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安倍晉三新政出臺,日本經濟重振有望

安倍晉三新政出臺,日本經濟重振有望

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-04-15
日本曾多次試圖重振經濟,但投資者買賬的可能只有這一次。安倍晉三上臺后,提出了不同以往的目標和策略,給日本經濟重振帶來了希望。

????日本一直在盡量維持自己的全球第三大經濟體地位。15年來,日本的物價水平不斷下滑,讓它成為大蕭條以來唯一的一個長期處于通縮狀態的主要經濟體。多年來,日本政府一直在設法讓本國經濟回到曾經的發展軌道上,但這樣的努力一再讓投資者和公眾失望。

????這次,日本的情況有所不同,原因是有了“安倍經濟學(Abenomics)”,也就是日本新首相安倍晉三所采取的政策。上周,日本央行推出了一項大膽的方案,每個月將購買7,500億美元(4.6425萬億元人民幣)的債券。日本央行希望此舉能降低利率,進而促進個人和企業更多地貸款和消費。這樣做的另一個目的是降低日元匯率,以便陷入困境的日本公司能以較低的價格向其他地區出口產品和服務。

????當然,這樣做也面臨著一些重大的風險:日本政府現在的負債水平就已經極高。如果這項政策未能奏效,日本將進一步陷入債務困境。另一個風險因素是,它可能在全球范圍內引發資產泡沫。和日本已經較低的工資水平相比,如果物價上漲過快,民眾的生活質量就會普遍下降。

????此前日本曾數次放寬貨幣政策,但這次的措施史無前例,原因有三:

投資者相信局勢將出現反轉

????日本曾經多次試圖調整經濟,但相關舉措一直未能收到實效。銀行曾通過購買政府債券來壓低利率,但批評人士指出,這些措施過于畏首畏尾,而且讓人困惑,在其鼓舞之下提高借貸和支出水平的個人和企業并不多。

????這次,日本政府的計劃更為清晰——它說明了政府將怎樣提高通脹率以及將在什么時候讓通脹率達到2%。今后兩年,日本央行將使國內貨幣供應量增加一倍,途徑是購買債券和交易所交易基金(ETF)等較不尋常的證券。此外,日本央行還取消了購買長期證券的限制,意在向投資者表明它著眼于長期發展。

????美利堅大學(American University)教授、布魯克林研究所(Brookings Institution)高級研究員米雷婭?索利斯指出:“日本新一屆政府正在改變人們的預期。”所利斯是日本對外經濟政策專家,她認為這一點是和以往的根本區別。

????日本政府的目標確實很高。就連安倍也承認,在最終期限之前,也就是兩年時間內讓通脹率達到2%的目標很困難。不過,日本政府的透明度讓投資者知道今后會出現怎樣的情況,這有助于他們就借貸的時機和規模制定計劃。

他們不光是砸錢來解決問題

????安倍重振日本經濟的計劃并不只是購買債券。許多人都說日本經濟受到了過多的監管,大量法規限制了企業的經營活動,導致日本無法改善自身狀況。

????了解到這一點后,安倍開始實施結構性改革,其中就包括放松管制,也就是旨在推動經濟復蘇的“安倍經濟學”中所謂的“第三條”。雖然還在商討之中,但中心議題已經集中在幾個方面,包括放寬就業法規,從而降低裁員難度,徹底調整電力行業格局,放松對醫療和兒童保育記錄的管制以及普及互聯網。

????Japan has struggled to keep its standing as the world's third-largest economy. For the past 15 years, it has been plagued by falling prices, making it the only major economy to undergo prolonged deflation since the Great Depression. Over the years, the government has tried to reboot the economy to what it once was, only to disappoint investors and the public repeatedly.

????This time, it's different under "Abenomics," the term coined to describe policy prescriptions launched by Japan's new prime minister Shinzo Abe. Last week, the central bank announced an aggressive plan to buy $75 billion of bonds a month. The hope is that this would send interest rates lower, giving people and businesses an incentive to borrow and spend more. It's also hoped the move would weaken the yen, which would allow struggling manufacturers to sell their goods and services cheaply to the rest of the world.

????There are, of course, some serious risks: Japan's government debt is extremely high. If the program doesn't work, Japan would fall deeper in the money hole. There's also the risk that it could create asset bubbles around the world. And if prices rise too rapidly ahead of Japan's already low wages, it would make everyone worse off.

????Japan has embarked on easing monetary policies several times before, but the move this time is unprecedented. Here are three reasons why:

Investors believe in a turnaround

????Japan has repeatedly tried to fix its economy, but efforts never really went anywhere. The banks bought up government bonds and helped drive down interest rates, but critics say those plans were too timid and confusing. They didn't encourage many people and businesses to borrow and spend more.

????This time, officials have set out a clearer plan -- complete with when and how it expects to raise inflation to 2%. Over the next two years, the Bank of Japan expects to double the country's money supply by buying debt and more exotic securities like ETFs. What's more, the bank lifted a restriction for buying longer-term securities, which signals to investors that it's in it for the long haul.

????"The new leadership is shaking up expectations," says Mireya Solis, a professor at American University and senior fellow at Brookings Institution. Solis, an expert on Japan's foreign economic policies, adds that this makes all the difference.

????The goals are indeed ambitious. Even Abe acknowledged that hitting the 2% target before the deadline in two years could be difficult. Nonetheless, the level of clarity he provided lets investors know what to expect, which in turn, helps them plan when and how much they can borrow.

They're not just throwing money at the problem

????Abe's plan to reboot Japan's economy doesn't stop with a bond-buying bonanza. Many say its economy is over-regulated, and the bounty of rules limiting the flow of business has kept the country from better times.

????Knowing this, Abe has made structural reform, such as deregulation, the so-called "third row" of his "Abenomics" plan to revive the economy. While talks are ongoing, discussions have centered around loosening employment rules to make it easier to shed workers, overhauling electric power utilities, deregulating medical and child care records, and promoting use of the Internet.

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