????如果你是聯(lián)邦公務(wù)員、到國(guó)家級(jí)景點(diǎn)觀光的游客或者投資者，你就一定感受到了近來(lái)這場(chǎng)國(guó)會(huì)大戲所產(chǎn)生的影響。如果無(wú)法打破目前的僵局，整個(gè)美國(guó)以及世界上很多國(guó)家和地區(qū)遲早都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，美國(guó)政府停擺不僅是一出可悲的鬧劇，它還會(huì)直接影響人們的信心、就業(yè)前景以及養(yǎng)家糊口的能力。即使國(guó)會(huì)同心協(xié)力，但卻只是搞拖延戰(zhàn)術(shù)（似乎越來(lái)越有可能出現(xiàn)這種情況），這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也有可能成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。

????現(xiàn)在，人們已經(jīng)相當(dāng)清楚政府關(guān)門會(huì)有哪些直接影響。無(wú)論是否暫時(shí)下崗，大多數(shù)聯(lián)邦公務(wù)員都無(wú)薪可領(lǐng)。政府辦公能力已降至最低水平，公私交流和跨部門合作也都是如此。

????進(jìn)入第二周后，政府停擺的影響開(kāi)始成倍擴(kuò)大。

????盡管相信自己最終會(huì)拿到工資，一些聯(lián)邦公務(wù)員仍然自然而然地想到減少開(kāi)支。有些地區(qū)的旅游業(yè)受到了重創(chuàng)，讓一些平時(shí)以旅游業(yè)為可靠收入來(lái)源的當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)入不敷出。同時(shí)，眾多政府職能部門（比如審核法定地位）不再向公司開(kāi)放這就延緩了企業(yè)招聘員工的計(jì)劃。就連按揭公司都難以確認(rèn)現(xiàn)有和潛在借款人的具體情況。

????對(duì)大多數(shù)沒(méi)有直接受到影響的美國(guó)人以及世界上其他國(guó)家和地區(qū)來(lái)說(shuō)，這些問(wèn)題目前似乎還相當(dāng)遙遠(yuǎn)。此外，只要聯(lián)邦政府重新投入運(yùn)作（這是肯定的），大多數(shù)不利影響就都只是暫時(shí)的，基本上也是可以挽回的。但很可惜，我們?nèi)匀挥欣碛蓳?dān)心，本次國(guó)會(huì)停擺過(guò)后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能不會(huì)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。此前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率原本就不高，也沒(méi)有創(chuàng)造出足夠的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

????現(xiàn)在，我們選出的議員正要讓政府停擺和主權(quán)債務(wù)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)撞車。尋找政治解決方案從本質(zhì)上講已經(jīng)變成了一種短期的片面措施。在少數(shù)成員特別能影響共和黨談判立場(chǎng)的情況下，現(xiàn)實(shí)一點(diǎn)兒來(lái)說(shuō)，我們最多也只能期望民主、共和兩黨就應(yīng)急措施達(dá)成一些蹩腳的協(xié)議。

????美國(guó)可能會(huì)再次依靠拖延戰(zhàn)術(shù)走出本次國(guó)會(huì)停擺困境。

????雖然消除美國(guó)債務(wù)違約引發(fā)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退這樣迫在眉睫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是件好事，但它幾乎不會(huì)增強(qiáng)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的信心，而這種信心對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇來(lái)說(shuō)非常關(guān)鍵。實(shí)際上，個(gè)人和公司可能都想讓自己更安全一些，這種想法會(huì)進(jìn)一步抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。

????美國(guó)的全球地位也不會(huì)完全不受影響。

????不錯(cuò)，美國(guó)無(wú)須擔(dān)心別人會(huì)很快取代自己而成為超級(jí)大國(guó)，成為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)，成為希望和世界上最完善、最有深度的金融系統(tǒng)建立溝通渠道的那些人的目的地。美國(guó)在大部分國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)互動(dòng)（包括貿(mào)易、金融和多邊政策協(xié)調(diào)）中都發(fā)揮著定海神針的作用，但美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)現(xiàn)在卻在讓其他國(guó)家想方設(shè)法降低對(duì)美國(guó)的依賴程度。如果連這一點(diǎn)都想不到，國(guó)會(huì)就真是蠢到家了。這個(gè)問(wèn)題和美國(guó)在世界上的整體地位有著直接聯(lián)系，因而也影響著美國(guó)的國(guó)土安全。

????If you are a federal employee, a tourist visiting our national sites or an investor, you've already felt the consequences of the latest Congressional theatrics. If the current deadlock continues, it is just a matter of time before the rest of the nation – and also much of the rest of the world – would find that this latest political debacle is more than a sad spectacle; instead, it would directly impact confidence, job prospects and the ability to provide for family members. And this risk could materialize even if Congress gets its act together, but only does so by kicking the can down the road (as seems increasingly likely).

????The immediate effects of the government's shutdown are quite well known by now. Most federal employees – whether furloughed or not – are receiving no pay. Government services have been reduced to a minimum, as have both private-public interactions and multi-agency initiatives.

????Two weeks into the shutdown, the consequences have started to multiply.

????Some federal employees are naturally tempted to slow their spending, even if they are confident that they will be paid eventually. Tourism has been hit hard in some places, starving local businesses from a normally-reliable source of revenue. Meanwhile, companies are no longer able to access a range of government services, including the verification of legal-status, thus slowing their hiring plans. Even mortgage companies are facing difficulties in confirming the particulars of actual and prospective borrowers.

????For most Americans who are not directly impacted, and for the rest of the world, these issues may seem quite distant for now. Moreover, once the federal government reopens (as it will), most of the effects would end up being both temporary and largely reversible. Yet, unfortunately, there are still reasons to worry that our economy may not bounce back as buoyant from this latest Congressional debacle. And it is not as if it was growing at a high rate and creating sufficient jobs.

????With our elected representatives on Capitol Hill now combining the government shutdown with the threat of a sovereign debt default, the search for political solutions has become more short-term and partial in nature. And with a minority being particularly effective at influencing the negotiating position of the Republican party, the best that can be realistically hoped for is some clumsy agreement on stop-gap measures.

????America is likely emerge from this latest phase of Congressional dysfunction with yet another "kick the can down the road" outcome.

????While removing the immediate threat of a global recession associated with a U.S. debt default -- a good thing -- this would do little to strengthen business and consumer confidence that is so critical to a strong economic recovery. Indeed, both individuals and companies may be tempted to increase their self-insurance, thus further dampening economic activity.

????Our global standing would also emerge less than fully intact.

????Yes, America need not worry about being replaced any time soon as the world's superpower, the provider of the global reserve currency, and the destination for those wishing to outsource financial intermediation to what remains the most sophisticated and deepest financial system in the world. But Congress would be foolish not to recognize that it is tempting other countries to explore ways to reduce their reliance on the U.S. as the anchor for the bulk of international economic interactions (including trade, finance and multilateral policy coordination). And this directly speaks to our overall standing in the world, thus also impacting national security.