????上周末，泰國和烏克蘭都出現了大規模示威游行。新興市場投資者不能對此掉以輕心。盡管這兩個國家的抗議活動表面上沒有什么聯系，但引發抗議的都是多年來一直未能得到解決的深層次政治問題。如果泰國或烏克蘭的矛盾真的激化，隨之出現的不利影響可能讓鄰國蒙受巨大經濟損失，也會再次給投資者帶來沉重的打擊。

????今年，新興市場特別不穩定。中國經濟陷入停滯，巴西和埃及政局動蕩。年初，由于擔心美聯儲（Fed）可能壓縮債券購買規模，MSCI新興市場指數（MSCI Emerging Market Index）今年夏天大幅下跌。直到美聯儲出人意料地決定維持債券購買規模不變，這個指數才迅速反彈。雖然有美聯儲帶來的反彈，MSCI新興市場指數今年仍然下跌了5.3%。在此期間，標普500指數（S&P 500）卻一路高歌猛進，漲幅高達27%。

????不過，對收益率的追求仍然會引領投資者重返新興市場，美國和歐洲投資者已經為此投入了數十億美元資金。融資和金融信息平臺Dealogic提供的數據顯示，7月份以來，阿根廷Merval指數上漲了近70%；6-11月期間，新興市場公司的債券發行規模高達710億美元。顯然，新興市場已經復蘇——或者說，有人讓投資者相信新興市場已經復蘇。

????目前，青睞新興市場的投資者正在根據烏克蘭和泰國的局勢發展來決定自己在東歐和東南亞市場的前進方向。抗議活動迅速消耗了這兩個國家的政治和經濟能量，還有可能再次給新興市場投資者帶來出其不意的打擊。

????在泰國，。近十年來，政府最高領導層的腐敗一直在影響泰國經濟的發展前景。民眾已經身心俱疲。經過幾周的抗議示威，泰國總理英拉在上周末宣布解散議會，進行大選。但由于英拉拒絕在選舉前下臺，曼谷的沖突仍在繼續。

????在烏克蘭，親俄羅斯派和親歐盟派的多年政治內斗導致這個國家在經濟方面毫無建樹。俄羅斯希望繼續控制烏克蘭。在俄方敦促下，烏克蘭政府拒絕和歐盟簽訂貿易協議，上周末的抗議活動隨之升級。烏克蘭的熱血青年希望進行大選，以便清除腐敗的政府官員，因為他們認為后者把俄羅斯的利益置于烏克蘭民眾的利益之上。上周二夜間，隨著抗議者占領基輔市中心的廣場，沖突變得更為激烈。

????然而，兩國令人不安的局勢似乎沒有對投資者產生影響。實際上，MSCI新興市場指數上周一反而出現了上漲。俄羅斯規模最大的純交易所交易基金（ETF）The Market Vectors Russia Index ETF當天上揚了0.75%，此前的一個周末烏克蘭示威者在基輔市中心推倒列寧像的時間并沒有產生不利影響。泰國的SET指數周一也高收0.43%。

????指數上升似乎表明一切安好，但情況顯然并非如此。看來，有些投資者已經對抗議示威產生了“審美疲勞”，因而對烏克蘭和泰國的沖突活動視而不見。今年，許多新興市場都出現了“民眾力量”的崛起，但其中有許多都無果而終，這就是投資者對此類事件產生疲勞感的源頭。看起來，市場認為泰國和烏克蘭的情況也會是這樣。

????The eruption of popular protests in Thailand and Ukraine over the weekend shouldn't be taken so lightly by emerging markets investors. The two seemingly unrelated disturbances both revolve around deep-seated and unresolved political issues, which have been simmering for years. Should either of them actually blow, the resulting toxic fallout could have dire economic consequences for their neighbors and deliver yet another pelting to investors.

????The emerging markets have been particularly volatile this year with growth stalling in China and political upheavals disrupting Brazil and Egypt. Worries that the U.S. was set to curb its bond buying program earlier this year sent the MSCI Emerging Market Index plummeting in the summer, only to rebound quickly thereafter when the Federal Reserve unexpectedly decided to keep the program running at full blast. Despite the pullback by the Fed, the MSCI is still down 5.3% on the year. That compares with the S&P 500 (SPX), which has shot up a bubbly 27% during the same time period.

????But the quest for yield has led investors back into the emerging markets, with billions of dollars pouring in from investors in the U.S. and Europe. Argentina's Merval stock market has jumped nearly 70% since July, for example, while EM companies have sold a whopping $71 billion worth in bonds from June to November, according to Dealogic. Clearly, EM is back -- or that is what investors have been led to believe.

????Take what is going on currently in the Ukraine and Thailand, emerging market darlings for their respective orbits in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. Protests in both countries have quickly consumed the political and economic hearts of both countries and threaten to throw EM investors yet another curve ball.

????In Thailand, corruption at the highest levels of power has stunted the peaceful nation's economic growth prospects for nearly a decade. The people have grown tired of it and this weekend, after weeks of protests, were able to push the Prime Minister to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. Disruption continues in Bangkok as the Prime Minister has refused to step down before the elections.

????In Ukraine, years of political infighting between those loyal to their former Russian overlords and those who want to forge closer ties with the European Union has left the country in economic limbo. But protests there went into overdrive this weekend after the government scrapped a trade agreement with the European Union at the behest of Russia, who wants Ukraine to remain in their orbit. Ukrainian patriots want new elections so that they can purge their corrupt government of officials who they believe put the interests of Moscow over that of the Ukrainian people. Fighting there intensified Tuesday night as protestors occupied the central square in Kiev.

????But investors seemed to shrug off these two worrisome developments, indeed, the MSCI EM index actually strengthened on Monday. The Market Vectors Russia index (RSX), the largest dedicated Russian ETF, was up 0.75% on Monday, even though Ukrainian protesters tore down a statue of Lenin in central Kiev over the weekend. Thailand's SET stock index also gained on Monday, up 0.43%.

????The stronger numbers would seem to suggest that all is well, even though that is clearly not the case. It appears that some investors have developed "protest fatigue" and are choosing to simply ignore the conflagrations in Ukraine and Thailand. The fatigue emanates from the deluge of "people power" uprisings in a number of emerging markets this year, many of which simply fizzled out. Apparently, the markets believe that will be the case in these two incidents as well.