中國需求放緩打壓國際大宗商品價格
????多倫多市場研究機構CIBC World markets的大宗商品分析師彼得?布坎南說:“中國占全球銅需求超過40%,其他基礎金屬的需求占比也相當高。我認為未來一兩年下行風險可能高于上行風險?!?/p> ????布坎南稱,金屬價格下跌“肯定會直接改善很多公司的盈利狀況”。他說,中國是這個等式中重要的組成部分,但歐洲經濟狀況也同樣重要。 ????蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)駐倫敦的大宗商品分析師尼高斯?卡瓦利斯認為,金屬拋盤更多是投機性賣盤,而不是供求基本面的問題。 ????他說,電纜電線等銅下游制造商今年早些時候還在苦苦掙扎,勉強度日??ㄍ呃拐f:“毫無疑問,銅密集型行業現在的狀況已經要好很多了。” ????但他警告稱,隨著供應狀況趨緊,2012年銅價可能會出現反彈。他說:“我們預計中國經濟將軟著陸?!?/p> |
????"China accounts for over 40% of global copper demand and a substantial proportion of other base metals as well," says Peter Buchanan, a commodities analyst at CIBC World markets in Toronto. "In the next year or two I think there is probably more downside risk than upside." ????Buchanan notes that a fall in metals prices "would certainly help the earnings of a large number of companies directly." China is an important part of the equation, but so is what happens in the European economy, Buchanan says. ????Nikos Kavalis, a commodity analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, says he believes the selloff in metals was more about speculators selling commodities rather than a fundamental issue of supply and demand. ????He says that manufacturers that use copper such as cable and wire makers were struggling to survive earlier in the year. 'Without a doubt, copper-intensive industries have it much better right now," Kavalis says. ????He warns, however, that he is expecting a rebound in copper prices in 2012 as the supply situation tightens. "We're expecting a soft landing in China," he says. |