????由于亞洲重要的出口市場——?dú)W美地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩致使出口需求受抑，亞洲表現(xiàn)最好的幾個經(jīng)濟(jì)體最近幾個月以來也感受到了寒意。但亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫也并不全然是壞消息：未來幾個月石油、銅等主要大宗商品的價格可能會下跌，將幫助一大批美國公司改善盈利數(shù)據(jù)。

????世界銀行（World Bank）上月末發(fā)布對亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的最新預(yù)期時表示，今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)計將降至9.1%，低于2010年的10.6%。該行預(yù)計接下來經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將繼續(xù)下滑，2012年為8.4%，隨后幾年也將維持這樣的水平。

????“中國的原材料需求量很大，中國需求下降、對華出口減少對美國公司是個好消息，”武漢大學(xué)（Wuhan University）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家雷晨（音譯）說：“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，這意味著我們將減少石油、銅和鐵礦石等大宗商品的進(jìn)口。大宗商品的市場價格將繼續(xù)下行。”

????但具體跌幅是多大，目前尚無定論。馬薩諸塞州溫徹斯特原油研究機(jī)構(gòu)戰(zhàn)略能源用經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Strategic Energy and Economic Research）的總裁邁克爾?林奇預(yù)計到明年夏季原油價格將下跌約20%，國際市場油價降至85美元/桶，而美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格將降至75美元/桶。油價目前為96美元/桶。

????“我們預(yù)計供應(yīng)狀況將發(fā)生改變，包括巴西石油供應(yīng)將增加，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量增加，以及伊拉克和利比亞的前景看好，”林奇表示。“結(jié)合亞洲需求前景疲弱因素，石油市場將走軟。”

????林奇稱，不僅美國公司將從油價下跌中獲益，消費(fèi)者也能節(jié)約更多的錢，惠及全美零售行業(yè)。

????下面這個例子可以說明大宗商品價格對美國大型公司盈利的影響之大。福特汽車（Ford Motor）今年10月報告稱，由于公司對未來階段的大宗商品套期保值進(jìn)行了估值調(diào)整，導(dǎo)致第三季度稅前營運(yùn)利潤減少3.50億美元。這些套期保值原本是為了保護(hù)福特免遭大宗商品價格上漲的沖擊；但事實上，目前大宗商品的價格下跌了。但在未來的季度中，福特汽車應(yīng)能受益于大宗商品價格的普遍下跌。

????銅是另一個見證中國需求放緩的大宗商品市場，美國制造公司也將受益于此。今年迄今，銅價已經(jīng)下跌了28%，最近幾個月跌幅尤其顯著。2010年12月銅價曾達(dá)到10,190美元/噸的高點(diǎn)，今年10月一度低至 6,600美元，目前略有反彈。

????Asia's top-performing economies have suffered in recent months as a slowdown in Europe and stalled growth in the United States hobbled key export markets. But there may be one silver-lining to Asia's hardship: prices for key commodities like oil and copper are likely to decline in coming months, helping the bottom line at many U.S. companies.

????When the World Bank released its latest projection for the Asian economy late last month, it said that growth in China is expected to decline to 9.1% this year, down from 10.6% in 2010. Growth is expected to continue to fall, reaching 8.4% in 2012 and stay at that level for the next several years, the bank said.

????"Because China has such a high demand for raw materials, when exports from China decline, that will be good news for U.S. companies," says Lei Chen, an economist at Wuhan University. "The growth rate in China is slowing down and that means we will be importing less commodities like oil, copper and iron ore. Prices will continue to come down."

????By how much is still up for debate. Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a Winchester, Mass.-based petroleum research firm, predicts the price of crude oil could fall by about 20% by next summer, bring the price of a barrel of oil down to around $85 on world markets and $75 for WTI crude in the U.S. It's now at $96.

????"What we're seeing is a change in the supply situation, with Brazilian oil coming up, shale oil in the U.S. growing and Iraq and Libya looking very positive," Lynch says. "Combined with the bearish demand outlook from Asia, that is going to leave the market on the weak side."

????Not only will U.S. firms benefits from lower energy costs, Lynch says, but consumers will have more cash in their pockets thanks to lower gas prices, benefitting retailers across the country.

????As an example of how much commodity prices affect profits at big U.S. companies, Ford Motor (F) reported in October that pre-tax operating profit was reduced by $350 million in the third quarter because of adjustments to commodity hedges for future periods. The hedges would have protected Ford if commodity prices went up; instead they went down. But the company should benefit in future quarters from the cheaper commodity prices prevailing now.

????Copper is another area where a slowdown in China will help U.S. manufacturing firms. Copper prices are down 28% so far this year, falling dramatically in the last couple of months. The metal reached a high of $10,190 a ton in December 2010 and fell to $6,600 in October, from where it has rebounded marginally.