本周二，蘋果股價已經是三月份第五次刷新紀錄了，這也是蘋果股價今年第11次刷新紀錄?，F在我們應該仔細觀察一下蘋果下一步將做些什么。蘋果一向是一個出色的顛覆者，且歷來堅持“自造不外購”。然而由于蘋果上周推出的新款iPad反響平平，很多人不禁質疑，蘋果是否還是那個犀利的創新企業。

我之前曾經說過，蘋果正在執行一種“收割戰略”，以在趨平甚至下滑的市場上榨取盡可能多的利潤，這也是一個非常聰明的戰略。由于平板電腦市場整體不景氣，iPad也無法獨善其身。蘋果試圖在還有些賺頭的情況下盡可能地收割利潤。這種戰略是說得過去的，市場的反應也證明了這一點——蘋果股價昨天再創歷史新高。

Mac、iPad和iPhone作為蘋果的三大支柱產品，其銷售額占蘋果總收益的比重超過了85%，然而這三種產品也都面臨著越來越大的壓力。未來對蘋果只會越來越難，而不是越來越簡單。消費者已經不愿升級到實際改動并不大的所謂“新款”，三星、中興和華為等競爭對手與蘋果的差距也變得越來越小，有時甚至能以更低的價格推出更高級的功能。另外，平臺之戰的天平已經開始朝著Android傾斜。雖然蘋果在這些產品上還有不小的“收割”空間，但蘋果的長期展望卻著實不容樂觀。

為了保住顛覆者的位置，蘋果必須由防御性戰略轉向進攻性戰略。好在蘋果的轉型資本還是很雄厚的，一有優質的品牌聲譽，二有忠誠的用戶群，三有多達2000億美元左右的現金可用。然而資本雄厚的廠商并非只有蘋果一家，就在其他競爭對手大搞收購的同時，蘋果卻基本上對收購持觀望態度。它迄今為止最大手筆的一次收購，就是在2014年以30億美元收購了Beats公司。與其他很多競爭廠商相比，這樣的手筆只是小巫見大巫。

蘋果最近開拓新業務領域的嘗試也并非很成功。首先，Apple Watch稱不上是一款革命性的產品。其次，蘋果的汽車戰略目前似乎陷入停滯。另外，蘋果音樂也仍未追上與Spotify的差距。正如新書《數字漩渦》（Digital Vortex）中所指出的那樣，蘋果需要更加擅于占領新的競爭領域，不管它是不是那個領域的顛覆者。

重新構建某種商品或服務是需要耗費大量時間的。蘋果近來在核心產品之外的領域已經失去了發展勢頭，但它卻握有大量的現金，而現在也到了蘋果應該花錢的時候了。換句話說，蘋果現在應該做的是收購，而不是自造。

那么，蘋果下一次收購的目標是誰呢？首先，不管蘋果收購誰，它必須要符合蘋果的公司形象。它應該具有出色的設計水平和較好的創新性、簡潔性、科技性，并且具有高端或奢華的口碑。這些標準就可以排除一些人們熱議已久的目標了，比如迪士尼（業務太過多元化）和索尼（業務太復雜）。目前看來，蘋果有可能或比較可能收購的目標有：

潘朵拉（Pandora，市值30億美元）

蘋果如果收購Spotify，或許無法通過反壟斷機構的審查。因此蘋果如果想在流媒體音樂領域擴大地盤，收購潘朵拉或許是個不錯的選擇，而且這筆交易的規模也相對較小，大約只在30億到50億美元之間。然而單憑這樣一次收購，對蘋果的整體業務其實推動不大，蘋果的胃口應該還要再大些。

特斯拉（440億美元市值）

蘋果和特斯拉多年以來一直相愛相殺，一邊相互貶低，一邊相互挖對方的工程師。特斯拉作為一個強勢的高端創新品牌，不失為蘋果進入汽車業務的一個捷徑。然而特斯拉也是一家規模相對較小且利潤較低的公司，而且對各種震蕩十分敏感。另外，說到特斯拉就不能不提它的CEO伊隆·馬斯克，他與蘋果CEO蒂姆·庫克都是十分自負之人，說不好會碰撞出什么火花。

PayPal（520億美元市值）

蘋果的移動支付服務Apple Pay在2014年10月推出時曾被寄予厚望，但它的普及速度并沒有達到很多人的預期。蘋果很是吃了一番苦頭才明白金融服務業的水有多深，被保護得多好，以及有多難以攻克。假若能夠獲得反壟斷監管部門的審批，那么收購PayPal將使消費者和商家更容易接受蘋果的支付服務。不過金融服務畢竟不是蘋果的核心業務，甚至有可能讓它從核心業務上分心。

動視暴雪（370億美元市值）

蘋果很有可能進軍游戲領域，因為這個領域如今已經比電影和音樂產業加起來還要龐大。雖然動視暴雪沒有自己的游戲機業務，但它在PC、網游和手游領域都十分強勁（為了進軍手游界，它還收購了熱門游戲《糖果粉碎傳奇》的制作商）。如果蘋果想要進入一個臨近產業，收購動視暴雪將是一個很不錯的選擇。

Netflix（610億美元市值）

蘋果已經圍繞視頻做了很多年的文章了，但它一直沒能擠進視頻內容制作或傳播的第一梯隊。蘋果通過iPod、iPhone和iPad收割了很大的價值，實現了巨大的成功，而內容制作者等業內其他各方實際上處于吃虧的地位。不過現在已有很多證據表明，目前天平正在朝遠離設備制造商的一方傾斜。Netflix和亞馬遜都看到了這種趨勢，也都在努力占據這股潮流的最前沿。

Netflix在這方面已經取得了巨大的成功——首先是在傳播上，其次是在內容制作上。相比之下，蘋果在這一領域的反應則很慢，它需要付出大量努力才能彌補這一差距。尤其是現在各大傳統內容制作商紛紛認識到了他們所創作的內容的價值，而亞馬遜等新進者也發出了不少自己的聲音。Netflix雖然是個很貴的收購目標，但它能給蘋果帶來巨大的平臺價值。

由于蘋果的口碑已陷入岌岌可危的境地，蘋果必須擴展自己的當前戰略，開辟新的市場。從當前的硬件市場上收割盡可能多的利潤當然是無可厚非的，但蘋果也需要在游戲、內容制作與傳播等領域上創造價值。蘋果歷來喜歡用自己構建的產品打入新市場，然而它最近幾次的類似嘗試都以失敗而告終，時間也不再站在它這一邊了。因此，蘋果應該利用它的巨額資本進行戰略采購，并占領鄰近市場。而收購動視暴雪或者Netflix都是非常有吸引力的選項。（財富中文網）

作者：Michael Wade

譯者：樸成奎

本文作者Michael Wade是全球數字業務轉型中心（Global Center for Digital Business Transformation）主任、瑞士國際管理發展學院（IMD）創新與戰略學教授，也是《數字漩渦：當今的市場領袖如何打敗顛覆性的競爭對手》一書的作者之一。他并不是蘋果或本文提到的任何一家公司的投資人。

As Apple’s stock climbed to its fifth record in March on Tuesday, and it’s 11th record this year, it’s a good time to take a serious look at what the tech giant should take on next. Apple is renowned for being a great disruptor, relying on a “build rather than buy” approach. However, when the company released an underwhelming new iPad last week, many began to question its innovator status.

I previously argued that Apple is pursuing a harvest strategy, a smart strategic move in which it extracts as much profit as possible from a static or declining market. iPad sales are down (along with all tablets), and Apple is trying to capture returns while it is still possible to do so. This makes sense, and the markets seem to agree, as Apple stock hit another record level yesterday.

However, the Mac, iPad and iPhone – responsible for more than 85% of Apple’s revenue – are all under increasing pressure today, and the future looks harder, not easier. Consumers are resisting the urge to upgrade for marginal improvements. Competitors, like Samsung, ZTE and Huawei are closing the quality gap and are, in many cases, providing superior features at a lower cost. Plus, IOS is losing the global platform war with Android. While there is still plenty of harvesting to be done from these lines of business, the long-term prognosis does not look positive.

To reassert its place as a digital disruptor, Apple will need to move from a defensive strategy to an offensive one. Thankfully, Apple has the brand name, the loyal following, and, with around $200 billion in cash on the balance sheet, the money to do so. Yet, while other cash-rich competitors have splashed out on high-profile acquisitions, Apple has largely watched from the sidelines. Its largest acquisition to date has been Beats for $3 billion in 2014 – a mere pittance compared to many of its peers.

Apple’s recent attempts to occupy new battlegrounds have not been very successful. The Apple Watch has failed to ‘revolutionize the wrist;’ Apple’s car strategy seems to have stalled and Apple Music has not been closing the gap to Spotify. Apple needs to become better at occupying new competitive spaces, as explained in the Digital Vortex, whether or not it is the disruptor.

Building from scratch takes time, and Apple has lost momentum recently in areas outside its core. The company has cash, and now is the time to spend it. It’s time to buy rather than build.

So what should Apple’s next acquisition be? First, any acquisition should fit the company’s image. It should have great design, be innovative, simplistic, technology-focused, and have a high-end or luxury reputation. These criteria rule out some commonly considered targets such as Disney (too diversified) and Sony (too complex). A list of possible and not-so-possible contenders includes:

Pandora ($3 billion market cap)

An acquisition of Spotify would probably not clear anti-trust scrutiny, so if Apple wants to gain an additional foothold in the music streaming arena, it could buy Pandora for a relatively small $3 billion to $5 billion. However, this will not move the needle much, and Apple should be thinking bigger.

Tesla ($44 billion market cap)

Apple and Tesla have been trading barbs and engineers for years. Buying Tesla could be a fast way for Apple to enter the car business, with a strong, high-end, innovative brand. However, Tesla is relatively small, unprofitable and vulnerable to shocks. It is also very much linked to its CEO, Elon Musk, which could mean a clash of egos with Apple CEO Tim Cook.

PayPal ($52 billion market cap)

Apple Pay, launched with great fanfare in October 2014, has not taken off as quickly as many expected. Apple has learned the hard way that the financial services industry is complex, well protected and generally hard to crack. The acquisition of PayPal (assuming it is approved by anti-trust regulators) would give Apple more heft to convince both consumers to adopt and merchants to accept its payment service. However, financial services are a long way from Apple’s core, and could become a distraction.

Activision Blizzard ($37 billion market cap)

Apple could move into the gaming arena, which has now become bigger than both the movie and music industries combined. While Activision Blizzard does not have a game console business, it is strong in PC, online and mobile gaming (with the acquisition of the parent company of Candy Crush). If Apple wants to enter an adjacent industry, this is an interesting option.

Netflix ($61 billion market cap)

Apple has been dancing around video for years, but has never managed to crack the upper echelons of content creation or distribution. It has achieved great success by capturing value from devices such as the iPod, iPhone and iPad at the expense of content generators and other ecosystem players. However, there is plenty of evidence to suggest this balance is swinging away from device manufacturers. Both Netflix and Amazon understood this trend, and have been making strides to get ahead of it.

Netflix has been tremendously successful — first in the distribution, and now in the generation of content. Apple, by contrast, has been slow to react. It will have a hard time bridging this gap, especially with the traditional content generators waking up to the value they create, and other new entrants, like Amazon, making a lot of noise. Netflix is an expensive option, but would bring Apple massive platform value.

With its reputation at stake, Apple must expand on its current strategy and open new markets to play in. Harvesting as much profit as possible from its current hardware business makes sense, but it needs to transfer this value to new areas, such as gaming, and content generation and distribution. Traditionally, Apple builds its own products to enter new markets. However, its last few attempts to do so have flopped and time is not on its side. Therefore, Apple should use its massive wealth to make strategic acquisitions and occupy adjacent markets – with Activision Blizzard or Netflix making very attractive targets.

Michael Wade is Director of the Global Center for Digital Business Transformation, Professor of Innovation and Strategy at IMD and co-author of Digital Vortex: How Today's Market Leaders Can Beat Disruptive Competitors at Their Own Game. Wade is not an investor in Apple or other companies noted in this article.