????專家和政界都將歐元危機歸咎于那些違反預算條例、恣意揮霍的國家，因為預算條例正是歐元這個單一貨幣的重要支柱。如果西班牙、意大利和希臘能壓縮令人瞠目的預算赤字，遏制如山般債務的增長，專家們相信歐元區經濟仍能恢復繁榮。因此，迄今提出的一些解決方案都是圍繞“財政整合”進行，即實施新的法規，賦予歐盟（European Union）限制成員國支出和負債的廣泛權力，同時出臺嚴厲的處罰措施，確保歐元區成員國無人敢逾越雷池。

????這就是2011年12月份德國總理默克爾和法國總統薩科齊舉行峰會期間所商談草案的核心。本周一，這兩位領導人又在柏林會晤，重申將制定針對歐元區17個成員國的“財政協議”，并在3月1日前簽署嚴厲的新條例和處罰措施。

????然而，這個計劃不會奏效。歐洲的主要問題并不是成員國的債務和赤字規模。事實上，目前歐元區的債務/GDP比率還不到90%，數字雖高，但明顯低于美國的100%，更別提日本的227%。

????真正的問題在于經濟增長：歐元區弱國如果繼續接受歐元的桎梏，就難以實現增長。意大利或希臘就無法取得足夠的稅收收入來壓縮預算赤字、減輕債務負擔，也不能獲得足夠的出口額來創造新的就業機會。換言之，經濟體制的國家無力承擔美國這樣的經濟增長國家所能夠應對的財政壓力。

核心是競爭

????歐洲弱國為什么不能實現經濟增長？原因很簡單：它們的經濟在國際市場上缺乏競爭力，因為它們被超高估的貨幣所拖累，而這些國家以及它們強大的北方鄰國似乎執意要保留這個貨幣。要理解為什么歐元的弊病，最簡單的辦法就是問一問這些陷入困境的國家假如恢復本國貨幣，將會怎樣？恢復本國貨幣后，貨幣匯率將由市場決定，而不是由外界強加。

????如果全球消費者和投資者用美元、日元對希臘或意大利的商品和作物進行投票，新的德拉克馬或里拉的匯率可能會比當前的歐元低30%。結論：全球市場之所以不購買這些國家以歐元計價的商品，是因為這些深陷危機的國家匯率被高估了40%以上。

????帶著這樣的鐐銬，希臘、葡萄牙或西班牙根本沒有競爭力，也很難實現經濟增長。“財政協議”也無法改變市場的取向。

????讓歐元區弱國陷于不利境地的是一個有點學究氣但非常重要的指標，即單位勞動力成本，比如生產一輛汽車、一臺個人電腦或一臺反鏟挖土機的勞動力成本。（勞動力通常占到總費用的70%）。假設在西班牙需要3個工人花1個小時來生產一個小裝置，在德國2個工人就夠了，即德國經濟的生產率要高得多。雖然如此，西班牙工人的工資仍然達到了德國工人的90%。因此，在西班牙生產的這個小裝置其成本至少要比德國生產的高出25%。

????Pundits and politicians are blaming the euro's crisis on profligate nations that violated the budget rules designed as a pillar of the single currency. If Spain, Italy and Greece could shrink their yawning budget deficits and halt the rise in their mountainous debt, the experts argue, prosperity would return to the eurozone. Hence, the proposed solutions are all about "fiscal integration," imposing new regulations that would give the European Union broad authority to impose spending and borrowing limits in the member states -- with penalties so strict that no eurozone member could stray.

????That's the basis of the blueprint negotiated at a December summit between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. On Monday, the two leaders met in Berlin to renew their pledge to present a "fiscal compact" for the 17 eurozone countries, promising a new set of stiff rules and penalties by March 1.

????Their master plan won't work. Europe's principal problem isn't the size of its members' debt and deficits. In fact, the eurozone's debt to GDP ratio now stands at less than 90%, a big number, but well below the U.S. level of 100%, not to mention Japan's 227% ratio.

????The real rub is growth: The weak eurozone nations can barely grow as long as they remain in harnessed to the euro. As a result, an Italy or Greece can't generate the tax revenues to shrink those deficits, or lower their debt burden, nor can they generate the exports needed to create new jobs. In other words, the fiscal burdens that a "growth" nation such as the U.S. can handle prove insurmountable for countries that can't grow.

Competition at the core

????Why can't Europe's weaklings grow? The reason is basic: Their economies are uncompetitive on world markets so long as they're stuck with an extremely over-valued currency that they and their powerful northern neighbors seem determined to preserve. The easiest way to understand why the euro isn't working is to ask what would happen if the ailing nations restored their own currencies, so that their value was established by the market, instead of imposed upon them.

????If the world's consumers and investors voted with their dollars and yen for Greek or Italian products and plants, a new Drachma or Lira would be worth perhaps 30% less than the current euro. Conclusion: By shunning their goods at these prices, the global market is telling us that the stricken countries' currencies are overvalued by more than 40%.

????A Greece, Portugal, or Spain simply can't compete, or grow, with that handicap. A "fiscal compact" will not change the market's verdict.

????What's pummeling weaklings is a wonkish but crucial number called "unit labor costs." It refers to the labor cost of making one car, PC or backhoe. (Labor typically accounts for 70% of total expense.) Let's say it takes three workers an hour to make a widget in Spain, and two workers can do the same job in Germany, meaning that the German economy is a lot more productive. Nevertheless, the Spanish workers earn 90% of German wages. The Spanish widget is going to cost at least 25% more than the German model.