黃金為何光芒不再
????金價(jià)連續(xù)第十一年上漲,成就了這一黃色金屬跨時(shí)最長(zhǎng)的一輪漲勢(shì)。而且,在2011年的大多數(shù)時(shí)間里,金價(jià)攀升的勢(shì)頭似乎也所向披靡——9月份更是突破了1,900美元/盎司,創(chuàng)下高點(diǎn)。 ????但最近幾個(gè)月,很多知名投資者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始拋售所持頭寸,這表明黃金的輝煌歲月可能即將終結(jié)。 ????億萬(wàn)富翁投資人喬治?索羅斯曾經(jīng)將黃金稱(chēng)為“終極泡沫”,他早在5月份就減持了黃金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)。對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理、長(zhǎng)期看多黃金人士約翰?保爾森硬挺了幾個(gè)月,第三季度也終于將黃金倉(cāng)位削減了1/3。 ????而且就在上周,曾正確預(yù)測(cè)2008年大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家丹尼斯?加特曼也將所持黃金悉數(shù)售罄。他強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō),他并不看跌黃金,但這一貴金屬已不完全是很多投資者所熟悉的避風(fēng)港了。 ????誠(chéng)然,黃金市場(chǎng)中還沒(méi)有什么人在高叫“熊來(lái)了”。但即便是最看漲的投資者也承認(rèn)市場(chǎng)人氣已發(fā)生了顯著變化。 ????上一次金價(jià)大跌是在1980年,當(dāng)時(shí)金價(jià)在一年內(nèi)跌去了60%以上。直到二十年后的2000年,投資者才開(kāi)始看到正向回報(bào)。難道黃金正在重返熊市嗎? ????自9月份見(jiàn)頂以來(lái),金價(jià)已跌去了約15%。從技術(shù)角度而言,下跌20%即證明熊市開(kāi)始。如今大宗商品投資市場(chǎng)變幻莫測(cè),誰(shuí)也說(shuō)不準(zhǔn)價(jià)格可能跌多少,但黃金距離正式進(jìn)入熊市區(qū)間已不太遠(yuǎn)了。 ????以下四個(gè)跡象表明黃金可能正在褪去其金燦燦的誘人光芒: 美國(guó)國(guó)債比黃金更受投資者寵愛(ài) ????世界可能崩潰,但黃金的價(jià)值將永存。大多數(shù)人秉持的這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直在推動(dòng)金價(jià)上漲。與其他大宗商品不同,黃金以?xún)?nèi)在價(jià)值著稱(chēng),因?yàn)辄S金鮮有實(shí)際用途。黃金一直被視為是在股市下跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩時(shí)期的避風(fēng)港。 ????但眼下歐洲官員正全力應(yīng)付債務(wù)危機(jī),極力避免墮入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,投資者事實(shí)上已經(jīng)開(kāi)始撤出黃金了。每日金價(jià)的劇烈波動(dòng)已促使投資者尋找更安全的避風(fēng)港,他們已經(jīng)找到了美國(guó)國(guó)債。頗具諷刺意味的是,4個(gè)月前標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)剛剛下調(diào)了美國(guó)完美的AAA信用評(píng)級(jí)。 |
????For the 11th year in a row, gold prices have rallied, making this one of the longest winning streaks for the yellow metal. And for most of 2011, it seemed like nothing could stop prices from climbing -- gold prices peaked in September at more than $1,900 an ounce. ????But in recent months, many high-profile investors have sold their positions, suggesting that gold's glory days could be coming to an end. ????Billionaire investor George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble," cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) as early as May. Hedge fund manager and long-time gold bull John Paulson held tight for a few months, but eventually slashed his gold holdings by a third during the third quarter. ????And last week, economist Dennis Gartman, who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008, sold off the last of his bullion. He stresses that he isn't bearish on gold, but thinks the precious metal isn't exactly the safe haven that many investors have come to know it. ????Admittedly, few are screaming bear in the gold market. But even the most bullish investors admit sentiments have changed in a noticeable way. ????The last time gold went bust was in 1980, when prices dropped more than 60% in a single year. It wasn't until 20 years later, in 2000, that investors saw positive returns. Is gold returning to a bear market? ????Since its September peak, gold has since lost about 15% of its value. Technically, it takes a 20% decline for a bear market to transpire. It's anyone's guess where price may fall in the murky world of commodities investing, but the precious metal doesn't have far to go before it formally enters bearish territory. ????Here are four signs that suggest gold may be losing its glitter: U.S. Treasuries get more love than gold ????The world could nearly collapse, but the value of gold will remain. That popular notion has long fueled the rise of the yellow metal. Unlike other commodities, gold is known for its intrinsic value since there are few practical uses for it. And yet, it has been viewed as a safe haven from slumping stock markets and slow growth. ????But at a time when European officials struggle with debt woes and slip closer to a recession, investors have actually been scurrying away from gold. Daily price swings have sent investors looking for an even safer bet, and they've found it in U.S. Treasuries. Ironically enough, this comes only four months after Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. of its stellar triple-A rating. |