????上周末，希臘同債權人的救助協議談判破裂。希臘政府隨后于本周一關閉了所有銀行以及股市，并對現金提款進行限制。這個地中海國家岌岌可危，已處于金融崩潰的邊緣。

????希臘的債權人正采取強硬態度，這無可厚非。希臘應于周二向國際貨幣基金組織償還到期的17億美元，但歐洲央行拒絕發放緊急貸款，除非希臘承諾進行有意義的經濟改革。盡管希臘政府公布了一項增加稅收以籌集更多資金的計劃，但歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織對此表示懷疑，這主要是因為增稅會阻礙未來經濟增長。他們更希望看到希臘大幅削減開支。

????問題在于，希臘早已無法回頭。實施嚴格的緊縮措施無法穩定希臘經濟；反而可能抑制經濟發展。如今，歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織需要做出決定：冒險懲罰希臘以警戒其它債務纏身的歐洲國家是否值得？要知道，如果希臘崩潰，巨大的經濟動蕩必將殃及大部分歐洲國家。

????目前的局面使我想起了過去幾年里一些經濟學家提出的一個論點：希臘金融危機的破壞力可能堪比甚至超過當年著名投行雷曼兄弟破產。雷曼兄弟于2008年倒閉，由此引發的市場恐慌情緒迅速席卷整個美國金融體系。當時，剛剛出手救助了貝爾斯登的美國政府，因為擔心樹立不好的先例，不愿救助雷曼兄弟。然而，美國政府未能預見到，雷曼兄弟是多米諾骨牌中的一塊，一損則俱損。

????此事的教訓是，最終導致危機全面爆發的，不光是其它市場參與者對雷曼兄弟的風險敞口，還有對金融體系的信心減弱。在目睹了雷曼兄弟被拋棄后，銀行感到它們不能依靠美國政府的救助來度過正在發酵的次貸危機。因此，它們停止了同業拆借，也停止了向其它企業放款，這迅速導致了信貸凍結、貸款利率大幅攀升。

????眾所周知，最終的結果非常糟糕。最終，美國不得不前所未有的救助了幾乎所有大型金融機構，包括美國銀行、花旗集團、高盛、摩根士丹利等，還救助了保險業巨頭美國國際集團以及汽車制造商通用汽車。可以說，如果美國政府當初對雷曼兄弟施以援手，從而防止市場恐慌，并使其他銀行有時間來減少對不良次貸的風險敞口，后果可能不會這么嚴重，經濟也有可能實現軟著陸。

????此外，正如《紐約時報》所言，美國政府對美國國際集團的救助表明，政府出手救市完全可以做到保護納稅人。不過，當時美國政府更擔心會縱容不良行為，因而未能遵循審慎的行動計劃。最終，美國國會和白宮別無選擇，只能違背初心。希臘的批評者們應該從此事中吸取教訓。據《洛杉磯時報》稱，希臘經濟崩潰的真正威脅，不光是債務違約或退出歐元區，而是恐慌蔓延，廣泛波及歐洲市場。

????這反過來可能鼓勵投資者不管不顧的抽回資金：債權人要求立即還款，借貸成本暴漲，普通儲戶紛紛取現，其結果是，銀行資金枯竭，而意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等本已疲弱不堪的國家，則陷入死亡漩渦。而且危機將進一步蔓延，因為對歐元的信任危機將影響整個歐盟市場。甚至可能出現大范圍的市場拋售和銀行擠兌。

????在雷曼危機期間，政府監管部門對于縱容“大到不能倒”的機構心存憂慮，它們的擔心不無道理。但在此過程中，它們恰恰創造出了更多“大到不能倒”的實例。與其他許多更發達的歐洲經濟體相比，希臘經濟體量不大，但其一旦崩潰，則可能對歐洲其他國家造成巨大影響。就此而言，希臘恰似雷曼兄弟，歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織在放任希臘崩潰前應該認識到這一點。（財富中文網）

????本文作者Kumar是一名科技及商業評論員，曾就職于科技、媒體以及電信投資銀行。Kumar未持有文中提到的任何公司的股票。

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????After bailout talks broke down with Greece’s creditors over the weekend, the government on Monday closed all banks, the stock market and put restrictions on cash withdrawals as the Mediterranean nation teeters on the verge of a financial meltdown.

????Greece’s creditors are playing hardball, which is understandable. The country is due to repay $1.7 billion to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, but the European Central Bank has refused to extend emergency funding unless Greece promises to institute meaningful reforms to its economy. While the Greek government has unveiled a plan to increase taxes to raise more money, the European Union and the IMF are skeptical — mainly because higher taxes could impede economic growth in the future. They would rather see sharp spending cuts.

????The problem is that Greece has already gone past the point of no return. Implementing severe austerity measures won’t stabilize its economy; it would actually choke off the economy. At this point, the EU and IMF need to decide whether making an example of Greece to Europe’s other debt-trouble nations is worth risking the immense economic turmoil that will surely infect most of Europe if Greece collapses.

????Today’s situation brings to mind an argument that some economists have posed over the past few years: Greece’s financial disaster could be as bad, if not worse, than Lehman Brothers, the storied investment bank that collapsed in 2008 and sparked a market panic that quickly spread through the entire U.S. financial system. In that case, the government was unwilling to bail out Lehman because it had just saved Bear Stearns and was wary of setting a bad precedent. But it failed to foresee the chain of dominos that the bank was a part of and would inevitably bring down.

????The lesson there was that it wasn’t just the exposure that other market players had to Lehman, but the erosion of confidence in the financial system that led to a full-blown crisis. Banks, after witnessing the abandonment of Lehman, felt they could not rely on the help of the U.S. government to weather their brewing subprime mortgage storms. As a result, they stopped lending to each other and to other businesses, which led to an instant credit freeze and a dangerous increase in borrowing rates.

????The aftermath, as the world remembers, was very bad. It necessitated an unprecedented bailout of nearly every large financial institution, including Bank of America BAC -3.04% , Citigroup C -2.59% , Goldman Sachs GS -2.59% , and Morgan Stanley MS -3.01% , as well as insurance giant AIG AIG -1.82% and automaker General Motors GM -3.35% . It can be argued that had the government saved Lehman, thereby preventing market panic and giving other banks time to unwind their exposure to toxic subprime mortgages, the fallout might have been somewhat contained and a softer economic landing achieved.

????In addition, a bailout, as The New York Times points out, could have been easily structured to protect taxpayers, as the U.S. government’s rescue of AIG illustrates. At the time, though, Washington was more worried about excusing bad behavior than following the prudent plan of action. In the end, Congress and the White House would have no choice but to do what they didn’t want to. Greece’s detractors should learn from this experience. The real threat from a Greek economic collapse is not just the default on its debt or its exit from the euro, but a larger panic that could ripple across broader European markets, according to The LA Times.

????That, in turn, could encourage investors to flee their positions regardless of merit; creditors demanding their money overnight, borrowing costs skyrocketing, and ordinary depositors withdrawing their cash in hordes – bleeding banks dry and sending already weak nations, such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal, into a death spiral. And neither would this disease remain contained to a few pockets since a crisis of confidence in the euro would impact the entire EU business establishment. A broad market sell-off and widespread bank runs are not out of the question.

????During the Lehman crisis, government regulators fretted about condoning Too-Big-to-Fail, and rightfully so. But in the process they only created many more instances of Too-Big-to-Fail. Greece is small compared with many other more developed European economies, but the potential impact of its collapse on the rest of the region is not. As such, it is exactly like Lehman, and the EU and IMF should realize that before allowing it to collapse.

????Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. Kumar does not own shares of the companies mentioned in this article.