????通常，一國公布的經濟數據好于預期時，股市都會迎來上漲，但中國卻偏偏例外。

????雖然中國第二季度國內生產總值比去年同期增長7%，好于分析師預測的6.8%，但中國股市在周三（7月15日）仍然遭受重挫。

????上證綜指下跌3.1%，中證500指數則下挫5.8%，其中包括此前吸納了散戶杠桿投資者大量熱錢的小盤股。目前，中國股市已從6月份達到市場頂點之后下探了36%（但仍然比年初上漲了40%）。

????還要跌多久市場才能企穩？

????究其原因，股市漲跌不僅受基本面的影響，也受人們對政府及央行是否會出臺提振市場的新政策的預期驅動。隨著實體經濟數據向好，未來出臺更多刺激措施的可能性降低了，換言之，不太可能有更多的錢砸向市場來防止泡沫破裂了。

????早些時候，國家統計局表示，面臨“復雜的國內外經濟環境以及不斷增加的下行壓力”，該季度經濟呈現“適度但穩定增長”的態勢。

????此前，對于中國發布信息的可靠程度，尤其是當增長速度沒能達到政府目標時所公布的數據可信度一直飽受質疑。此次，分析師依然對數據表示了懷疑態度。

????仔細來看，二季度大部分增長項都有所放緩：投資增速從13.5%降低到10.3%，零售增速從一季度的10.5%下降到10.2%。

????倫敦施羅德資產管理公司新興市場經濟學家克雷格?博瑟姆說，在這樣的情況下，GDP卻沒有下滑，這有點“奇怪”，“我們公司內部模型計算的結果是，經濟增速應從6.9%下降到6.3%。”

????博瑟姆沒有指責政府“捏造”數據，但他指出支持這種出人意料的上漲背后的因素是非可持續性的。他表示，一季度由于助推股市泡沫的借貸活動激增，金融領域對GDP的貢獻超出0.5%。而第二季度情況卻正好相反，并且可能持續到下一季度。此外，凈出口很可能占到二季度GDP中“相當大的一部分”，這并非因為出口總量大幅增加，而是因為主要進口貨物出現價格暴跌，如石油、鐵礦石等。而國家統計局并沒有說明GDP中各領域的具體貢獻比例。

????“支撐二季度經濟數據的基礎看起來并不牢靠，沒有支撐自身可持續發展的牢固基石，”博瑟姆說，“建立在沙粒之上的圣殿一旦風云突變必將轟然倒塌——中國的命運也許不至如此，但畢竟，地基不穩，房屋不牢。”

????也許，股民的直接反應并沒有錯。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Donna

????校對：詹妮

????Mainland Chinese stocks fell heavily Wednesday, even though the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product forecasts beat expectations, showing that the economy grew 7% from a year earlier. Analysts had forecast only 6.8%.

????But the Shanghai Composite index fell 3.1% and the China Securities 500 index, which comprises the small-cap stocks which have attracted the bulk of the hot money flowing in from leveraged retail investors, fell another 5.8%. It’s down 36% from its peak in June (but still up over 40% since the start of the year).

????How far do Chinese stocks have to fall before they stabilize?

????That’s because the markets are trading not in reaction to fundamentals, but in anticipation of fresh measures by the government and central bank to prop the market up. With the real economy outdoing expectations, the chances of more stimulus measures–in other words, more money thrown at the market to stop the bubble deflating–have fallen.

????Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics had said the economy showed “moderate but steady growth” in the quarter, in the face of “complicated external and domestic economic conditions and increasingly downward pressure.”

????Analysts reacted skeptically to the figures, which revived long-standing concerns about the reliability of China, especially when growth falls shorts of the government’s targets.

????Most of the individual components of growth appeared to be slowing down in the second quarter: investment growth slowed from 13.5% to 10.3%, and retail sales growth slowed to 10.2% from 10.5% in the first quarter.

????Craig Botham, emerging markets economist for asset management firm Schroders in London, said it was “odd” that GDP didn’t slow too–“our in-house model pointed to a consistent growth rate of around 6.3%, down from 6.9%.”

????Botham stopped short of accusing Beijing of “fudging” the numbers. But he pointed out that the factors that appear to have been behind the upside surprise are unlikely to be sustainable. The financial sector, he noted, had added 0.5% to GDP growth in the first quarter due to the boom in lending that supported the equity bubble. That went into reverse in the second quarter and is likely to continue in the next three months, he said. Additionally, he said, net exports probably contributed “a sizeable chunk” of GDP in the second quarter–not because export volumes are booming, but because the price of key imports such as oil and iron ore were collapsing. The NBS didn’t give a detailed breakdown of contributions to the GDP number.

????“The performance in Q2 looks to have been built upon shaky foundations, rather than the solid rock of self-sustaining growth,” Botham said. “The biblical house built upon sand ultimately fell with a great crash as the weather turned against it – the same fate may not await China, but all sandcastles ultimately crumble.”

????Perhaps Mr. & Mrs. Wu’s reaction in the stock market was right after all.