????顯然政府領導人很清楚要做什么。問題是怎么做，這也是為何他們需要這么長時間才能作出反應。本周日若能達成協議，將是一個重大的勝利，但這只是可能。法國希望重組銀行救助基金，參照美國問題資產救助計劃（Troubled Asset Relief Program）的設計，將EFSF作為填補銀行業資本金缺口的主要融資工具。德國則希望市場能夠提供幫助，而僅僅只是把EFSF作為一旦出現銀行擠兌時的后備力量。法國模式已經得在實踐中得到了檢驗，而德國模式對于已厭倦了救助的歐洲人而言可能更容易接受些。

????法國模式有望最終勝出，因為EFSF資金早已到位，隨時可以部署。這些資金可以分配給歐元區內不同政府，然后再由政府撥給銀行。創建全新的、基于市場的投資計劃，現在似乎已經為時太晚。

????短期內，EFSF的4,400億歐元看來足以應付銀行業的注資需求，并填補希臘和葡萄牙的財政缺口。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）8月份曾估計，削減主權債務和提高資本金儲備后，銀行業需要2,000億歐元來填補資產負債表中的缺口。雖然國際貨幣基金組織的數字接近歐洲銀行管理局（European Banking Authority）3個月前進行壓力測試時宣稱所需金額的8倍，但這一數據可能還不夠高。摩根大通（JPMorgan)的一項分析顯示，若采用新的減債比例，希臘、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、意大利和西班牙的債務分別削減60%、40%、20%、15%和10%，同時要求歐洲銀行業將資本充足率上調至9%，總救助額將飆升至2,800億歐元。

????EFSF目前可用于將債務一筆勾銷，但如果銀行業需要更多現金或者歐元區邊緣國家的財政收入缺口進一步擴大，這筆資金將很快耗盡。歐元區將陷入彈盡糧絕的境地，這種局面可能引發市場恐慌。為此，領導人們可能需要起草一項計劃，逐步對EFSF進行擴容，并將計劃交由各國議會進行新一輪的投票。此舉可能會遇到麻煩，因為當前的擴容計劃首次通過時已非常困難。

????目前，市場看好歐洲將EFSF用于歐洲銀行業的資本重整和穩定可能取得的成果。然而，如果本周日的決議讓市場的愿望落空，此輪市場反彈將岌岌可危。最終，市場將不得不考慮EFSF用盡之后將會出現的局面。如果EFSF擴容失敗，可能將進一步加深市場焦慮情緒，使歐洲重新回到起點。

????What needs to be done is clearly understood by government leaders. The question of how it will be done is why it has taken this long for them to respond. It would be quite a feat for them to hammer out an agreement by this Sunday, but it is possible. France wants the bank bailout fund to be structured similar to how the Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed in the U.S., where the EFSF is used as the primary funding vehicle to fill the capital holes in the banks. Germany wants the market to help fund the bailout with the EFSF acting as a backstop to any further bank runs. The French model has been tried and tested while the German model would be more palatable to a populace that is suffering from bailout fatigue.

????In the end the French model should win out as the EFSF money is already there and ready to be deployed. The money could be handed over to the various euro zone governments which would then be doled out to the banks. Creating some totally new market-based investment scheme now seems way too late.

????In the short term, the 440 billion euros in the EFSF appears adequate to recapitalize the banks and fund fiscal gaps in Greece and Portugal. The IMF estimated back in August that the banks would need 200 billion euros to plug the holes in their balance sheets after writing down their sovereign debt holdings and boosting their capital reserves. While the IMF number was nearly eight times the amount that the European Banking Authority claimed was needed when it conducted its stress tests three months ago, it still may not be high enough. When taking into account a haircut on the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain at the new calculations of 60%, 40%, 20%, 15% and 10%, respectively, and at the same time requiring European banks to have a 9% capital ratio, the total bailout number swells to 280 billion euro, according to an analysis by JPMorgan.

????The EFSF could be used now to wipe the slate clean but it will quickly be tapped out if the banks need further cash or if the revenue shortfalls in the peripheral countries grow. That would leave the euro zone defenseless, which would raise market anxiety. To that end, the leaders will probably need to draw up a plan to eventually increase the size of the EFSF, forcing another round of voting in national parliaments. That could present problems given how difficult it was to pass the current upgrade the first time around.

????The market is pricing in a happy outcome in Europe with the EFSF used to recapitalize and stabilize Europe's banking sector. A resolution that falls short of that outcome this Sunday will put the current market bounce in jeopardy. Eventually, the markets will have to contend with what happens after the EFSF is tapped out. Failure to expand the EFSF could raise anxiety levels once again, putting Europe back at square one.