????過去幾周中國股市直線下墜，開始回吐此前12個月的巨大漲幅。中國證監會已經出手干預，試圖遏制市場滑坡。許多中國公司的管理層都選擇了停牌，這加劇了目前籠罩市場的恐慌心態。同時，美國市場交易的中國科技公司ADR（美國存托憑證）也出現了相當大的跌幅。

????15年來，我所在的紀源資本風投公司一直積極在中國投資，在華業務規模已經很大。我們支持的中國公司包括一些實力最強的新經濟企業，如阿里巴巴、去哪兒網和歡聚時代。我們的中國合作伙伴也參與了百度和小米等其他中國科技公司的最早期投資。我們在中國投入了大量資金，親眼目睹了這些公司的發展。我們也經受住了互聯網泡沫、非典、全球金融危機等一系列困難的考驗。因此，最近許多人都在問我中國出了什么事，中國經濟前景如何，以及美國科技和風投市場可能受到哪些影響。我總結了一些關鍵因素，并提出了我對這些問題的看法，具體如下。

????中國股市暴跌有因

????中國有多個股票交易市場，上交所和深交所是中國兩大股票市場，許多增長緩慢、從事線下經營的國有企業都在此上市，但它們只有少數股份可以流通。這些國企往往在中國處于壟斷位置。另外還有三個類似納斯達克的市場，分別是深圳創業板（即三板市場）、北京新三板和最新的上交所戰略新興產業板。這三個市場的上市條件不那么嚴格，囊括了其他地方性公司，其中許多都以線下經濟為重點，或者是增長緩慢的小眾企業。去年夏天之前，這三個市場上的股票在四年時間里一直處于穩步下滑狀態。

????同時，中國經濟持續增長，許多上市公司都披露了良好業績。因此，在這個階段中國股票的估值倍數下降，吸引力開始上升。最終牛市出現了，而且最初是建立在基本面上的。隨后，政府放寬了政策，包括提高了散戶借助抵押融資的交易能力，此舉使得投資者可以獲得更多資金，再加上他們急于買進那些正在升值的股票，股市開始進一步上揚。這樣的高歌猛進一直延續到大約一個月前，中國股市隨后開始直線下滑。此前的漲幅很大。比如說，過去3-4周出現滑坡前，A股在12個月時間里的平均升幅約為140%。

????政府有何舉措？為什么要這樣做？

????中國政府的首要任務是建立繁榮而且開放的資本市場，其中的重要步驟之一就是讓一些最優質的中國企業在國內上市。中國的牛市延續到了一個月之前，套利空間變得越來越大。在美國以ADR方式上市交易的中國公司感覺如果回到A股市場，會拿到更高估值。因此，一些赴美上市的中國公司宣布退市，中國國內基金、這些公司的管理層以及中國金融機構聯手對這些ADR，也就是在美上市的中國企業提出了收購要約。他們的最終目標是將這些公司重組為中國境內企業，然后讓他們登陸中國股票市場。鑒于中國政府以壯大國內股市為首要任務，我認為這樣的行為獲得了暗中支持，更多中國企業也要退市的傳聞也推動許多中國公司ADR走強。

????眼下，隨著中國股市開始暴跌，中國政府更關心穩定市場這種眼前的問題，這和美股動蕩不安時美國政府救市的行為類似。到目前為止，中國政府的措施看來力度很大（如在很長一段時間里禁止股東減持，暫停新股發行等），但一直未能扭轉A股的頹勢。許多公司都停了牌，這讓情況變得更糟，因為它讓那些被催繳保證金，急需融資的投資者更加恐慌。

????China’s stock markets have been in free-fall for the past several weeks, reversing tremendous gains over the prior twelve months. The Chinese version of the SEC (CSRC) has intervened, attempting to staunch the slide. The management teams of many local Chinese companies have unilaterally halted trading in their own stocks, adding to the panic that currently prevails. Additionally, the ADRs (American Depository Receipts) of the shares in Chinese tech companies that trade in the U.S. have also fallen pretty sharply.

????At my venture capital firm, GGV Capital, we’ve been actively investing in China with a strong local presence for the past 15 years. We’ve backed some of the strongest new-economy Chinese companies that have emerged including Alibaba BABA 1.21% , Qunar QUNR 0.36% and YY YY 0.08% , and our China-based partners have been involved at the earliest stages of other Chinese tech companies such as Baidu BIDU 0.10% and Xiaomi. We’re heavily invested in China and are on the ground to see developments first-hand. We’ve lived through the Internet bubble, SARS and the global financial crisis, to name a few. As a result, I’ve gotten lots of questions recently about what’s going on in China, the prospects for the Chinese economy, and what the impacts might be on the US tech and VC markets. I’ve summarized some of the key elements of the story and my perspective on these questions below.

????The Chinese stock market sell off in context

????China has several local exchanges. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges (which include “A-Share, Renminbi denominated stocks) are the most developed and include many low-growth, offline-economy, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with minority stakes that trade publicly. SOEs are often local monopolies. There are also three Nasdaq styled exchanges – the Shenzhen-based Chinext (aka “3rd board), the Beijing based “New Third Board” and the very new “Special Shanghai Board.” These three exchanges have less stringent listing criteria, and include other local companies, many of which are offline-economy focused or niche players with slowing growth. Chinese stocks on all of these exchanges fell steadily for roughly the four years leading up to last summer.

????Meanwhile, the Chinese economy kept growing and many publicly-listed companies exhibited solid financial performance. As a result, Chinese stocks got cheaper on a multiple basis during this period and started to look more attractive. Eventually a rally ensued, initially based on fundamentals. Subsequently, more liberal government policies, including the enhanced ability for individuals (retail investors) to buy on margin, began to fuel further stock appreciation as investors had access to more capital and a thirst to bet on appreciating equities. This spiraled on itself until roughly one month ago when Chinese stocks began their nose-dive. The surge was meaningful – for example, A-Shares were up on average approximately 140% in the 12 months before the fall of the past 3-4 weeks.

????What is the government doing and why?

????The government has a priority to build flourishing, open capital markets in China. One important step is to have some of the highest quality Chinese companies trade locally. As local Chinese stocks rallied up until a month ago, an arbitrage window began to open up. Chinese companies trading in the US with ADRs looked like they’d have much higher valuations on Chinese exchanges. As a result, several take-private transactions were announced, where local Chinese funds partnered with management teams and local financial institutions to announce buyout offers for ADR, U.S.-listed Chinese companies, with the ultimate plan of restructuring these companies as onshore Chinese entities and taking them public locally. Given the government’s priority of building out the local Chinese stock markets, I believe there’s tacit support for these types of deals, and many of the U.S.-listed ADRs rallied on rumors of more take-private offers coming.

????Now with the local markets in free fall, the Chinese government is more focused in the short term on trying to calm the markets, similar to the moves we’ve seen the U.S. government make in times of local market strife. To date, these moves seem pretty draconian (e.g., unilaterally locking up insiders from selling stock for a long while, closing the IPO window, etc.) and have been ineffective in reversing the slide. Making matters worse, many companies have halted trading in their own stocks, further stoking panic fears among investors who are getting margin calls and needing to find liquidity urgently.