資深人士預言風險投資黃金時代即將到來
????考夫曼基金會(Kauffman Foundation)最近宣稱,風投模式已死。合廣投資(Union Square)的費雷德?威爾遜也說,風投模式可供使用的資金太多,因此無法成功。還有人選取了超過25個例子來證明風投模式已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)。羅森投資公司(Sevin Rosen)在上世紀九十年代以個人電腦和電信硬件投資著稱,但它在2006年放棄了一只新基金,退還投資,標志著這一死亡倒計時的開始。 ????過去十年的平均風投回報確實很糟。康橋咨詢公司(Cambridge Associates)2010年12月截止的10年累計美國風投回報指數(shù)變?yōu)樨撝担磕?2.0%),成為當時的頭條新聞。該指數(shù)在2011年12月截止的10年間又猛增到每年3.3%,同時期納斯達克指數(shù)平均回報每年2.9%。但是,考慮到風投投資的流動性不佳,因為投資者應(yīng)該得到比公開市場投資高出3%-5%的溢價。 ????首先,我的一點看法:這些都是馬后炮,提供有益信息但沒有預測力。在“非理性繁榮”爆發(fā)的1998-2000年,超過2,000億美元的資本涌入美國風投市場,此前該市場每年不過吸收50-100億美元。這筆錢導致市場上資金嚴重供過于求,經(jīng)過很久才逐漸消失。 |
????The venture capital model is dead, proclaimed the Kauffman Foundation recently. Too much available money for the VC model to succeed added Union Square's Fred Wilson. Another details 25+ stories on why the VC model is broken. Sevin Rosen, a firm known for PC and telecom hardware investments in the 1990s, started this death watch in 2006, when it aborted closing a new fund. ????Average VC returns for the last ten years do stink. Cambridge Associates made headlines when its 10-year cumulative U.S. VC return index went negative at (2.0%)/year in December 2010. The index popped up to 3.3%/year for the decade through December 2011. Over the same period the NASDAQ returned 2.9%/year. But, given the illiquid nature of VC investments, investors deserve a 3% - 5% premium, at least, over public markets. ????First, a bit of perspective: These are rear-view-mirror analyses, informative but not predictive. In the '98-'00 burst of "irrational exuberance," over $200 billion of capital flooded into the U.S. venture market, which had previously absorbed $5-$10 billion per year. This money put a huge supply overhang on the market that has taken time to disappear. |
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