????我趁午餐休息時間在健身俱樂部騎自行車鍛煉身體的時候，一邊踏著自行車，一邊重溫了本杰明?格雷厄姆的經典著作《聰明的投資者》（The Intelligent Investor）。上周，當我閱讀到其中的一段章節時，我不由得加快了踏自行車蹬板的速度。在1973年修訂版《聰明的投資者》【《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal ）專欄作家賈森?茨威格在該書中做了出色的注解】的第12章中，格雷厄姆指出，要想預測一家公司未來的業績， 與根據該公司連續幾個業績出色的季度來推斷相比，研究該公司幾年來的平均盈利情況可以證明具有更好的指導意義。格雷厄姆在書中寫道：“從前，分析師和投資者都相當重視一家公司在過去相當長一段時期內的平均盈利情況，他們認為這與單單考慮該公司最近一年的業績相比，能夠更好地了解該公司的盈利能力，”這是他由衷強烈支持的一個觀點。

????事實上，在《聰明的投資者》整部書中，格雷厄姆自始至終都認為，盈利大幅增長通常是由一些不可持續的特殊情況造成的。這些盈利激發因素涵蓋了從商業周期內的激增到推出突破性產品等各種情況。格雷厄姆認為，一個根本性的錯誤在于，僅僅依賴于根據過去一年的盈利而計算的市盈率，尤其是如果那些利潤激增到遠遠高于該公司過往盈利增長軌跡（即趨勢線）的話則更是如此。

????換句話說，根據“虛增的”盈利計算出來的市盈率會使股票看起來很便宜，而根據該公司過往盈利以及未來可能再次出現的盈利情況來計算，該股票股估值實際上是昂貴的。

????回味投資領域的智慧時，我馬上想到了近來蘋果（Apple）股票令投資者連連虧損的情況。華爾街是否因采取同樣這種存在問題的思維方式（格雷厄姆幾十年前就告誡我們要謹防這種思維方式）而對蘋果作出了錯誤的判斷呢？自從在去年9月21日漲至創紀錄高位705美元以來，蘋果股票已下跌至500美元，跌幅達29％，致使其市值蒸發掉1,840億美元。本周三，蘋果將發布其最受市場期待的2013財年第一季度業績報告（蘋果財年截止日為9月30日）。

????對于格雷厄姆的追隨者而言，問題是蘋果盈利的巨幅增長是否促使投資者放松了警惕，錯誤地認為漲到705美元的蘋果股票仍然很便宜。事實上，假設蘋果前所未有的巨額盈利已成為“新的常態，而且會繼續增長下去”，那么這只股票看起來也已達到合理的價格水平（意思是沒有多少進一步上漲的空間了）?！绷硪环矫?，根據投資圣人格雷厄姆認為非常重要的過往盈利歷史來判斷，蘋果股票看起來已極其昂貴。而這似乎正是市場現在在向我們傳遞的訊息。因此，讓我們來確定一下，當蘋果股票去年秋季達到最高價位時，格雷厄姆的盈利測試會顯示怎樣的結果。

????去年9月下旬，蘋果的市值為6,630億美元，達到美國有史以來最大的市值水平，令?？松梨冢‥xxon，當時市值為4,110億美元）、沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）及微軟（Microsoft，當時這兩家公司的市值均為2,300億美元）都相形見絀。不過，根據華爾街在衡量股票是便宜還是昂貴時最喜歡使用的指標——基于過去四個季度的盈利而計算出來的市盈率來判斷，蘋果股票看起來并不昂貴。在2012財年（截至2012年9月30日），蘋果的營收為417億美元，相比2011財年非凡增長了39.5％。雖然蘋果的市值非常高，但其盈利也是如此。根據2012財年的盈利情況，按照華爾街的標準采用最近四個季度的盈利情況來計算，蘋果的市盈率為適中的15.9倍。華爾街利用這個數字來吹捧蘋果股票非常便宜，絕對值得買入。

????While riding the exercise bike at my health club during lunchtime, I've been pedaling through Benjamin Graham's classic, The Intelligent Investor. Last week, I read a passage that made me pedal faster. In Chapter 12 of the updated 1973 edition (with excellent notes by Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig), Graham states that studying a company's average earnings over several years can prove a far better guide to its future performance than extrapolating future results from a run of exceptional quarters. "In former times," Graham writes, "analysts and investors paid considerable attention to average earnings over a fairly long period in the past. It was thought to give a better idea of the company's earning power than the results of the latest year alone," a view he heartily endorses.

????Indeed, throughout The Intelligent Investor, Graham argues that big spikes in earnings often arise from extraordinary circumstances that don't last. The catalysts are everything from a surge in the business cycle to the launch of breakthrough products. For Graham, a fundamental error is relying on a price-to-earnings ratio based on the past year's earnings alone, especially if those profits are spiking far above the company's past growth trajectory.

????In other words, a PE based on "inflated" profits can make a stock look cheap when it's really expensive based on what the company used to earn, and will probably earn again.

????Spinning through this field of wisdom, I immediately thought of the travails surrounding Apple (AAPL). Was Wall Street using the same faulty thinking to misjudge Apple that Graham warned against decades ago? Since reaching a record high of $705 on September 21, Apple's stock has tumbled 29% to $500, erasing $184 billion in market value. Apple will release its first quarter results (its fiscal year ends September 30) on Wednesday in the most eagerly-awaited announcement of the earnings season.

????For Graham followers, the question is whether Apple's gigantic jump to profits lulled investors into falsely believing its stock was still cheap at $705. In fact, it actually looked reasonably priced, assuming its unprecedented profits were the "new-normal-and-growing." On the other hand, it looked extremely expensive based on the past earnings history that the sage considers so important. That's the message the market seems to be delivering now. So let's determine what the Graham's earnings test would have shown when Apple stock reached at its pinnacle last fall.

????In late September, Apple's market cap stood at $663 billion, the largest in US history, dwarfing Exxon ($411 billion), Wal-Mart and Microsoft (both $230 billion). Still, the shares hardly looked pricey based on Wall Street's favorite metric for judging if a stock is cheap or dear, the PE ratio based on the last four quarters of earnings. For fiscal 2012 (ended September 30), Apple earned $41.7 billion, an extraordinary 39.5% rise from $29.9 billion in 2011. Though the market value was epic, so were the earnings. Based on those fiscal 2012 profits, Apple's PE, using the standard trailing four quarters of earnings, stood at a modest 15.9. Wall Street seized on that number to tout Apple as a great buy.