????沃倫?巴菲特在奧馬哈接受我的電話采訪時說：“恐懼與貪婪之間沒有可比性。”他大聲說道：“恐懼是瞬間產生的、普遍存在的、激烈的情緒。而貪婪則更加緩慢。恐懼是致命的。”當天是8月9日，星期二，幾個小時之前，美聯儲（Federal Reserve）剛剛宣布，至少在2013年之前，美國將維持接近零利率的水平；并且，美國股市再次出現了報復性的反彈——時間正好處于周一和周三股市出現的兩次暴跌之間。

????對于我們這些凡夫俗子來說，今年夏天的股市暴跌令人難以承受，甚至會像電影《偷天情緣》（Groundhog Day）中的主人公一樣感慨：“天啊，我受夠了……”但對于巴菲特而言，這一切卻讓他精神百倍。那天，他像往常一樣爽朗，并表示他“感覺非常好。”為什么不呢？正如巴菲特所說：“股票的價格越低，我就會大筆買進。目前正是我們大舉買進的時機。”【買進的對象包括證券，以及大公司，當然前提是能找到收購的目標】（不過，他肯定不會告訴我又有哪些低廉的股票成了他的獵物。）巴菲特總是把他的工作描繪地輕松無比，但實際情況當然并非如此。要想像他一樣，你得擁有一個數十億美元的“戰爭基金”，像鈦金屬一樣穩定的神經，還要有一個聰明的、善于分析的大腦。龐大的團隊倒并非不可或缺的條件。

????我致電巴菲特，是希望了解一下他公司的近況，作為一個多元化精英的企業集團或控股公司，伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司應該可以有效地反映總體經濟。但鑒于標準普爾（S&P）在調低美國國債的信用評級后不久，又將伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司的債券評級（被評為AA+級）預期從“穩定”調低至“負面”，因此，首先我要征求一下他對這件事的看法。

市政債券是否安全？

????那么巴菲特先生對此有何看法？“以前，他們聲稱，如果他們修改對政府的評級，必然也會降低對一些保險公司的預期，因為這些公司都持有大量的政府公債。【巴菲特在接受媒體采訪時曾經表示，伯克希爾公司持有的現金中，有超過400億美元為美國短期國債。】所以，我能夠理解調低伯克希爾評級，它是調低美國債務評級的聯動反應，但我并不贊同降低美國國債的評級。美國國債依然是3A評級，畢竟，我們肯定能夠償還利息和本金，這一點是毋庸置疑的。美國能夠償還每一份合約。所以，我們的國債依然是3A評級。雖然我們的貨幣——美元——已經不是3A評級，但國債的評級依然不變。”

????那他的公司運行狀況是否良好？“到目前為止，我們所有業務都在穩步回升，即便歐洲市場也沒有想象中的那么遭——當然，與住宅建設相關的公司除外，因為它們還沒有完全擺脫困境。【重要的是，巴菲特承認，如果過去幾周的情形得以延續，情況會有所改變。】公司業務一直在穩步回升，甚至超出了公眾預期。”當然，巴菲特的這些話也可能是在試圖影響公眾情緒，但巴菲特對公司的數據極其依賴，他應該不會在數字上做手腳。

????兩個例子：位于以色列伊斯卡的一家伯克希爾子公司主要生成機械切削工具，目前已經出現增長跡象。巴菲特表示：“經過多個季度的等待，終于出現了增長。”他還補充道，這并不是因為市場份額增加。“而是意味著開工率在上升。”巴菲特旗下的另外一家公司TTI主要出售小型電子部件。他表示：“有點像賣軟糖豆，不過我們的銷售額有數十億美元，并且還在增長。”還有一家公司：“在奈特捷公司（NetJets），客戶的飛行里數也出現了增長。勞力士（Rolex）手表——我們是美國最大的勞力士手表經銷商——今年銷量上漲了27%”

????但伯克希爾公司是否有招聘計劃？很多公司都宣稱經營狀況良好，因為生產情況優異。但這家公司的情況比較復雜。巴菲特說，所有公司都希望每年都能擴大生產。巴菲特稱，上個月，伯克希爾旗下的地毯生產廠商Shaw解雇了400名員工，累計裁員約6,000人。當然，Shaw的業務確實與深陷泥潭的住宅建筑行業相關。“但等到行業回暖時，我們可能會增加數千名員工。”而另一方面，由于業務量增加，伯克希爾旗下的大型鐵路運營商伯靈頓北方公司（Burlington Northern）今年將新增3,500個工作崗位。政府雇員保險公司（GEICO）今年雖然只增加了700個工作崗位，但他說：“我們在這一行業的【市場】份額正在增加。”

????我問巴菲特，這是否意味著看好保險行業的前景？他的回答是并不盡然。

????“汽車保險業的行情一直不錯，但自然災害造成了惡劣的影響。第一季度，國外發生的天災給我們帶來了沉重的打擊，第二季度，國內又接連發生了自然災害。”巴菲特指的是日本的災難和新西蘭的地震，尤其是第二次克萊斯特徹奇地震，此次地震對新西蘭GDP造成的損失是卡特里娜颶風的十倍。巴菲特表示：“第一季度，我們針對與人身傷亡有關的損失建立了4,000萬美元儲備金，其中500萬美元用于新西蘭，3,500萬美元用于日本。自然災害造成如此嚴重的人身保險損失，這種情況確實非常罕見。”美國國內的災害是指美國歷史上最嚴重的颶風季，包括肆虐阿拉巴馬州和密蘇里州喬普林市的暴風。而且，巴菲特表示，惡劣天氣仍在美國繼續肆虐：8月1日，紐約州長島發生了反常的雹災，導致15,000起理賠，總價值約為6,000萬美元，而且這還只是汽車理賠的金額。

????美聯儲維持低利率的決定在周二引起了股市的反彈，巴菲特對此有何看法？他說：“我很少會考慮這種事情。”我問他，在他掌握的數據流當中，是否有跡象讓他擔心美國會陷入新一輪衰退。“目前還沒有。可能還需要一點時間才會顯現。”

????與此同時，巴菲特正在計劃買進股票——很明顯，同時他也打算發售伯克希爾的債券。據報道，伯克希爾正在利用歷史最低的利率，通過發行債券，以極其廉價的成本籌集資金。對于巴菲特來說，至少目前還不是恐懼的時候，而是采取行動的大好時機。

????（翻譯 劉進龍）

????"There is no comparison between fear and greed," Warren Buffett is telling me over the phone from Omaha. "Fear is instant, pervasive and intense. Greed is slower. Fear hits," he exclaims. It's Tuesday August 9th, a little less than an hour after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold interest rates at close to zero for two more years and the stock market has gone into yet another major spasm—up at that moment between two hugely down days.

????For us mere mortals, this summer's stock market meltdown has a grinding, Groundhog Day feel to it, as in: 'Oh no, not again…" But for Buffett it's invigorating. Today he's his usual chipper self, saying he's "never been better." And why not? As Buffett reminds me, "The lower things go, the more I buy. We are in the business of buying," [both securities and, if he can find them, big companies.] (And no, he won't tell me what he's picking up on the cheap.) Buffett always makes his job sound so easy, but of course it isn't. All you need is a multi-billion dollar war chest, nerves of titanium, and a brilliant, analytical mind. Not a very big group there.

????I'm calling Buffett to ask him about his company's businesses, because as a diversified conglomerate or holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) is a fairly reflective proxy of the overall economy. But first I had to ask him about S&P lowering the outlook for Berkshire Hathaway debt (which is rated AA+) from stable to negative in the wake of the credit down grade of U.S. Treasuries.

How safe are your munis?

????So what about it Mr. B? "They said some time ago that if they changed the ratings on governments they would lower the outlook on certain insurance companies because they own a lot of governments. [Buffett reportedly said that Berkshire holds more than $40 billion of its cash in short term Treasuries.] So as a derivative move I understand it, but I don't agree with it because I don't agree with the Treasury downgrade. U.S. Treasuries are still triple-A in that there is no question that we will repay the interest and the principal. Every contract will be repaid. So our bonds are triple-A. Our currency, the dollar, is not triple-A. Our bonds are."

????So what about the health of his businesses? "Up until right now, all of our businesses have been coming back---even Europe isn't doing that badly---except for businesses relating to home construction which is on its rear end. [Importantly Buffett did say that if events continue like the last few weeks it will change things.] Business has been coming back steadily, even more than the mood of the public." Of course, some of this talk may be Buffett trying to jawbone that public mood, but remember Buffett is a voracious consumer of his businesses' numbers and wouldn't be one to misrepresent them.

????Two examples: A Berkshire subsidiary based in Israel, Iscar, which makes cutting tools for machines, is showing growth, "quarter after quarter," Buffett says, adding that this isn't because of market share gains. "It means that the machines are operating more." Buffett has another company, TTI, which sells tiny electronic parts. "It's like selling jelly beans, but we sell billions of dollars of them and it is up." And there's more too: "NetJets' miles flown by customers are up. Rolex watches -- we are the largest seller of Rolexes in the U.S. -- are up 27% this year," he says.

????Ah, but is Berkshire hiring anyone? We hear so much about businesses being in good shape because they are so productive. Here things are mixed. Every business looks for productivity gains every year, Buffett notes. Shaw, Berkshire's carpet manufacturer, let 400 people go over the last month or so, and is down some 6,000 employees overall, Buffett says. Shaw's business, of course, is closely tied to the beleaguered homebuilding business. "But when that business comes back, we will add thousands of employees some day." On the flip side, Berkshire's giant railroad, Burlington Northern is adding some 3,500 jobs this year as business has picked up. And insurance company GEICO has added 700 jobs, "but we're gaining [market] share there," he says.

So the insurance business is good, I ask Buffett? Not exactly.

????"Auto has been good, but catastrophes have been bad. International hit us in the first quarter, and domestic in the second." By that Buffett means the tragedy in Japan and earthquakes in New Zealand, in particular the second Christchurch quake which cased as much damage relative to New Zealand's GDP as ten Hurricane Katrina's. "We set up a reserve of $40 million for death related losses in the first quarter, $5 million for New Zealand and $35 million for Japan. Natural catastrophes that produce life insurance losses of this order are very unusual," Buffett says. The domestic debacles were the worst tornado season in history, which included the storms in Alabama and Joplin, Missouri. And Buffett says the elements continue to be most unkind: A freak hailstorm on Long Island, NY on August 1st, led to 15,000 claims worth $60 million, just in auto claims.

????And so what does Buffett think about the Fed's move to hold rates low that has the market all in a tizzy that Tuesday? "I don't really think about things like that," he reminds me. I ask him if he sees anything in his data stream that is giving him cause to worry about another downturn. "Not yet, but it would take a little while to show up."

????In the meantime, Buffett is looking to buy stocks -- oh, and apparently to sell Berkshire bonds too. Berkshire is reportedly taking advantage of record low rates and issuing bonds to raise dirt-cheap capital. For Buffett right now at least, this is not a time for fear. This is a time for action.