四月下旬，10年期國債利率四年來第一次升至3%，該利率是從抵押貸款到美國聯邦學生貸款的基準，走高部分原因是擔心通脹和預期今年美聯儲加息。可能只是個數字，但也是人人都十分關注的數字。如果繼續維持或進一步提升，可能推高抵押貸款利率和商業貸款利率。由此可能導致消費縮減，股市走低，投資者習慣了多年超低利率后或將被迫調整投資組合。

眼前就有例子：由于基準利率升至3%，企業收入疲軟，周二收盤時道瓊斯工業平均指數跌去400點，收于24024點。連續數日走低后股指較1月高點已下跌7.5%。

“這顯然是一段時間以來沒見過的心理水平，” 安聯投資管理公司高級投資策略師查理·瑞普利表示。“2014年以后就沒達到過3%，但當時也只是短暫觸及，很快便回落至低谷。”

數字“3”具有重要的心理意義還有其他證據，著名投資者也指出3%的利率水平是轉折點。“債券天王”杰夫·岡德拉奇就警告稱，雖然目前10年期國債沒高過3%，一旦超過，2018年底股市會進一步走低。古根海姆公司首席投資官斯科特·邁納德也警告稱，如果利率超過3%，債市就會跌入熊市。

不過，債券利率升至3%并非沒有先兆。美聯儲今年年初就已指出利率將走高，金佰利和惠而浦等公司周二早些時候也發出警告。亞德尼研究公司的埃德·亞德尼寫道，投資者理應為利率走高有所準備。

所以10年期國債利率達到3%對股市的影響會不會持續很久，還有待觀察。

“股市上可能有些短期反應，”PNC金融服務集團聯席首席戰略官杰夫·米爾斯表示。“利率走高打擊股市方面并沒有固定規律。也許股市沒問題。”

米爾斯表示，利率上升引發最大的擔心是，美聯儲加息會不會太快，將國債利率推高至3%以上。

“如果利率上漲過快過高，確實有可能出現（股市下跌），從而拖累經濟發展，”米爾斯表示。

有些投資者還擔心，長期債券與短期債券息差縮窄。通常兩年期債券收益超過10年期國債時，說明經濟進入衰退。周二10年期國債利率約3%，現在兩年期債券約2.47%，相差約0.5個百分點。但今年初息差要大一些，約為0.6個百分點。

不過地平線投資公司的格雷格·瓦里耶表示，衰退的可能性不大。

“我們認為，隨著美聯儲逐漸收緊，要導致經濟發展失衡或股市走低，利率還要上升很多。近期出現衰退的幾率很低，尤其是現在失業率不到4%的情況下，”周二他在一份報告中寫道。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark used to price everything from mortgages to federal student loans, rose to 3% for the first time in four years on Tuesday in part due to fears of rising inflation and expectations of more Fed interest rate hikes this year.

It may be just a number—but it’s a number that is heavily watched. If sustained or pushed higher, it could lead to higher mortgage and business loan interest rates. It could also lead to reduced spending—pushing stocks lower, and forcing investors to rejigger their portfolios after years of ultra-low rates.

Case and point: Partly due to the yields reaching 3% and weaker corporate earnings on Tuesday, the Dow Industrial Average shed 400 points to 24,024 by the market’s close. That drop puts the market 7.5% lower than its peak in January following several days of declines.

“It’s definitely a psychological level we haven’t seen in a while,” says Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. “We haven’t seen 3% since 2014—and even then it was just briefly before we slid into all time lows.”

Adding to the number “3”‘s psychological importance: Famed investors have also pointed to a 3% rate as a turning point. “Bond King” Jeff Gundlach has warned that should the 10-year yield surpass 3%—which it has yet to do—stocks could close lower at the end of 2018. Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer Scott Minerd, meanwhile, warns that rate in excess of 3% signals a bear in the bond market.

Still, bond yields reaching 3% aren’t exactly coming out of nowhere. The Federal Reserve has pointed to raising inflation since the start of the year, while companies including Kimberly-Clark and Whirlpool warned earlier Tuesday of the same trend. It’s hard to think that investors haven’t, to some extent, prepared for higher yields, wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research.

So it remains to be seen if the effects of the 10-year note reaching 3% on the stock market will be long lasting.

“I think you may see some short term reactions in equity markets,” said PNC Financial Services Group co-chief investment strategist Jeff Mills. “There’s no hard and fast rule that rising rates have to be hard for stocks. The stock market may be just fine.”

The real worry underlying these rising yields, says Mills, is a fear about whether the Fed will raise rates too quickly—helping push treasuries further above 3%.

“There’s definitely potential for a sustained [drop in stocks] if rates run too far too fast, and the Fed tightens too quickly—that could slow down the economy,” Mills said.

What’s also causing some investors worry: A closing spread between the yield of long-term and short-term notes. When the yield on the two-year note exceeds that of the 10-year, it often signals a recession. While the 10-year yield is at about 3% Tuesday, the yield on the two-year note is now at about 2.47%—a difference of roughly 0.5 percentage points. But at the start of the year, that difference was further apart, about 0.6 percentage points.

However, a recession doesn’t look likely, says Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments.

“As the Fed gradually tightens, it will take rates significantly higher than current levels to derail economic growth or the stock market, in our opinion. A recession isn’t remotely imminent, not with the unemployment rate headed below 4%,” he wrote in a note Tuesday.