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中國制造業PMI下滑震動全球

中國制造業PMI下滑震動全球

Geoffrey Smith 2014-08-26
中國采購經理人指數創3個月新低,市場擔心春季刺激措施的效果已經消失。匯豐銀行大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌認為,中國政府需出臺更多的政策支持,來鞏固經濟復蘇。

????針對全球一些最大經濟體的商業景氣調查結果于上周四出爐,從中可以看出,除美國外,其他地區的經濟看來都失去了增長動力。

????初步結果顯示,中國和歐元區采購經理人指數(PMI)雙雙告跌,盡管二者仍保持著和經濟增長相符的水平。

????中國制造業PMI從7月份的51.7降至50.3,跌幅超過預期,這讓人們擔心今年初政府刺激措施對經濟的推動作用可能已經消失。PMI高于50一般代表經濟處于增長狀態。

????匯豐銀行(HSBC)大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌在公布PMI數據的聲明中說:“我們認為需要更多的政策支持來幫助鞏固經濟復蘇。”

????這條消息造成上海和香港股市雙雙下跌,兩市基準指數分別低收0.4%和0.7%。

????歐元區方面,一個融合制造業和服務業的綜合PMI指數從7月份的53.8降至52.8,其中制造業PMI跌幅超過服務業。服務業和制造業PMI均保持在50以上,這和上周公布的經濟數據多少有些差異——后者表明,第二季度歐元區經濟沒有出現任何增長,夏季開局低迷。

????人們通常認為PMI可以比較及時地反映經濟發展狀況,但歐元區PMI尚未體現出烏克蘭沖突造成的經濟急劇滑坡——歐元區和俄羅斯的貿易已經受到了影響,和其他東歐國家的貿易也是如此,只是程度較輕。

????金融信息供應商Markit公司指出,經歷連續3個月下跌之后,其法國PMI已在50處企穩,但制造業PMI跌至46.5,創15個月新低,而且公司裁員速度也達到了6個月來的最高水平。這些數據公布后,法國股市基準指數CAC-40早盤上漲0.6%,德國DAX指數也上升了0.4%。

????日本經濟的表現也好于預期。其制造業PMI從7月份的50.4升至52.4,推動日經指數上漲0.9%。Markit公司提供的數據顯示,日本就業人數增速創3個月新高,產量和新訂單均大幅上升。

????受增值稅上調影響,近期日本經濟數據一直表現糟糕,許多人都擔心提高增值稅可能扼殺經濟復蘇。不過,Markit公司經濟學家艾米?布朗希爾表示:“日本經濟似乎正在擺脫銷售稅上升的影響;17年前日本也像這樣提高過增值稅,但現在的日本經濟顯得更有韌性。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:Charlie

????Global growth outside the U.S. appeared lost momentum in August, according to business surveys of some of the world’s largest economies published Thursday.

????The Purchasing Managers Indices for China and the Eurozone both fell, although both remained at levels consistent with economic growth, preliminary estimates showed.

????The decline in the Chinese manufacturing PMI, to 50.3 in August from 51.7 in July, was bigger than expected, raising fears that the boost to the economy from government stimulus measures earlier in the year may already have run its course. An index reading above 50 generally signifies growth.

????“We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery,” said Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the release.

????Stocks in both Shanghai and Hong Kong fell on the news, with the benchmark indexes down 0.4% and 0.7% respectively by the close.

????In the Eurozone, a composite index blending both manufacturing and services output fell to 52.8 from 53.8 in July, with the manufacturing index falling more sharply than the services one. Both remained above 50, somewhat at odds with data released last week showing that the Eurozone economy failed to grow at all in the second quarter and started the summer in weak fashion.

????Although the indices are generally seen as a reliable indicator of economic developments more or less in real time, they have failed to pick up the sharp slowdown in the Eurozone as the conflict in Ukraine has taken its toll on trade with Russia and, to a lesser extent, other eastern European countries.

????Markit noted that its French index had stabilized at 50 after three straight declines, albeit the manufacturing index fell to a 15-month low of 46.5 and companies shed jobs at the fastest rate in six months. The French CAC-40 benchmark stock index was up 0.6% by mid-morning in response, while Germany’s DAX index was up 0.4%.

????There was also a positive surprise in Japan, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 50.4 in July, driving the Nikkei index up by 0.9%. Payrolls grew at the fastest rate in three months and there was a sharp rise both in output and new orders, according to index publisher Markit.

????Japan’s recent economic data have been badly distorted by a hike in value-added tax that many feared could stop the recovery in its tracks. However, Markit economist Amy Brownbill said “It would seem that the Japanese economy is recovering from the rise in the sales tax and showing more resilience than 17 years ago when a similar tax hike was implemented.”

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