????大局已定。阿里巴巴（Alibaba）上市當天漲幅驚人。華爾街青睞的客戶發了一筆數十億美元的橫財，為他們創造賺錢機會的投行也將從這些心存感激的客戶那里得到數以十億計的回饋，而讓這一切成為現實的阿里巴巴所有者應當倍感慚愧。

????差一點忘了說，現在我們知道了——至少在眼下——要得到阿里巴巴的股票得花多少錢。這場“秀”應該讓大家感到驚艷，但對這只股票大家應該敬而遠之。

????周五，也就是9月19日，阿里巴巴上市首日收于93.89美元。剛一開盤這只股票就突破了90美元，而且幾乎一整天都保持在90美元以上；下午4點收盤時，阿里巴巴上漲了25.89美元，和68美元的發行價相比躥升了38%。這個發行價在阿里巴巴就要上市前才敲定，是機構投資者和少數個人從承銷商那里拿到的“內部價”。按93.89美元的股價計算，這家中國電子商務巨擘的市值為2314億美元，達到國際領先水平，超過了很多上市已久的公司，比如市值均為1770億美元的甲骨文（Oracle）和英特爾（Intel），以及市值1930億美元的輝瑞（Pfizer）。

????這次外界大肆炒作的首發有些諷刺，原因有兩方面。首先，上市當天股價飆升帶來的欣喜之情掩蓋了一個明顯的事實，那就是一些人發的橫財都來自另一些人的口袋。然而，沒有人提到那些輸家，就連輸家自己也是如此。其次，這樣的估值水平給阿里巴巴設定了一個盈利標準，只有達標投資者才能受益。巨大的市值讓這只大型電商股必要的攀升顯得相當夸張——對于錯失“內部價”的投資者來說更是過于夸張，那時候的阿里巴巴絕對是樁便宜的好買賣。

????通過這次IPO，阿里巴巴本身和它的那些所有者以每股68美元的價格發行了3.20億股，投行方面有權按發行價再認購4800萬股。那么，讓我們從已經發行和可能發行的股票數量開始，它們的總量為3.68億股，按每股68美元的水平計算，融資總額為250億美元。但要知道，如果按93.89美元的收盤價發行，從而讓阿里巴巴及其股東獲得這些股票的全部價值，他們籌集到的就不是250億美元，而是346億。或者說，他們把96億美元“當做了小費”，同時還向六家承銷商支付了約3.50億美元手續費。也就是說，阿里巴巴及其大股東用近100億美元的成本籌集了250億美元資金，相當于產生了40%的“銷售費用”。華爾街的數學難道不美妙嗎？

????那么，贏家和輸家都是誰呢？作為一個整體，最大的贏家是對沖基金等機構，他們在一天之內實現了96億美元的賬面和現金收益。作為IPO的策劃者，六家承銷商也大賺了一筆。客戶得到這96億美元橫財后，將用幾周乃至幾個月的時間把其中的30%以高額傭金的形式回饋承銷商。也就是說，除了3.50億美元的手續費，承銷商還將獲利29億美元。別忘了阿里巴巴高層，他們給了自己按發行價認購2200萬股的權力，這讓他們也能在一天之內賺到5.70億美元。

????It’s official. Alibaba’s IPO pop was stupendous, Wall Street’s favorite clients get billions of dollars in found money, investment banks will pocket billions from those grateful clients for orchestrating the windfall, and the owners who let it happen should be thoroughly ashamed.

????I almost forgot to mention: Now that we know—at least for now—the sheik’s ransom you’ll have to pay to own Alibaba stock, you should marvel at the show. But avoid the stock.

????On Friday, September 19, Alibaba shares closed its first day of trading at $93.89. The stock shot into the $90s right at the opening bell and pretty much stayed there all day, registering a gain by the 4 p.m. close of $25.89. That’s a pop of 38%, from the offering price of $68, the insider price that underwriters charged institutional investors and a small group of individuals just before Alibaba started trading. At $93.89, the Chinese e-commerce colossus now boasts a world-class market cap of $231.4 billion. Its valuation exceeds those of such market veterans as Oracle and Intel (both $177 billion), and Pfizer ($193 billion).

????This heavily hyped debut is a travesty in two respects. First, the euphoria over the gigantic opening-day jump masks what should be obvious: that every dollar someone earned in quick gains came from someone else’s pocket—and no one is talking about the losers, not even the losers themselves. Second, the valuation sets a benchmark for how much Alibaba has to earn in order to enrich investors. The Chinese e-commerce giant’s fabulous market cap makes the necessary climb quite steep; too steep for investors who missed the insider share price—the one time Alibaba really was a steal.

????In the IPO, Alibaba, the company itself, and several of its owners, sold 320 million shares at $68, and the investment bankers reserve the right to buy 48 million more shares at the offering price. So let’s start with the total shares already sold, and likely to be sold, at the $68 price. That’s 368 million shares. The offering will then raise $25 billion. Remember, if Alibaba and its shareholders had gotten full value for their shares at the closing price of $93.89, they would have collected not $25 billion, but $34.6 billion. So they left $9.6 billion “on the table.” They also paid around $350 million in fees to their six underwriters. So it cost Alibaba and big shareholders almost $10 billion to raise $25 billion; that’s the equivalent to a sales charge of 40%. Isn’t Wall Street math fabulous?

????So who are the winners and losers? As a group, the biggest winners are the hedge funds and other institutions that tallied $9.6 billion in paper and cash gains in a single day. As architects of the offering, the six underwriters are golden as well. They should recoup 30% of the $9.6 billion windfall handed to their clients in high commissions over the coming weeks and months. That’s $2.9 billion, in addition to $350 million in fees. Let’s not forget the managers, who granted themselves an option to buy 22 million shares at the offering price. Their one-day gains: $570 million.