????如果私營(yíng)投資者繼續(xù)回避歐洲主權(quán)債券投資，歐洲央行的這種應(yīng)急行為可能需要常態(tài)化。過(guò)早歐洲央行過(guò)早抽身，將可能導(dǎo)致整個(gè)體系崩潰，迫使當(dāng)局采取進(jìn)行新一輪的救助行動(dòng)。屆時(shí)，歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們希望最近擴(kuò)容后的歐洲救助基金已經(jīng)獲得批準(zhǔn)，可以動(dòng)用約5,000-7,500億歐元的資金為歐債流拍提供支撐，并將利率維持在合理水平。

????但在此之前，人們普遍相信葡萄牙（可能還有愛(ài)爾蘭）將尋求某種形式的減債，可能導(dǎo)致整個(gè)體系重陷混亂。葡萄牙是交易員們密切關(guān)注的一個(gè)國(guó)家。由于擔(dān)心不遠(yuǎn)的將來(lái)，葡萄牙可能爆發(fā)某種形式的信貸事件，葡萄牙債券和CDS的交易都已降至極低水平。歐債交易商們告訴《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune），他們現(xiàn)在已不做主權(quán)債券，轉(zhuǎn)而專(zhuān)注于歐洲公司債，因?yàn)樵诠緜兴麄儾粫?huì)被劃為二等公民。如果這種趨勢(shì)得以延續(xù)，葡萄牙政府在籌措資金時(shí)將遇到大麻煩，很多人預(yù)計(jì)新一輪的大規(guī)模救助將不可避免。

????譯者：早稻米

????This once extraordinary action made on behalf of the ECB may need to be made permanent if private investors continue to shy away from European sovereigns. Pulling out prematurely could cause the system to collapse, forcing another round of bailouts. By that time, European leaders hope to have the newly enlarged European bailout fund authorized and ready for use with around 500 to 750 billion euros to backstop any possible future failed auctions and to keep interest rates at reasonable levels.

????But before then, it is largely believed that Portugal and possibly Ireland will try and get some sort of haircut on their debt, throwing the system back into turmoil. Portugal is the one country traders are watching intently. Trading in Portuguese bonds and CDS has dried up on anticipation of some sort of credit event rumbling the nation in the near future. European bond traders tell Fortune they are forgoing sovereign debt and focusing on the nation's corporate bonds where they know they won't be regulated to second-class status. If this continues, Portugal's government will need some serious help when it goes out to raise cash, leading to what many believe would be another nasty bailout.