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投多少錢都是打水漂?看看Snap如何把大把資金燒沒了

投多少錢都是打水漂?看看Snap如何把大把資金燒沒了

Shawn Tully 2017-08-20
之前Snap出名的是自拍照閱后即焚,現在最擅長的則是把大把投資人的錢燒光。

8月10日,Snap公布的第二季度收入、利潤以及新用戶增速均低于分析師預期,這讓該公司已遭打擊的股價在本周一(8月14日)中午收盤時再次下挫10%。雖然沒有達到預期,但4-6月份Snap的銷售額仍增長了1.10億美元,增幅為152%。然而,費用上升了4.42億美元,280%的增速遠超收入,其中增長最快的是研發以及銷售和營銷費用。

為填補這個缺口,Snap燒掉了大量現金。在截止6月底的1年時間里,Snap為運營投入了7.47億美元。但遠不至此,它在收購方面也越發活躍。第二季度,Snap收購了法國公司Zenly。后者可以讓用戶在地圖上精確定位朋友的位置并追蹤其行程。總之,從2016年第二季度到2017年第二季度,Snap在收購上花掉了大約3.33億美元。

在這12個月里,Snap的運營和收購總支出幾乎達到11億美元。而在接下來的許多個季度中,它的赤字有可能繼續攀升。收入和成本的差距仍在拉大,收購也不斷出現。今年7月,Snap斥資1.35億美元買下了Placed,后者的軟件可以追蹤廣告主的采購情況。

也就是說,Snap燒錢力度只會大增。因此,大量現金儲備對Snap的長期經營來說就尤為重要。吸引足夠用戶,從而讓自己的照片共享產品盈利所需的時間很難確定,第二季度的低迷表現則讓這個時間的可預測性進一步大幅下降。今年3月Snap首發上市,融資26.58億美元。該公司發行了1.60億股新股,扣除傭金后的發行價為每股16.575美元。由于上市前就已經擁有足夠現金,Snap目前囤積的現金為28億美元。但這個數字遠不像聽上去那么令人放心。如果Snap繼續以目前每年遠超10億美元的速度燒錢,它就可能需要在不到2年的時間里開始創造大量利潤和自由現金流(假設Snap需要保留約5億美元來維持日常運營)。

現金問題讓人對Snap的IPO產生了懷疑。和往常一樣,投資機構大賺了一筆。承銷商設定的預售價為每股17美元,遠低于主要投資者愿意接受的水平(承銷商收取2.5%的傭金,所以Snap的凈首發價為16.575美元)。今年3月2日,也就是上市第二天,Snap的股價飆升至24.48美元,3月3日收于27.09美元。

當然,投資者隨后開始覺得Snap的價值遠低于24美元,甚至低于17美元的首發價。但就拿在手里的現金而言,重要的是:承銷商預售時投資機構愿意出的價錢。這個數字至少是24美元。所以,如果Snap的所有者要了這樣的高價,而不是為投資機構大打折扣,這家頂尖照片分享公司籌集到的資金就不是26.58億美元,而是38億美元。二者的差距超過11億美元,或41%。投資機構則應該成為忠實的長期股東,以示其感激之情。

如果這樣的話,Snap目前持有的現金就不是28億美元,而是39億。那么,按目前的燒錢速度,這筆資金能夠支撐的時間就不是最多2年,而是3年。多出來的這部分現金將使Snap的賬面價值上升11億美元,而且十有八九能讓它的市值出現同樣幅度的增長,這意味著,Snap的股價會比現在高8%。

大規模拋售已經證明,享受巨大折扣的投資者并不忠誠。和IPO時完全兌現自身價值相比,由于把11億美元現金留給了別人,Snap就得大大加快實現盈利的速度。5個月前看似夢幻的現金儲備現在已經顯得不那么讓人放心。Snap需要跑得比現金更快,目前它卻落在了后面。(財富中文網)

譯者:Charlie

On August 10, Snap announced second quarter revenues, earnings, and growth in new customers that fell below analysts' predictions, sending its already tanking stock down additional 10% by midday Monday, August 14. Despite trailing forecasts, Snap's sales for the three months ended June 30 rose $110 million, or 152%. Its expenses, however, far outpaced the surge in revenues, leaping from $442 million, or 280%, led by huge increases in R&D and sales and marketing.

To fill that chasm, Snap is burning gigantic amounts of cash. For the 12 months ended in June, it devoured $747 million in cash to fund its operations. But that's not nearly the total. Snap is an increasingly active acquirer. In Q2, it purchased Zenly of France, provider of maps that allow users to pinpoint their friends' precise locations and trace their travels. All told, Snap spent around $333 million in acquisitions in from Q2 '16 to Q2 '17.

Over that twelve-month span, the combined cash outlays on operations and acquisitions totaled almost $1.1 billion. That deficit is likely to keep growing for many quarters ahead. The gap between revenues and costs continues to expand. And the deals keep coming. In July, Snap bought Placed, whose software tracks purchases for advertisers, for $135 million.

So the cash burn will only intensify. Hence, a gigantic cash cushion is essential to furnish Snap a long runway. The time required to lure the multitudes needed to make its photo-sharing product profitable is highly uncertain, and became a lot less predictable following the dreary Q2 results. In March, Snap's vaunted IPO raised $2.658 billion by selling 160 million shares at a price, minus commissions, of $16.575. Since it already had plenty of cash before the IPO, Snap's horde now stands at $2.8 billion. That figure isn't nearly as comforting as it sounds. If Snap continues burning cash at the current rate of well over $1 billion a year, it probably has less than two years before it will need to start generating substantial profits and free cash flow (assuming that it will keep to maintain around $500 million to fund its daily operations).

The cash issue calls into question Snap's handling of its IPO. As usual, the institutions got a sweet deal. The underwriters pre-sold the shares at $17, far less than big investors were willing to pay. (Snap netted $16.575 after a 2.5% commission to underwriters.) On March 2, the day following the offering, Snap's stock soared to $24.48, and closed on March 3 at $27.09.

Of course, investors have since reckoned that Snap's worth a lot less than $24, or even the IPO price of $17. But for cash in the treasury, what matters is what the institutions would have paid when the underwriters pre-sold the shares. And that number is at least $24. So if Snap's owners had demanded top dollar, instead of handing a deep discount to money managers who were supposed to show their gratitude by remaining loyal, long-term holders, the photo-sharing phenom would have banked not $2.658 billion, but $3.8 billion. That's a difference of over $1.1 billion, or 41%.

Instead of its current $2.8 billion in cash, Snap would now be holding a horde of $3.9 billion. Instead of at most two years in cash at the current burn rate, it would be flush for three years. The extra cash would raise its book value by $1.1 billion, in all probability raising its market cap by the same amount, adding 8% to its stock price.

As the big selloff has proven, the investors who got a deep discount weren't loyal after all. Because it left $1.1 billion in the table, Snap needs achieve profitability far faster than if it had reaped what was then full value from its IPO. What looked like a fantastic cash cushion five months ago isn't looking so comforting now. Snap needs to beat the cash clock, and right now, it's losing the race.

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