????股市過于平靜了？

????今年以來多數時間，股市呈現攀升態勢，投資者看來也越來越不擔心入市風險，但近期卻出現了一些震蕩。僅周二，波動率指數（VIX）就跌去了5%，回落到18.10。由于VIX指數跟蹤的是有多少人在購買對沖市場下跌風險的工具，因此有時也被稱為恐慌指數。周二的下跌是VIX指數近期跌勢的延續，過去6個月該指數已經跌去了近30%，更別提去年夏季該指數還在45左右，又或者金融危機期間，該指數還曾創下了接近90的歷史高點。

????但經常被引用的VIX指數現貨價只是衡量該指數的方式之一，現貨交易甚至都不那么活躍。金融危機爆發以來，VIX市場顯著擴張，如今交易員根據對VIX指數未來1-6個月的判斷買賣期貨合約（當然也有7、8個月的合約，但交易量不大）。回到去年11月，當時市場預計未來六個月波動性將降低。隨后的市場表現也的確也如此。但今年，這種關系已經反轉。3月中旬，即便是在現貨價格下跌之際，VIX指數現貨價與投資者預測的6個月后水平的差值仍然創下了歷史新高。近來兩者之間的差值已有所收窄，但仍是金融危機以來平均值的三倍，VIX期貨市場顯示今年晚些時候股市波動率將上升33%（通常在股市下跌時，市場波動率會上升）。

????“投資者認為，接下來一年情況惡化的概率很大，”晨星（Morningstar）研究員保爾?賈斯泰斯表示。

????這個邏輯中存在的問題是，如果投資者認為未來6個月股市將下跌，為何什么不趁現在就賣出呢？大宗商品的期貨價格往往高于現貨價格。眾所周知，隨著供應減少，冬季的玉米價格通常會上漲。期貨價格反映了的就是這個趨勢。夏季的油價也是這個道理，因為夏季的汽油需求上升。交易員們甚至給期貨市場的這種上漲傾向起了個名字，叫做“期貨溢價”。但期貨溢價或超期貨溢價（有些人將VIX指數的差值稱為期貨溢價或超期貨溢價）不應出現在股市中。（至少我們是這么想的，）未來情況應該已經體現在市場價格中。鑒于今年股市將有兩位數增長，投資者似乎根本沒有考慮未來的麻煩。

????那么，當前的情況是怎么回事？有些人說，VIX市場可能發出了錯誤的負面信號。跟蹤VIX指數的交易所買賣票據（exchange traded note，類似于交易所交易基金，但不購買股票）有30多種。過去一年發行了十多只這樣的基金。這些基金很多只關注期限較長的期貨合約。有些市場觀察人士稱，這些新基金正在將更多資金送入VIX市場，從而推高了價格。

????另一種解釋是，VIX市場原本就是不可理喻。“理論上，不應該存在期貨溢價，但VIX期貨是衍生品的衍生品，”基金管理公司Portfolio的創始人、《金錢之弊》（Rigged Money）一書的作者李?蒙森說。“肯定會出現差幅。”蒙森說，即使我們并不能真正理解為什么會出現這種差幅，也不能忽視它們。誠然，投資者似乎有很多理由擔憂未來：比如，就業市場不景氣、歐洲問題以及美聯儲（fed）可能實行進一步的量化寬松政策等等，不一而足。為什么他們現在不擔心這些因素？這是個好問題，但這并不意味著無需擔憂。

????譯者：早稻米

????Is the market too calm?

????Despite some recent bumps, shares have mostly raced up this year, and investors seem to be getting less and less worried about risking their money in stocks. The VIX (VIX), which is sometimes called the fear index because it tracks how many people are buying insurance against a market drop, fell 5% on Tuesday alone to 18.10. That capped a big recent drop for the index, which is down nearly 30% in the past six months, not to mention last summer when the VIX was up in the mid-40s, or during the financial crisis when it hit an all-time high of nearly 90.

????But the spot price for the VIX, which is what is most often quoted, is just one way to measure the index, and not even the one that is actively traded. The market for the VIX has grown considerably since the financial crisis, and traders now buy and sell futures contracts based on where they think the index will be in one month to six months out. (There are seven and eight month contracts, but they don't get much action.) Back in November, the market was predicting that volatility would drop during the next six months. It did. This year, though, that relationship has reversed. In mid-March, even as the spot price was falling, the difference between where the VIX was and how much higher investors thought it would be in six months hit an all-time high. The gap has narrowed recently, but it's still three times as large as it has been on average since the financial crisis, with the VIX futures market predicting market volatility, which usually rises when the market falls, will jump 33% later this year.

????"Investors are saying over the course of the next year there's a pretty good chance something bad will happen," says Paul Justice, a researcher at Morningstar.

????The problem with that logic is that if investors think there is going to be a dip in the market in the next six months, why wouldn't they just sell now. It's normal in commodities markets for futures prices to be higher than spot prices. Everyone knows that corn will typically be more expensive in the winter when there is less of it available. Future prices reflect that. The same things goes for oil prices in the summer, when gas is in higher demand. Traders even have a name for that upward bias in futures markets - contango. But contango, or even super contango, which is what some people are calling the current state of the VIX, shouldn't happen with stocks. The future is supposed to be priced into the market, at least our best guess of it. And with the market headed for a double-digit gain this year, investors seem far from pricing in trouble ahead.

????So what's going on? Some say the VIX market could be sending a false negative. There are more than 30 exchange traded notes (like ETFs but not for stocks) that track the VIX. More than a dozen of those funds have launched in the past year. Many of these funds only focus on longer dated futures contracts. Some market watchers say that these new funds are driving more money into the VIX market, and sending prices up.

????Another explanation is that the VIX market is just weird. "Theoretically, you shouldn't get contango, but with VIX futures what we are talking about is a derivative of a derivative," says Lee Munson, founder of asset management firm Portfolio, and author of the book Rigged Money. "You are bound to get imbalances." And Munson says those imbalances shouldn't necessarily be ignored, even if we don't truly understand why they would occur. Indeed, there seems to be a number of reasons investors would be worried about the future - the recent job market stumble, Europe, and the possibility of more quantitative easing from the fed, to name a few. Why they aren't worried about that stuff right now is a valid question, but it doesn't mean that there isn't reason to worry.