????美國詩人艾略特在那首著名的《荒原》中把四月稱為最殘忍的月份。不過對于那些把信心放在科技股上的投資者來說，剛剛過去的五月也令他們很不好過。一向仁慈的五月也成了一個殘忍的月份。究竟為什么，還沒有一個明確的原因。

????今年五月，科技板塊發生了一些奇怪的事。在沒有明確賣出信號的情況下，科技股似乎一下被股民棄之如敝履。首先是Facebook在上市頭幾日市值就蒸發了四分之一。Facebook的節節敗退也影響到了其他新近IPO的網絡股。自從Facebook上市后，Groupon的股票下跌了15%，收益相當依賴Facebook的社交游戲公司Zynga的股票更是下跌了29%。

????不過許多人都忽略了一點：股民們不僅對最近IPO的幾支網絡股反應冷淡，而且近來不少老牌藍籌股也出現了暴跌。Facebook的走勢雖慘，戴爾（Dell）、思科（Cisco）等歷史悠久的科技股上個月的表現也很慘淡。與此同時，其他大牌科技股也出現了意想不到的下跌。對此沒有什么單獨的原因可以解釋，可能只是股民們厭倦了科技板的增長。

????從五月初到上周二，納斯達克綜合指數已經下跌了7%，許多大盤股的表現更差。戴爾股價下跌23%，思科下跌19%，甲骨文（Oracle）下跌11%，惠普（HP）、微軟（Microsoft）和英特爾（Intel）都下跌了8%。IBM是少數幾個表現優于納斯達克綜指的科技公司之一，它只下跌了6%。

????當然，從一個月的交易表現很難推斷出太多，尤其是這個月，幾乎全球各地都面臨著經濟的不確定性。不過以往當股市其他板塊出現下跌時，這些藍籌科技股歷來被投資者當成避風港。但是現在當廣域市場面臨不確定性時，投資者們卻有了出售科技股的傾向。

????這究竟是怎么回事？罪魁禍首應該是全球IT支出的下降，歐洲金融危機和強勢美元應對此負主要責任。據研究機構高德納公司（Gartner）預計，今年全球企業和政府的IT支出有望達到3.75萬億美元。不過高德納公司最近把今年全球IT支出增幅的預測由之前的3.7%調低到2.5%。去年由于全球企業開始走出經濟危機的陰影，因而去年全球IT支出的增幅達到了6.8%。

????有些領域的表現很可能會超過其他板塊。比如電信設備領域今年有望增長6.9%，接近2011年的速度。另外全球在企業軟件和計算機硬件上的支出將分別增長5%和4.3%，增幅都遠遠小于去年。電信和IT服務有望增長1%左右，也遠低于去年的6%。

????April, as T.S. Eliot famously said, is the cruelest month. But for investors who put their faith in tech stocks, it's hard to look back on the past month and feel good. No, the merry month of May has been cruel. And there's no clear reason why.

????Something strange happened in the tech sector in May. Without a clear sell signal, tech stocks seemed to slip into some kind of investor oblivion. Exhibit A, of course, is the Facebook (FB) IPO, which in its first trading days has lost a quarter of the value that Wall Street's supposedly smartest underwriters thought it was worth. Facebook has pulled down other recent web IPOs as well: Groupon (GRPN) is down 15% since Facebook listed and Zynga (ZNGA), which relies in good part on Facebook for revenue, is down 29%.

????But overlooked in all the coverage about the cold shoulder investors have given to recent web IPOs is the slump that good old-fashioned, blue-chip tech giants have faced. As bad as Facebook has fared since its IPO, old-line tech brands like Dell (DELL) and Cisco (CSCO) have fared just as poorly this month. Meanwhile, others big-name tech stalwarts have also declined unexpectedly. And there's no single piece of bad news to explain it. It's just that investors seem to be weary of tech as a growth sector.

????As of Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite is down 7% so far in May. Many large-cap stocks have fared much worse. Dell is down 23%, Cisco is down 19%, and Oracle (ORCL) is down 11%. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) have all dropped 8%. IBM (IBM) is among the few tech giants that has outperformed the Nasdaq, falling a mere 6%.

????Of course, there is always a risk in extrapolating too much from a single month of stock trading, especially one that faced economic uncertainty in nearly every part of the world. But it used to be these same blue-chip tech names were seen as safe havens when other sectors were declining. Now, investors are inclined to sell tech when the broader market faces uncertainty.

????What gives? The biggest culprit seems to be a broad-based slowdown in the pace of spending on information technology, thanks to financial turmoil in Europe and a stronger dollar. Global IT spending by companies and governments is expected to total $3.75 trillion this year, according to research firm Gartner. But Gartner recently lowered its forecast for the pace of spending. Instead of expecting a 3.7% growth this year, the firm now expects IT spending to rise by only 2.5%. Last year, IT spending grew by 6.8% as companies straightened themselves out after the 2008 crisis.

????Some sectors are likely to fare better than others. Telecom equipment spending is expected to rise by 6.9%, close to the 2011 rate. Spending will rise 5% for enterprise software and 4.3% for computing hardware, both down significantly from last year. Telecom and IT services, however, are expected to grow by about 1%, well below the 6% rate for 2011.