????第三季度，中國GDP增長率降至7.3%，高于許多分析師預計的7.2%，令人驚喜。但這仍然是走出2009年全球金融危機深淵后，中國經濟出現的最慢增長率。

????受此影響，周一亞洲股市應聲告跌，但原因可能跟大家想的不一樣。分析師指出，交易員拋售股票或許是因為，盡管中國GDP增長率滑落至歷史低點，但仍然超過預期，從而降低了中國政府采取大規模刺激措施的可能性。換句話說，新的GDP數字長期來看對中國是好消息。

????香港咨詢機構龍洲經訊（Gavekal Dragonomics）的中國經濟學家陳龍寫道：“現在中國政府方面似乎傾向于接受經濟增速放慢，并更加注重控制金融風險。”

????2009年，中國政府斥6000億元巨資應對金融危機，在之后的幾年，經濟學界、建言者一直希望中國能夠改善巨額負債和不良貸款。但在那之后，只要剛剛出現經濟減速的苗頭,中國政府仍會通過各種刺激措施為經濟體系注入資金。就在今年春天，中國政府還出臺了提振經濟的刺激措施，包括建設保障房和修建鐵路項目。而現在，中國政府看來更傾向于接受降低杠桿水平和推動改革帶來的必然后果——增長放緩。

????野村證券（Nomura Securities）預估，由于樓市長期低迷，今年中國的GDP少增長了1.4個百分點。同時，刺激經濟的難度比以往更大。周二，野村經濟學家在一份致客戶的報告中指出：“寬松政策的效力減弱，這可能是因為房地產市場回調，許多上游行業產能過剩以及公司負債率過高給經濟帶來了巨大阻力。”

????中國政府允許經濟增速略微下滑(今年的GDP增長目標是7.5%)，這并不很令人吃驚。今年初，國家總理李克強公布了這個目標；其他政府官員立即表示，就算沒有達到這個目標也不要緊。財政部長樓繼偉就曾對記者表示，7.2%的增長率應該足以創造就業機會并控制通貨膨脹。

????本月，中國政府再次表示，經濟增長步伐放慢將是中國短期前景的一部分。作為兩大政府智囊機構之一，社科院對政策的影響很大。該機構估計，今年中國GDP將增長7.3%，明年的增速只有7%。這表明，如果經濟增速放慢有助于改善中國的金融情況，可以減輕大量地方政府債務并改善刺激性項目回報率低的狀況，中國政府可能會對這個結果滿意。

????降低GDP增長目標后，地方政府就會有更多的空間來推行改革，包括那些針對重污染行業的改革措施，這些行業造成的空氣污染使中國面臨一個造價高昂又困難重重的任務。但同時，降低GDP增長目標會削弱中國在投資者眼中的吸引力，研究機構世界大型企業聯合會（Conference Board）周一預測，2020-2025年中國GDP增速可能降至3.9%，該預估比其他研究機構的預估更加悲觀；但這也表明，越來越多的人開始認為中國這個世界第二大經濟體的增長速度會出現大幅滑坡。（財富中文網）

????China’s gross domestic product growth fell to 7.3% in the third quarter, a nice surprise for analysts expecting the figure to be 7.2% but still the slowest rate since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

????The news sent Asian stocks lower on Monday, but not for the reason you might expect. Analysts said traders were likely selling because the better-than-expected GDP figure, albeit low historically, dims the prospects for a large government stimulus in China. In other words, the GDP number was good news for China in the long-term.

????“Beijing now seems inclined to accept the growth slowdown, and focus more on getting financial risks under control,” wrote Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.

????Advisors and economists have been hoping for years China would mend its massive debts and bad loans after the government’s wasteful $600 billion response to the financial crisis in 2009. Instead, that initial boost was followed by a variety of stimulus measures pumping money into the system at the earliest hint of a slowdown. As late as this spring, the government unveiled spending measures to boost the economy, from low-income housing development to additional railway spending. Beijing now looks more inclined to accept lower growth as the inevitable result of trimming leverage and enacting reforms.

????In China, where a protracted housing downturn is lopping off 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth this year, according to estimates by Nomura, it’s also been more difficult than before to give a jolt to the system. “The reduced efficacy of policy easing may be related to the powerful headwinds coming from the property market correction, the overcapacity ?in many upstream industries and an over-leveraged corporate sector,” Nomura economists said in a note to clients Tuesday.

????China allowing GDP growth to slid a little—the country’s target growth rate for this year is 7.5%—shouldn’t be a big surprise. Earlier this year, when Premier Li Keqiang released the target figure, other officials almost immediately said it would be just fine if China missed it. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told reporters back then that 7.2% growth would be enough to create jobs and control inflation.

????This month China’s government again indicated that lower growth is part of China’s near-term future. One of the top two government think tanks, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which has strong influence on policy, estimated that GDP growth would hit 7.3% this year and just 7% in 2015—a signal that China may be content with lower growth if it helps shore up the country’s finances suffering from big local government debts and low-returning stimulus projects.

????Lower GDP targets allow local Chinese governments more latitude to follow through on reforms, such as those targeting heavy-polluting industries responsible for the country’s costly and embarrassing air pollution. At the same time, they take some gloss off the country in the eyes of investors: the Conference Board, a research group, said on Monday China’s GDP growth may fall to 3.9% in 2020-2025, a much more pessimistic forecast than other researchers’, but one that reflects growing thinking that growth in the world’s second largest economy is bound for big-time slowdowns.