????投資者素以黃金作為避險資產，可在歐洲債務危機不斷惡化之際，即使是黃金也失去了光澤。上周四早上金價跌到每盎司1,560.90美元，一個月來下跌了7%。

????這倒不是頭一回市場疲軟時金價下跌。金融危機最嚴重的時候，金價下跌了20%，此種現象是幾方面因素共同作用的結果：由于美國金融系統幾乎崩潰，投資者紛紛拋售股票，用套現所得買進美國國債；面臨在美投資的虧損，機構投資者賣出海外資產，以滿足追加保證金的要求或經紀合同的規定；最后，隨著銀行收緊貸款限制，資金變得緊缺。

????所有這些都推高了美元的實際價值，由于黃金是按美元計價的，美元貶值通常會引發黃金價格的上漲——因為對持有其他貨幣的買家來說，黃金變得更貴了。反之亦然。

????最近幾個月來，美元相對于歐元迅速升值，從而壓低了金價。由于希臘可能退出歐元區，該貨幣聯盟的危機愈演愈烈，投資者紛紛拋棄歐元，涌入美國或德國國債市場，以此作為安全港。上周三，受獨立評級機構伊根-瓊斯不到一個月內第三次下調西班牙主權信用評級的影響，歐元兌美元匯率創下了近兩年來的新低。

????但是，金價承受的壓力可能緩解。匯豐證券大宗商品首席分析師詹姆斯?斯蒂爾指出，過去一年來，決定金價走勢的是全球最大兩場金融災難的演化。歐洲的金融亂局壓低了金價，而美國的債務困境則曾推動黃金價格創下新高。去年9月，美國國會削減財政赤字的談判陷入僵局，美國主權信用評級也應此首次遭到下調，每盎司黃金價格應聲突破了1,900美元。

????如果歷史可以為鑒，金價今年下半年有望反彈。在美國，國會議員們預計將再次忙于拿出一套削減財政赤字的方案，否則規模數萬億的加稅與削減開支計劃將會自動生效。美國國會預算辦公室已經警告說，若出現這種情況，2013年上半年美國經濟將萎縮1.3%. 這些問題可能會在股票和其他金融資產上投下陰影，迫使投資者買入黃金。

????至少在今后幾個月里，黃金將再度卷入全球最嚴重的債務災難。

????譯者：小宇

????Investors have long found safety in gold, but the precious metal has been losing luster as Europe's ongoing debt crisis intensifies. As of Thursday morning, gold was down 7% this month, at $1,560.90 an ounce.

????This isn't the first time gold has fallen when markets turn shaky. During the depths of the global financial crisis, the metal dropped by 20%. A few factors drove the decline: As the U.S. financial system nearly collapsed, investors took their money out of stocks and poured them into U.S. Treasuries. And institutional investors, faced with losses on U.S. investments, liquidated overseas assets to meet margin calls or broker agreements. Finally, as banks clamped down on lending, money became scarce.

????All that helped drive up the value of the greenback. Because gold is priced in dollars, the currency's decline typically leads to a rise in the metal's value because gold becomes more expensive for buyers who hold other currencies. And vice versa.

????In recent months, the rapidly rising dollar against the euro has brought down gold. As the euro zone crisis turns from bad to worse with Greece's possible exit from the monetary union, investors have been leaving the euro and flocking to safety in Treasuries and German bunds. On Wednesday, the euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in almost two years after Egan-Jones Ratings cut Spain's credit rating for the third time in less than a month.

????But pressure on gold could ease up some. For the past year, it has been entangled in the world's biggest fiscal woes, says James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC Securities. While Europe's financial mess has driven gold downward, America's debt problems have helped boost gold to record highs. It soared past $1,900 an ounce by last September, shortly after the U.S. suffered its first-ever debt downgrade as Congress stalled on talks to reduce the national deficit.

????If the past repeats itself, gold could see a rebound later this year. Lawmakers are expected to scramble once again on a deficit reduction plan or else trillions of dollars in looming tax hikes and spending cuts will automatically kick in. The Congressional Budget Office has warned the economy could contract by 1.3% during the first half of 2013. These issues threaten to cast a shadow over equities and other financial assets, and push investors into bullion.

????For at least the next several months, gold will surely be caught in the middle of the world's big debt fiascos.