????4月份，林德扎甚至把風(fēng)投家馬克?安德森扯了進來。他在Twitter上問，如果安德森是蘋果公司（Apple）CEO，他會收購哪家公司？安德森接了招，說Twitter和Dropbox都是理想的收購對象。隨后，大量跟帖者都提出了自己的建議，比如微軟（Microsoft）本該收購云存儲服務(wù)商Dropbox。對于微軟的收購目標(biāo)，林德扎有自己的看法：“他們很可能收購Dropbox的同行Box。這個感受是我根據(jù)對Box公司CEO阿倫?利維Twitter留言的觀察得來的。”

????就這樣，傳聞不斷地出現(xiàn)。

????對此最為熟悉的莫過于德羅根。他離開了對沖基金行業(yè)，轉(zhuǎn)而建立了一家科技初創(chuàng)公司Estimize，市場觀察人士可以通過它來預(yù)測公司業(yè)績。3月份，Estimize的網(wǎng)站Mergerize.com上線，人們可以在這里發(fā)帖，推測今后可能出現(xiàn)的并購。德羅根說，這個想法來自幾只大型對沖基金，它們希望不斷了解市場上流行的思路。

????德羅根說：“他們一直在相互聯(lián)系，但絕對不能通過正式途徑。”他指出，大型對沖基金的分析師和投資者都在Mergerize.com注了冊，但使用的是昵稱，而非真實姓名：“這就是華爾街上從眾心態(tài)如此嚴重的原因，因為所有人都在關(guān)注別人有什么想法，他們需要知道自己是否和市場共識脫節(jié)了。”

????到目前為止，人們在Mergerize.com上的預(yù)測兌現(xiàn)了一條。亞特蘭大地區(qū)營銷技術(shù)和經(jīng)營顧問阿南德?塔克爾在3月26日預(yù)計，IBM將在3個月內(nèi)收購設(shè)在亞特蘭大的營銷初創(chuàng)公司Silverpop，只比正式公告早了兩周。塔克爾說，他一直在密切追蹤和分析這個行業(yè)的公司，包括Silverpop。

????塔克爾發(fā)帖前一天，亞特蘭大一家商業(yè)期刊引述未具名消息人士的話報道稱，IBM和Silverpop正在商討收購事項，但這篇報道并未在整個美國引起關(guān)注。設(shè)有“傳聞”板塊的投資新聞網(wǎng)站24/7 Wall St.指出，盡管“IBM沒有重大消息”可以披露，但當(dāng)天IBM的股價上漲了近4%，而且成交量幾乎翻番（塔克爾說：“像這樣的準(zhǔn)確和不準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測一直都有，所以當(dāng)Mergerize.com出現(xiàn)時，我覺得自己應(yīng)該在那上面發(fā)帖預(yù)測一下。”）。

????不過，當(dāng)并購傳聞被證偽的時候，它們往往會讓投資者步入歧途。匿名通信軟件Secret今年背上了惡名，原因是有人用它發(fā)布虛假并購消息。有些投資者懷疑，相關(guān)公司針對自己正在考慮的并購自行制造了傳聞，目的是獲得市場反饋，或者投行人士通過放出“內(nèi)部消息”來迫使相關(guān)公司完成并購。舉例來說，德羅根指出，某些知名公司的投資者關(guān)系部門一直在給他打電話，內(nèi)容都和人們在Mergerize.com上預(yù)測的并購目標(biāo)有關(guān)。

????德羅根說：“這種電話游戲非常瘋狂。”他羅列了一些例子：“市場有多少次預(yù)測擁有高價值房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)的電子產(chǎn)品零售商RadioShack將被收購？有多少次人們預(yù)測微軟將收購黑莓（BlackBerry）？總是有這樣的傳聞，而希望它們變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實總是那些投行人士。他們幾乎就像是在說‘請采取行動吧！’”

????In April, Lindzon even dragged venture capitalist Marc Andreessen into the rumor mill, asking him in a Twitter chat, if he were CEO of Apple , which companies would he buy? Andreessen took the bait, naming Twitter and Dropbox as good candidates. Meanwhile, myriad followers responded with their own suggestions for deals, such as Microsoft acquiring Dropbox instead. The StockTwits founder, meanwhile, had his own ideas about a Microsoft target: “They will probably buy Box. Feels that way to me based on Levie tweets,” Lindzon chimed in, referring to Box CEO Aaron Levie.

????And so the rumor mill churns.

????No one knows this better than Drogen, who left the hedge fund world to found a tech startup, Estimize, which allows market watchers to predict financial results for companies. In March, Estimize launched Mergerize.com, for people to post their guesses about future M&A deals. Drogen says the idea came from several large hedge funds, who wanted to keep tabs on theories floating around the market.

????“They already call each other all the time, but in an official way they could never do that,” Drogen says, adding that major hedge fund analysts and investors are participating on Mergerize, but are using pseudonyms instead of their real names. “That’s why the Street is such a herding mentality, because everybody’s paying attention to what everybody else thinks, because they need to understand when they’re out of consensus.”

????So far, one Mergerize member’s prediction has even come true. AnandThaker, a marketing technology and operations consultant in the Atlanta area, predicted on March 26 that IBM would acquire Atlanta-based marketing startup Silverpop within three months, just two weeks before the deal was announced. Thaker says he closely follows and analyzes companies within the industry, including Silverpop.

????His post came a day after an Atlanta business journal reported on the negotiations, citing anonymous sources, but that report did not make national news. The investment news site 24/7 Wall St., which has a section entitled “Rumors,” noted that IBM rose nearly 4% that day, with roughly double its normal trading volume, despite the fact that “the company had no big news” to report. (“There are other such accurate—and inaccurate—predictions, so when Mergerize emerged, I thought I’d post one of those predictions,” Thaker says.)

????At least as often, however, M&A rumors lead investors astray when they turn out not to be true. The anonymous messaging app Secret gained notoriety this year when people used it to share false acquisition news. Some investors suspect that companies themselves plant rumors about M&A they’re considering in order to get the market’s feedback, or that investment bankers leak “intel” to pressure companies to close a deal. Drogen, for one, says he has been fielding calls from certain high-profile investor relations departments regarding takeover targets predicted on Mergerize.

????“The game of telephone that takes place with these things is crazy,” says Drogen, listing examples: “How many times has RadioShack been expected to get taken over for their real estate value? Or that Microsoft is buying BlackBerry ? That rumor is always going around and it’s always the bankers who want the deal to happen. It’s basically like, ‘Somebody please bid!’”