特雷亞茲表示，此次中期選舉本身就有助于消除不確定性因素，有可能幫助股市上漲。

在美股開(kāi)盤(pán)前，三倍杠桿率的Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF基金上漲了2.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，交易量2500多股。

· 科技

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司在經(jīng)歷了多年的快速增長(zhǎng)后已顯出趨冷跡象，同時(shí)，它也罕見(jiàn)地成為兩黨同時(shí)抨擊的對(duì)象。雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的華盛頓政策分析師艾德·米爾斯表示：“科技行業(yè)已經(jīng)上了華盛頓議事日程接近榜首的位置，而以前它甚至不在華盛頓的議事日程上。”Compass Point公司的高級(jí)政策分析師艾薩克·博爾坦斯基則認(rèn)為，短期內(nèi)華盛頓可能會(huì)就科技行業(yè)的監(jiān)管召開(kāi)更多聽(tīng)證會(huì)，而不是直接對(duì)監(jiān)管政策進(jìn)行改革。

· 工業(yè)

高盛的分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為，雖然基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)仍是國(guó)會(huì)的爭(zhēng)論焦點(diǎn)，但美國(guó)政府不太可能出臺(tái)大規(guī)模的支出計(jì)劃。在高盛分析師看來(lái)，如果共和黨繼續(xù)控制參眾兩院，由于財(cái)政捉襟見(jiàn)肘，國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)法案的機(jī)率只有25%。而“如果民主黨控制了參眾兩院中的一個(gè)或兩個(gè)，政府出臺(tái)大規(guī)模基建計(jì)劃的可能性甚至?xí)汀薄?/p>

· 能源

瑞銀認(rèn)為，中期選舉對(duì)能源行業(yè)的影響較低。“除非國(guó)會(huì)改變了共和黨對(duì)伊朗的制裁政策（對(duì)伊制裁也是導(dǎo)致油價(jià)走高的原因之一），否則國(guó)會(huì)不太可能影響到這個(gè)板塊。”

· 大麻

分析人士認(rèn)為，隨著民主黨入主眾議院和司法部長(zhǎng)杰夫·塞申斯的去職，美國(guó)的大麻股短期內(nèi)可能出現(xiàn)飆升。銀行業(yè)規(guī)則的明晰有助于縮小美股與加拿大股市的估值差異。在州一級(jí)，北達(dá)科他州和密歇根州已在就大麻合法化進(jìn)行投票，而密蘇里州和猶他州也將就醫(yī)用大麻提案進(jìn)行表決。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Equity investors are eyeing six key sectors after the midterm elections resulted in the Democrats seizing control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.

While S&P 500 futures edged higher, here are the sectors most likely to see moves:

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks may gain if the stalemate takes away the threat of drug pricing restrictions, analysts have said. They forecast that industrials would continue to languish under a divided government as a major spending package would be unlikley. Technology stock investors can expect more regulatory scrutiny, an outcome analysts expected no matter where congressional control would up. Banks and financial shares most likely won’t face tighter regulations as President Donald Trump’s regulators are firmly in place. It’s more complicated for energy shares, with the outcome of local races setting the tone for oil and gas producers. Those results remained unclear. And then there’s pot stocks. Marijuana legalization is on the ballot in four states, including recreational pot use in North Dakota and Michigan. Pot remains illegal at the federal level. Meanwhile, most sectors have to deal with the trade war. Policy watchers are skeptical there will be a shift toward China on trade. Outside the U.S., emerging markets are seeing gains.

To be sure, some market watchers say not much will change and it’s mostly just about playing defense.

Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments LLC, said the election may have “only a modest impact on investors” who have bigger macro worries, including rising interest rates. And CIBC’s head of portfolio strategy Ian de Verteui writes that “history suggests equities do fine post-midterms” even when they often result in the president’s party losing seats.

Here’s what Wall Street is saying about key industries to watch:

· DRUGMAKERS

Investors may pile back into pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks now that midterm U.S. elections resulted in the expected stalemate between two major parties at odds on how to tackle escalating drug prices. Gridlock in Congress for at least the next two years would lessen the risk of disruptive, government-dictated pricing changes, according to analysts.

A three-time leveraged ETF tracking biotech companies advanced 1.2 percent before the start of regular U.S. trading, with 1,500 shares exchanging hands.

· BANKS

Analysts expect some near-term pressure on bank stocks but say it won’t be all bad news. Most market watchers anticipate Trump’s efforts to ease bank rules will continue, as his regulators are firmly in place. Veda Partners’ Henrietta Treyz said the very passing of the election itself will eliminate uncertainty and could help shares rise.

Before the U.S. market open, with more than 2,500 shares traded, the three-times leveraged Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF gained 2.3 percent

· TECHNOLOGY

Internet companies, which are already struggling amid signs of cooling after years of rapid growth, have emerged as a rare subject of bipartisan criticism. “Tech is taking its place at or near the top of the agenda. Previously, it wasn’t even on the agenda,” said Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Isaac Boltansky, senior policy analyst at Compass Point, suggested additional hearings are more likely than regulatory changes.

· INDUSTRIALS

Goldman analysts and economists believe a major spending package is unlikely, even as infrastructure stays a key focus in the legislative debate. They see only a 25 percent chance of an infrastructure spending bill if Republicans maintain control of both houses of Congress, due to financing difficulties, and “if Democrats take control of one or both chambers, our economists believe a major spending compromise is even less likely.”

· ENERGY

The midterms are seen having a “l(fā)ow” impact on the energy sector, according to UBS. “Barring a change in Republican support for the Iran sanctions — which have driven oil prices higher — Congress is unlikely to impact the sector,” UBS said.

· CANNABIS

As Democrats take the House and Attorney General Jeff Sessions departs, U.S.-focused pot stocks are likely to see a short-term surge, analysts say. Clarity on banking rules could help close the valuation gap between the U.S. stocks and their Canadian counterparts. At the state level, pot legalization is on the ballot in North Dakota and Michigan, while voters in Missouri and Utah will weigh in on medical marijuana proposals.