安倍晉三新政出臺,日本經濟重振有望
????當然,20年來,日本在增長乏力的情況下曾多次承諾為經濟松綁。其中一些承諾得到了兌現,另一些則成為空談。安倍的工作能取得哪些成效仍有待觀察,但日本已經意識到不能光靠積極購買債券來重振經濟,這是個好跡象。 鄰居的經驗可供借鑒 ????摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)日本股票研究部門負責人杰斯帕?科爾3月份發表報告指出,美國顯然不太可能出現像日本那樣的“消失的十年”,因此,日本已表示它希望效仿美國,并在增長策略方面跟上美國的腳步。 ????美國不僅自身沒有問題,美聯儲(Federal Reserve)大量收購債券的措施還幫助美國避免了新一輪的衰退。“除了其他因素,日本央行領導班子的變化表明,日本方面又有了新的動力,要遵循以美聯儲為首的模式,將促增長措施作為貨幣政策的重心。” ????比如說,日本一直在積極參與談判,希望加入《跨太平洋伙伴關系協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。這個協定是美國和環太平洋地區其他國家簽署的自由貿易協議。安倍認為,要繼續成為亞洲主要經濟體,并具備影響亞洲未來的能力,加入這個協定是日本最后的機會。 ????為抵御來自國外的競爭,日本在各個行業都實施繁瑣的監管,從零售到醫療保健再到汽車制造都是如此,這一點眾所周知。而《跨太平洋伙伴關系協定》能消除此類貿易障礙——支持者和安倍都說它將扭轉日本的經濟走勢。 ????不過,農民和其他有影響力的團體仍對此表示反對。安倍能否借助自身人氣來克服這樣的困難仍有待觀察。(財富中文網) ????譯者:Charlie |
????To be sure, much of Japan's two decades of meager growth were also marked by promises to deregulate the economy. While some were kept, many were not. It remains to be seen what Abe might bring to the table, but it's a good sign that Japan recognizes reviving the economy doesn't rest only with an aggressive bond-buying program. A neighbor to follow ????Now that it's clear the U.S. is likely not falling into a Japan-style lost decade, Japan has signaled it wants to follow its Western neighbor and catch up with its growth strategies, said Jesper Koll, director of Japan equity research at J.P. Morgan, in a March report. ????Not that the U.S. doesn't have its own problems, but the Federal Reserve's aggressive bond-buying program has helped the country avoid another recession. "If nothing else, the regime change at the Bank of Japan indicates a newfound vigor to follow the Fed-led model of pro-growth stimulus focused in monetary policy." ????For instance, Japan has been eager to join negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade pact with the U.S. and other Pacific nations. Abe sees it as Japan's last chance to remain an economic power in Asia and shape the region's future. ????Japan is notorious for burdensome regulations over everything from retail to health to autos that shut out foreign competitors. The partnership would eliminate such barriers to trade -- something proponents and Abe say could turn Japan's economy around. ????Abe still faces opposition from farmers and other influential groups, however. And it remains to be seen if he could overcome that with his popularity. |