進入熊市的跡象：股價較其峰值水平下跌20%。

在過去，沃倫?巴菲特曾預測，相對于其他公司，其公司股票的表現在熊市會比牛市更好。然而這一次，情況并不是這樣。

美國主要股指最近再次下跌，盡管這一跌幅還遠未達到進入熊市的水平，但對于巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋來說，熊就要來了。具有傳奇色彩的伯克希爾股票——其50年以來的表現一直好于標普500（根據其最新的年報）——目前的價格較其2014年12月的峰值水平下跌了近18.5%。最近，該公司股價一度跌至每股187001美元，創一年多以來的新低。熊市一般是指股價較其峰值下跌20%。

這位股神的公司的股票最近一直舉步維艱，而進入熊市將成為它另一個不幸的里程碑。2015年，該公司股價的跌幅超過了12%，是2008年以來表現最差的一年。在2008年，該公司股價在整個股市崩盤期間下跌了近32%。

盡管伯克希爾哈撒韋在金融危機期間的表現略好于標普500（2008年暴跌了37%），但是這一次，它卻跑輸了大盤：標普500自伯克希爾股價2014年12月達到峰值以來僅下跌了9%，其表現超出伯克希爾哈撒韋近10個百分點。

The sign of a bear is a 20% decline from the stock’s peak.

In the past, Warren Buffett has predicted that his performance is likely to be better, relative to everyone else, in bear markets than in bull ones. That hasn’t played out this time around.

While the major U.S stock indexes, which sunk again on Monday, still have to fall significantly farther before they enter bear market territory, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is getting dangerously close. The stock of Berkshire BRK.A -2.30% —legendary for its consistent outperformance of the S&P 500, returning 1,826,163% over 50 years, through its latest annual report—is now trading nearly 18.5% below its high in December 2014. On Monday, the share price fell to $187,001, its lowest point in more than a year. A bear market is usually defined as being down 20% from its peak.

Entering a bear market would be another unfortunate milestone for the Oracle of Omaha’s stock which has struggled recently. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway shares fell more than 12%,their worst annual performance since 2008, when the stock declined nearly 32% amid the overall market crash.

But while Berkshire Hathaway fared somewhat better during the financial crisis than the S&P 500 (which plummeted 37% in 2008), this time, the stock is underperforming the market: The S&P 500 has fallen just 9% since Berkshire’s peak, nearly 10 percentage points better than Buffett’s performance.

然而，值得注意的是，與危機期間不同，公司當前的投資表現并非完全是這位股神的責任，因為巴菲特目前有兩位副手——托德?康布斯和泰德?維施樂，他們負責幫助巴菲特打理伯克希爾的投資。

此外，伯克希爾的收入多來自于旗下各大子公司，例如圣達菲北伯林頓鐵路公司，而不是其投資組合。與鐵路公司一樣，其中很多公司的業績都存在周期性。因此，伯克希爾股價的下跌可能源于投資者對美國經濟的擔憂。

與此同時，美國其他一些股票的跌幅已經超過了熊市門檻。例如蘋果，自8月便正式進入了熊市，目前的股價仍比去年2月的峰值水平低25%。沃爾瑪的股票在11月進入了熊市模式，其當前的股價較一年前的峰值下跌了30%。2015年股市的領跑者Netflix在一周多前開始走熊：其股價較去年12月初的峰值水平下跌了27%。

而就版塊而言，美國唯一真正進入熊市的板塊只有小市值股，也就是市值小于50億美元的那些公司。小市值企業Russell 2000指數較去年6月的峰值水平下探了23%。還有某些特定的行業股，例如石油和生物科技股，已經深陷熊市數月，主要歸咎于能源價格的低迷以及監管因素。

標普Capital IQ公司美國股票策略師山姆?斯托沃在紀要中指出，納斯達克綜合指數較7月的峰值下跌了13%，標普500較5月的歷史新高下探了近12%，而且仍“處于下行階段”。

斯托沃在最新的紀要中寫道，在歷史上，標普500下跌20%進入熊市用了9個月的時間。目前我們已經到了第8個月的關頭，因此按照這一邏輯，標普2月會進入熊市，但那時并非是熊市的終點。斯托沃指出：熊市通常還要經歷5個月的時間才會觸底，到那時，標普500較其峰值水平的跌幅將超過30%。

一旦觸底，股價的恢復將是一個漫長的過程。斯托沃稱，熊市的平均恢復期約為兩年。然而，如果股市繼續在當前的修正范圍內波動（即跌幅較其峰值水平大于10%，小于20%），那么前景還能稍微樂觀一點：股市可能僅需4個月左右的時間便能從谷底恢復如初。（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

校對：詹妮

It’s important to note, however, that unlike in the recession years, the Oracle does not shoulder the full responsibility for his investment performance anymore, as Buffett now has two deputies, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, helping him manage Berkshire’s investments. What’s more, Berkshire derives more of its income these days from the various companies it owns, like railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe, than its investment portfolio. And like the railroad, many of those companies tend to be cyclical. So the drop in Berkshire’s stock could be driven by investors’ fears about the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, certain other U.S. stocks have already fallen beyond the threshold of a bear market. Apple AAPL -1.95% , for example, officially entered a bear market in August, and is still down 25% from its peak last February. Walmart WMT 1.21% stock fell into a bear market in November, currently off 30% from its high about a year ago. And Netflix NFLX -1.59% , the best-performing stock of 2015, hit a bear market a little more than a week ago: The stock has fallen 27% since its peak in early December.

Categorically speaking, though, the only U.S. stocks that are actually in a bear market are small-cap stocks, or companies with a market value of less than $5 billion: The Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies has fallen 23% since its high in June. Certain other sectors, such as oil and biotech stocks, have been in a bear market for months, punished by low energy prices and regulatory concerns, respectively.

The Nasdaq Composite index has fallen 13% from its peak in July, and the S&P 500 is down nearly 12% from its May all-time high, though it “remains in a bearish position,” according to a note by Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ.

Historically, it has taken nine months for the S&P 500 to decline 20% from its peak to reach a bear market, Stovall wrote in a note on Monday. We’re at the eight-month mark now, so by that logic, we could be in a bear market by February. But bears don’t stop there, Stovall points out: the average bear takes another five months to hit bottom, at which point the S&P 500 has fallen more than 30% from its high.

At that point, it will be a long road back to the top: The average bear market took about two years to recover, according to Stovall. But if the market continues to hover in its current correction range (marked by a fall of greater than 10% but less than 20% from its peak), the outlook is a bit sunnier: It should only take four months or so for the market to bounce back from its low.