????今年夏初，許多投資者在這方面吃了大虧。6月中旬，總部位于明尼阿波利斯的醫療器械制造商Medtronic發布公告稱，該公司將斥資430億美元收購愛爾蘭競爭對手Covidien。幾周來，倫敦和紐約等地的分析師一直覺得Medtronic正在歐洲挑選收購對象，目的是通過和當地公司合并來降低稅率，就像其他幾家美國醫療保健企業最近所做的那樣。

????有些分析師從字里行間看出，這只是Medtronic將收購誰的問題。而Covidien一直都沒有參與到這個“傳聞鏈”中。6月4日，有消息稱Medtronic將收購英國人工關節制造商Smith & Nephew。相關媒體報道讓Smith & Nephew的股價上漲了12%。Summer Street Research Partners分析師蘭迪上調了Smith & Nephew的目標價。蘭迪承認，接受記者采訪時，自己讓這條消息變得更加可信。蘭迪說：“有關Medtronic的傳聞出現時，我說這很合情合理，原因是在我看來，Smith & Nephew對Medtronic來說是個切實的收購目標。”

????當Covidien披露真正的收購目標后，幾乎沒有哪個兜售傳聞的人公開承認了自己的錯誤。相反，投資者和分析師開始再次醞釀傳聞，他們猜想這個行業中的其他公司，比如強生（Johnson & Johnson）和史塞克公司（Stryker）也可能發起收購。

????本著讓傳聞延續下去的精神，幾名投資者向《財富》透露了他們在并購方面的預期。有人在Mergerize.com上預測蘋果公司將收購照相機廠商GoPro；還有人將一個關于Joy Global公司成為大宗期權交易對象的Twitter帖子解讀為，這家設在密爾沃基州的采礦設備公司可能被收購，德羅根對此表示贊同。

????華萊士說，他一直在關注半導體公司博通（Broadcom），后者正計劃剝離那些表現不夠理想的業務，“擺脫這些業務后，博通就會成為一個良好的收購整合機會……”開始猜吧。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????Many investors learned this the hard way earlier this summer, when Minneapolis-based medical device maker Medtronic announced in mid-June that it would buy its Irish competitor Covidienfor $43 billion. For weeks, analysts from London to New York had been speculating that Medtronic had been shopping in Europe, looking to merge with a company there to secure a lower tax rate, as several other U.S. health care companies had recently done.

????For analysts reading between the lines, it was just a matter of who Medtronic would buy. Covidien, though, had never been part of the chain of rumors. By June 4, there were whispers that Medtronic would acquire British artificial joint manufacturer Smith &Nephew , whose shares rose 12% on the media reports. Landy, the Summer Street analyst, raised his price target for Smith & Nephew, and concedes that he helped perpetuate the theory when reporters called him. “When the Medtronic rumor broke, I said that makes good sense,” Landy says, “because to me, Smith & Nephew was a viable target for Medtronic.”

????When the actual target—Covidien—was announced, few rumor-mongers publicly admitted their mistake. Instead, investors and analysts began churning the rumor mill anew, speculating that other industry players, such as Johnson & Johnson and Stryker , might launch bids of their own.

????In the spirit of keeping the gossip going, several investors shared their own takeover theories with Fortune. Drogen agreed with one Mergerize prediction that Apple would buy GoPro, and interpreted a Twitter post about heavy options trading on Joy Global as a sign that the Milwaukee mining-equipment company might soon be acquired. Shortly after, Joy Global shares surged 8% in a single day. The reason? What else? Acquisition rumors.

????Wallace says he’s been watching Broadcom , a semiconductor company that is planning to sell off one of its underperforming units: “Once they get rid of that,” he says, “the rest of the business would make for a nice consolidation opportunity for somebody to buy….” Let the speculation begin.