中國央行降息降準,分析師怎么看?
????中國股票市場在兩天內暴跌超過15%。在此期間,央行一直袖手旁觀。但本周二,中國央行宣布下調官方貸款利率和銀行存款準備金要求,此舉看來似乎是在努力阻止股市崩盤。 ????中國人民銀行宣布,將一年期貸款基準利率下調0.25個百分點至4.6%,一年期存款基準利率下調0.25個百分點至1.75%。另外一項重要舉措是,將大型銀行的存款準備金率降低0.5個百分點,這一措施有望釋放出約1000億美元的流動性——這筆資金有可能被注入實體經(jīng)濟,而不是囤積在央行。 ????本周一,對中國經(jīng)濟增長勢頭的擔憂導致股票和大宗商品價格暴跌,全球股市一片混亂。中國央行的“雙降”措施,無異于給全球金融市場降了一場及時雨,各國股市均出現(xiàn)健康反彈。 ????然而部分觀察家對這一舉措感到困惑,因為它似乎規(guī)模太小,行動太慢,不足以恢復人們對中國決策者們的信心,即相信他們能夠在泡沫破裂的過程中保持市場有序發(fā)展。整個七月及八月初,中國政府一直在對股市進行積極干預,希望將股市下跌幅度控制在一定范圍之內,但決策者隨后似乎逐漸放棄了直接干預,眼看著上證綜指再次下跌25%卻無動于衷。周二,上證綜指下跌7.3%,相比6月份的最高值下跌了43%。 ????中國人民銀行在官網(wǎng)上發(fā)布了一份詳細的政策聲明,但令人意外的是,聲明中并未提及過去兩天的股市崩盤。本月初,中國人民銀行在21年來首次使人民幣對美元貶值,但之后并未推出更多刺激措施,導致市場失望情緒蔓延,過去兩天,滬深兩地市場的跌幅超過了15%。 ????中國人民銀行稱:“本輪定向降準的目的是進一步增強金融機構支持‘三農(nóng)’和小微企業(yè)的能力,強化正向激勵,加大對重點領域和薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的支持力度,為大眾創(chuàng)業(yè)與創(chuàng)新提供金融支持。” ????不可否認,高實際利率一直在懲罰中國的企業(yè)部門,進一步加劇了工業(yè)品出廠價格連續(xù)3年下跌造成的問題。 ????關于未來的形勢,荷蘭銀行駐倫敦的分析師尼克?庫尼斯認為,中國人民銀行在其聲明中表示將“更加靈活地”運用政策工具,放棄了其通常引用的“審慎的”決策,因此,未來中國“有可能”采取更加寬松的政策。 ????但有分析人士認為,周二的“雙降”措施,對于許多公司的生死存亡不太可能產(chǎn)生重大影響。至于這些措施能否阻止滬深市場的暴跌,完全是另外一回事。(財富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:劉進龍/汪皓 ????審校:任文科 |
????After sitting on its hands for two days in which the local stock market fell over 15%, China’s central bank Tuesday cut its official lending rates and its reserve requirements on local banks in what appeared to be an effort to stop the rot. ????The People’s Bank of China said it will cut its one-year lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.6% and its benchmark one-year savings rate by 0.25 point to 1.75%. Just as importantly, it will cut the reserve requirement ratio on most large banks by 0.5 percentage point, freeing up around $100 billion in liquidity that may now be lent to the economy instead of being hoarded at the central bank. ????The move provided an immediate sugar rush to global markets that had, in any case, rebounded healthily after Monday’s turmoil, when fears about the strength of the Chinese economy sent prices for stocks and commodities tumbling. ????However, the action left some observers bemused, appearing too little, too late, to restore confidence in policy-makers’ ability to keep the market orderly as the bubble deflates. The authorities had intervened aggressively through all of July and early August to keep stock losses within bounds, but had appeared to give up direct intervention since then, allowing the Shanghai composite index to fall another 25%. After a 7.3% drop on Tuesday, the SHCOMP is down 43% from its peak in June. ????In an exhaustive policy statement on its website, the PBoC surprisingly made no reference to the carnage on the mainland stock market in the last two days. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have lost over 15% in that time, not least on disappointment that the PBoC hadn’t delivered any more stimulus since allowing the yuan to depreciate against the dollar for the first time in 21 years earlier this month. ????“This round of targeted RRR cuts aims at strengthening the capacity of financial institutions to support the developments of agricultural sector, rural areas and farmers and micro and small enterprises, reinforcing the positive incentive, supporting the key areas and weak sectors in the national economy and providing financial support to popular entrepreneurship and innovation,” the PBoC said. ????There’s no denying that high real interest rates have been punishing China’s corporate sector, compounding the problems caused by three years of deflation in factory gate prices. ????Reading the tea-leaves, Nick Kounis, an analyst with ABN Amro in London, said there is more easing “on the cards” after the PBoC said in its statement that it will use its policy tools “flexibly” and dropped its usual reference to “prudent” policy making. ????But Tuesday’s action is unlikely to make the difference between life and death for many companies on its own, analysts said. And whether it will stop the exodus from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is another matter entirely. |