有限合伙人是指投資風(fēng)投基金的機(jī)構(gòu)和個(gè)人。最近，我采訪(fǎng)了73位有限合伙人，進(jìn)一步了解他們對(duì)2016年風(fēng)投市場(chǎng)的看法。我還與其他很多有限合伙人聊了聊，在最近召開(kāi)的Upfront Summit大會(huì)上也找機(jī)會(huì)交流。下面是溝通后了解到的核心內(nèi)容：

進(jìn)入風(fēng)投市場(chǎng)的資金有所增加

首先，眾所周知進(jìn)入風(fēng)投市場(chǎng)的資本已經(jīng)穩(wěn)步回升至大衰退之前的水平，2015年美國(guó)科技行業(yè)風(fēng)投資本的規(guī)模接近300億美元。近來(lái)不少風(fēng)投資本開(kāi)始撤回在創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的投資，引發(fā)了不少討論，但我們采訪(fǎng)的有限合伙人都表示向風(fēng)投注資的節(jié)奏不會(huì)放緩，至少短期內(nèi)不會(huì)。

Surveying the investors behind the investors.

Limited partners are institutions and individuals who invest in venture capital funds, and I recently surveyed 73 of them to better understand their thoughts on the VC market in 2016. I also had conversations with many more ― including at our recent Upfront Summit ― and what follows is the essence of what I learned:

Dollars into Venture Have Gone Up

As a starting point we know that the dollars into venture have steadily gone back up to pre-Great Recession levels with just under $30 billion committed to U.S. technology venture capital in 2015. While there is much discussion about VCs starting to pull back on their investments into startups, the LPs we surveyed don’t expect to slow the pace of investment into VC funds themselves ― at least not for the foreseeable future.

但是有限合伙人一直處于投資大于回報(bào)的狀態(tài)

有限合伙人一直非常看好風(fēng)投資本，因?yàn)轱L(fēng)投手中持有優(yōu)步和Airbnb等公司的優(yōu)質(zhì)股權(quán)，相信未來(lái)能收獲大量現(xiàn)金收益。但是在過(guò)去10年中，他們?cè)陲L(fēng)投里的投資要遠(yuǎn)多于收到的回報(bào)。事實(shí)上，如果計(jì)算過(guò)去10年中的資本流就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，凈現(xiàn)金支出接近500億美元。

But LPs Have Been Putting Out More Money Than They Are Getting Back

LPs have been feeling great about venture capital due to holding valuable paper positions in companies like Uber and Airbnb that they feel confident will drive large cash distributions in the future. But they have been sending VCs way more investment checks in the last 10 years than they’ve gotten back as distributions. In fact, if you add up capital flows of the past 10 years, there has been just shy of $50 billion in net cash outlays.

問(wèn)題在于，有限合伙人這500億美元的真金白銀套在風(fēng)投里，沒(méi)法投向其他資產(chǎn)。這里出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)經(jīng)常被忽視的問(wèn)題：如果有限合伙人收不回資金，投出的資金又越來(lái)越多，最終要么減少對(duì)風(fēng)投的投資，要么被迫增加風(fēng)投在資產(chǎn)組合中的比例（代價(jià)是減少投資其他資產(chǎn)）。

有限合伙人仍堅(jiān)信風(fēng)投是一種多元化的回報(bào)來(lái)源

對(duì)于初創(chuàng)企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，好消息是有限合伙人仍非常看好能從風(fēng)投中拿到的長(zhǎng)期收益，而且仍在繼續(xù)投資。在我們采訪(fǎng)的73支有限合伙人基金中，只有7%的基金認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前的市況下在風(fēng)投領(lǐng)域投資過(guò)多；22%的基金反而有意追加投資。

And that’s real cash that LPs can’t put to work in other asset classes. So one problem often not talked about is that if LPs don’t get money back and accumulate more cash outflows, eventually they will either have to pare back investments into venture or they’ll have to increase the percentage of dollars they allocate to venture (at the expense of other asset classes).

LPs Still Believe Strongly in VC as a Diverse Source of Returns

The good news for startups is that the LPs are still very big believers in the long-term gains they will get from venture and are still allocating capital to the industry. In our poll of 73 LP funds, only 7% felt they were overweight in venture given the current market climate against 22% of the firms who are actually looking to add exposure.

盡管有人稱(chēng)大多數(shù)有限合伙人僅愿意投資硅谷的老牌基金，但有證據(jù)表明，目前很多人已意識(shí)到，一些新面孔也能利用差異化開(kāi)辟出新的陣地。事實(shí)上，40%的有限合伙人稱(chēng)，他們有意投資新基金。

And while there is a narrative that most LPs only want to invest in the long-standing Silicon Valley brands, there is evidence that many now understand that it is possible for new entrants to stake out new grounds of differentiation. In fact, 40% of LPs tell us that they’re looking to add new names to their rosters.

有限合伙人意識(shí)到了估值過(guò)高的現(xiàn)象，而且不喜歡

然而，并非所有的事情都那么美好。有限合伙人都十分關(guān)注媒體最近報(bào)道的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)估值過(guò)高和過(guò)度融資現(xiàn)象，而且他們都有親身經(jīng)歷。調(diào)研中約75%有限合伙人表示，對(duì)投資節(jié)奏、投資狂熱和估值十分關(guān)注，但到目前為止，只有6%的受訪(fǎng)對(duì)象表示“非常擔(dān)憂(yōu)”。

LPs See The Over-Valuations & Don’t Like It

But all isn’t completely rosy. LPs have followed much of press recently about startup over-valuation and over-funding, and they experience these phenomena first hand. Some 75% of LPs polled said they are concerned about investment pace, burn and valuations ― but, for now, only 6% are “deeply concerned.”

估計(jì)在接下來(lái)的18個(gè)月中，有限合伙人可能會(huì)看到另一個(gè)2008-09年之后很少出現(xiàn)的情況——估值降低。奇怪的是，越成功的基金可能越快碰到這種情況，因?yàn)槌钟幸恍┬律鲜泄竟煞莸幕穑òㄎ覀兊幕穑┯锌赡芎芸煲蚬蓛r(jià)調(diào)整減計(jì)資產(chǎn)。

有限合伙人面臨的另一個(gè)問(wèn)題在于，“重回市場(chǎng)”的風(fēng)投募資速度比過(guò)去快了不少。正常來(lái)說(shuō)，業(yè)績(jī)很好的風(fēng)投基金每三年會(huì)籌集一支新基金。但在最近幾年，一些風(fēng)投基本上18個(gè)月內(nèi)便會(huì)募集新基金。我覺(jué)得這一好日子馬上就要結(jié)束了。61%的受訪(fǎng)有限合伙人認(rèn)為，風(fēng)投回歸市場(chǎng)的速度太快。

I suspect LPs in the next 18 months will see another phenomenon that they likely haven’t seen much since 2008-09: Markdowns. This strangely may come even more quickly in the more successful funds because any fund (ours included) that still holds some public stock from a recent IPO will likely see immediate write-downs due to public stocks being repriced.

Also problematic for LPs is that VC firms have been “back in the market” raising funds more quickly than they have in the past. A normal VC fund raises a new fund every three years if it is a strong performer but, in recent years, there have been some VC firms that have literally raised new funds inside of 18 months. I suspect those days will end soon. 61% of LPs polled said they felt VCs were coming back to market too quickly.