????的確，傳聞經常引起波瀾的原因并不是要發生什么事，而是人們認為將要發生，或者應該發生什么事。投資者同樣關注這些潛在并購信號，分析某些和并購有關的金融和經濟指標，仔細聆聽首席執行官和首席財務官的并購興趣，以尋找蛛絲馬跡。擺放在大多數職業投資者和交易員案頭的彭博（Bloomberg）終端不停地滾動著一份“全球潛在收購目標”名單。目前，這份名單上的公司已經超過3300家。

????投資公司Barrow Street Advisors已將其注意力從私募股權轉向共同基金。該公司指出，2009年以來，真正被收購的美國公司有987家，而它持有其中60家公司的股份，占了整整6%，是整個市場平均水平的三倍以上。該公司主管大衛?貝克特爾說：“我們當然不會從傳聞中尋找思路。”他指出，該公司尋找的投資對象都有讓收購方感興趣的特點。

????不過，條件恰當時，投資者幾乎會相信任何跟并購有關的消息——當有人抱著這份信心開始交易時，其他人也會更加相信這個消息，并且也會開始進行同樣的交易，從而讓相關股票變得誘人，也讓期權市場變得熱鬧起來。聯博資產管理公司（Alliance Bernstein）前證券投資經理斯科特?華萊土最近在芝加哥成立了對沖基金公司Shorepath Capital Management。他說：“最終，如果出現了傳聞，就會有人覺得可信，隨后就會有人在股市里采取和傳聞所指方向一致的行動，這就會引起很多人的注意。有許多人相信的傳聞就是好傳聞。如果相關股票隨之而動，那就可能意味著別人掌握了我不知道的信息。”

????投資老手都說，華爾街妥善地隱藏著一個秘密，那就是專業交易員相互交換想法的頻繁程度遠遠超過了合規部門允許的水平。當這些交易員在股東大會上見面，相互打電話，或者通過網絡論壇進行交流時，交易所一般都被蒙在鼓里。

????蘭迪說：“有了社交媒體，你就不必再通過高層中的朋友來了解人們的想法了。這些消息會迅速而廣泛地傳播開來。”他曾目睹這種情況——他在一篇分析師評論中猜測某家公司可能成為別人收購的對象。幾經加工后，他的保守猜想讓整個網絡都把這家公司視為收購目標，后者的股價因此大幅上漲。

????當然，如果投資者分享的不僅僅是個假設，而是有關未來并購的機密信息，就會出現問題。基于這樣的非公開信息采取行動叫做內幕交易，這是違法行為。

????不過，傳聞開始四處流傳的原因往往是投資者就某個特定并購思路尋找反饋意見，或者一些打著如意算盤的人（比如股東和投行人士）有意延續這些傳聞；又或者做預測就是那么有意思，就像《財富》雜志在今年1月刊中體會到的那樣——當時《財富》正在猜測美國電話電報（AT&T）和沃達豐（Vodafone）以及亞馬遜（Amazon）和美國郵政（United States Postal Service）會不會合并。

????以StockTwits為例，這家網站專門通過最多140個字符的帖子共享股市投資思路，其中許多帖子都涉及潛在并購對象。該網站創始人霍華德?林德扎說：“我就是這么做的。我會思考‘Twitter收購這家公司，或者那家公司買下這家公司是否合理？’這可不是內幕交易，這只是分享一個想法，看看是不是有人也這樣想。”

????Indeed, rumors frequently swirl not because something is going to happen, but rather because people think it will…or should. Investors watch for the same signals of potential deals, analyzing certain financial and economic measures associated with acquisitions, and listening for hints of M&A interest from CEOs and CFOs. Bloomberg terminals—on the desks of most pro investors and traders—keep a running list of “potential global takeover targets” that currently number more than 3,300.

????Barrow Street Advisors, an investment firm that has switched its focus from private equity to mutual funds, points out that 60 of its portfolio holdings have been acquired since 2009—a full 6% of the 987 U.S. companies that were actually acquired during the period, which is more than triple the acquisition rate for the market as a whole. “And that’s without going to the rumor mill for ideas,” boasts David Bechtel, a principal at Barrow, saying that his firm looks for companies with the same characteristics that buyout firms would find attractive.

????When the right factors are present, though, investors will believe almost any whisper of a deal—and when someone begins trading on that belief, it strengthens the belief of others, who often start trading, too, juicing the stocks and lighting up the options market. “At the end of the day, if there is a rumor, and there is credibility—and there’s action in the stock market that points in the direction of the rumor—that’s something that a lot of people would pay attention to,” says Scott Wallace, a former Alliance Bernstein portfolio manager who recently launched a hedge fund firm in Chicago, Shorepath Capital Management. “What makes a good rumor is a lot of people believe it. And if the stock’s moving on it, then maybe they know something I don’t know.”

????A well-kept Wall Street secret, say veteran investors, is that professional traders bounce ideas off each other much more often than their compliance departments would allow. The exchanges are typically behind the scenes, when they run into each other at shareholder meetings, or chat over the phone or in online forums.

????“With social media, you don’t have to have friends in high places to see what people are thinking,” Landy says. “And that can be spread wild and fast.” Landy has seen this firsthand—when he speculated in an analyst commentary that a certain company could be a takeover candidate. His gentle musing snowballed into the company being labeled a target all over the web, bumping up the stock’s price.

????Of course, problems arise when investors share not a mere hypothesis, but rather confidential intel about a future M&A deal. Acting on such non-public information is known as insider trading, and it’s illegal.

????But often, rumors begin to circulate because investors are looking for feedback on a particular M&A theory—or wishful thinkers (say, shareholders and investment bankers) perpetuate them. Or because it’s just fun to make predictions, as Fortune learned when, in our January issue, we took odds on potential mergers between AT&T and Vodafone , and Amazon and the United States Postal Service.

????Take, for example, Howard Lindzon, the founder of StockTwits, the site dedicated to sharing stock ideas in 140-character posts—many of which include potential M&A candidates, he says. “I do it. I’ll speculate on my stream, ‘Wouldn’t it make sense if Twitter bought this company, or that company bought this one?’” Lindzon says. “It’s not insider trading; it’s just sharing an idea. Just to see if somebody else is thinking the same thing.”