債務危機:歐洲偷師美國,結構存在缺陷
????市場本來期待上周三歐洲能給出一個方案,解決曠日持久的歐洲主權債務危機。但歐洲人非但沒能做到這一點,反倒給市場注入了更多的不確定性。結果將是市場繼續震蕩,可能給世界經濟帶來長期的沖擊。 ????歐元區當前這些問題的解決之道并非什么秘密——如何讓歐洲人參與進來正是問題所在?,F在的關鍵是要重振對歐洲債市的信心,防止危機從歐元區的邊緣小國擴散至歐元區核心經濟體。歐洲人都知道,要重振信心,,他們的救助基金——歐洲金融穩定安排(European Financial Stability Facility, 簡稱EFSF)的規模和范圍必須大幅擴大。 ????EFSF擴容事宜今夏獲準,經過歐元區所有17個成員國國會的艱難投票表決后本月終于生效。問題在于以4,400億歐元的規模,擴容后的基金還是沒有足夠的火力來安撫市場、重振投資者信心。4,400億歐元是應對希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭潛在違約風險的“大火箭筒”。但如今危機已擴散至經濟規模大得多的西班牙和意大利,因此需要一個更大的火箭筒。 ????如何實現EFSF再次擴容是最讓歐洲領導人頭疼的事情。歐元區所有17個成員國剛剛投票通過首次擴容事宜,要讓所有成員國再次同意向救助基金注入更多資金幾乎是不可能完成的任務。讓它們同意一個約2萬億歐元的救助基金,無異于要說服法國總統在國宴上使用卡夫(Kraft)單獨包裝的片狀奶酪產品一樣——許多人認為考慮到意大利和西班牙的違約可能,救助基金規模需達到約2萬億歐元。 權宜之計:借力民間 ????因此,歐洲人決定通過借力民間、提升救助基金的效力,而不是繼續增加基金本金。那么,如何借力就成為了這場曠日持久、紛紛擾擾的討論中的最新議題。上周三針對這個問題公布了一份非常粗糙的草案公報。公報列出了兩種選擇,他們相信通過這兩種方式,無需成員國出資,就可以提高救助基金的影響力。 ????也許歐洲人不愿意承認,但他們提出的這兩項舉債策略看起來很像2008、2009年美國次貸危機最嚴重時美國制定的兩項計劃,即定期資產抵押證券貸款工具(Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, 簡稱TALF)和公私合作投資計劃(Public-Private Investment Program, 簡稱PPIP)。還記得嗎? |
????The big solution to Europe's long-running sovereign debt crisis was supposed to be unveiled today. But instead of a solution, the Europeans have managed to give the markets another dose of uncertainty. The result will be continued market volatility that threatens to bring about long-lasting damage to the world economy. ????The solution to the euro zone's current problems is no secret – it's getting the Europeans onboard that's been the problem. The key now is to restore confidence in their debt market to prevent contagion spreading from the small peripheral countries to the core euro zone economies. To restore that confidence, they know that their bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), needs to be much bigger in size and scope. ????The expansion of the EFSF was approved in the summer and finally came into force this month following agonizing votes in all 17 euro zone member parliaments. Trouble is, at 440 billion euros, the newly expanded fund still doesn't have enough firepower to quell the markets and restore investor confidence. That figure was the "big bazooka" number in dealing with potential defaults in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. But the crisis has since spread to Spain and Italy, which have much larger economies, and therefore requires a much larger bazooka. ????How to expand the EFSF again is at the heart of the troubles vexing European leaders. Getting all 17 members to agree again to put more capital into the fund after they just voted on an expansion is seen as a near impossibility. Getting them to agree to a bailout fund of around 2 trillion euros, which many believe is the new magic number after factoring in possible defaults in Italy and Spain, would be like convincing the president of France to serve Kraft singles for a cheese course at a state dinner. A Band-Aid fix: Leverage ????So instead of augmenting the principle of the bailout fund, the Europeans have decided to artificially inflate the number by levering it up. How they propose to do this is the newest controversy in this long-running drama. A very rough draft communiqué on the issue made the rounds yesterday. It laid out two options that they believe could expand the firepower of the bailout fund without committing any more money from member states. ????The Europeans would probably never admit it, but the two proposed leveraging tactics look very similar to two programs instituted in the U.S. at the height of the mortgage meltdown in 2008 and 2009– the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, known as TALF, and the Public-Private Investment Program, known as PPIP. Remember those? |