????上周四，美國股市出現大幅拋售，根源或許來自歐洲，因為對意大利和西班牙主權債務違約的擔憂造成市場恐慌，投資者紛紛拋售股票以避免損失。兩周之前，美國債務上限談判占據了焦點位置，暫時分散了投資者對歐洲嚴重的債務危機的關注。但隨著美國債務上限問題表面上塵埃落定，歐洲重新成為投資者關注的焦點，但情況卻不容樂觀。

????歐洲央行（European Central Bank）試圖緩解市場的恐慌情緒，但結果卻使問題進一步惡化。目前，歐洲主權債務危機似乎已經進入最后階段，因此歐洲的高層正忙著想方設法避免對歐元的全面擠兌。上周五，在歐洲交易的西班牙與意大利的國債收益率小幅回調，原因是市場指望法國和德國能拿出有效的方案，收拾當前的爛攤子。但到目前為止，這兩個國家都沒有出臺任何相應的措施。但不論他們采取哪種措施，當務之急是要快速恢復市場的信心，否則當前的救助措施可能演變成為投降的信號。

????上周四重現了2008年秋天的情形。被拋售的不僅包括股票。由于恐慌的投資者急于把所有資金變現，因此常被認為可以保值的石油和黃金價格均出現下跌。不過，隨后一天公布的一份強勁的就業報告宛如一針強心劑，使市場出現反彈。

????投資者變現的現金全部涌入了美國的托管銀行。于是，最大的托管銀行紐約梅隆銀行（Bank of New York Mellon）開始向機構客戶收取費用，用于保管他們認為的“超高”數額的現金——因為缺乏投資渠道，銀行的現金水平越高，則意味著需要繳納更高的美國聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）費用。

????眾所周知，如果連銀行都不希望客戶存錢，這說明情況已經非常糟糕。這一切到底是如何發生的呢？歐洲的主權債務危機發展緩慢，投資者的注意力被美國債務上限談判的鬧劇所打斷。但美國和歐洲的債務困境存在明顯的差別。總體來看，當前美國的債務危機很大程度上屬于自討苦吃。投資者依然愿意購買美國國債。但歐洲則截然相反，投資者對于是否應該購買歐元區外圍國家的國債猶豫不決，迫使國債收益率不斷攀升。上周，意大利和西班牙的國債收益率超過了6%，與德國國債的差距達到了新高。

????為了應對這一狀況，上周四，歐洲央行宣布重新購買歐元區成員國的國債。這一充滿爭議的舉措表面上看似乎是歐洲央行自行承擔了歐元區外圍成員國的債務。但這一旨在重建市場信心的措施似乎適得其反。投資者擔心，歐洲央行開啟第二輪購買債券的措施可能會力不從心，從而造成一種虛假的安全感。

干預適得其反

????去年五月份，歐洲央行直接干預債券市場，被認為給部分歐元區核心成員國，尤其是德國造成了困擾。因此，歐盟領導人在上個月同意將干預債券市場的職責轉交給歐洲金融穩定機構（European Financial Stability Facility）。該基金由歐元區核心成員國于去年成立，目的是為歐元區外圍國家的一攬子救援計劃提供支持。目前，若歐元區成員國無法為自己的國債找到買主，可以由該基金全部買進。

????但EFSF依然未獲得進行交易的授權——購買計劃必須獲得歐元區所有成員國議會的批準。而且，EFSF也沒有足夠的資金。由于EFSF本身也需要發行債券來支付其買進的所有壞賬，因此，為了維持其3A信用評級，該基金只能購買價值3，000億歐元的債券。這筆資金足以滿足希臘的短期資金需求，但要想同時支撐希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭的資金需求，這點資金無異于杯水車薪。

????而在大約一個月以前，歐洲債務危機已經蔓延到歐元區分別排名第三和第四位的經濟體——意大利和西班牙。要滿足這兩個國家償還債務的需求，EFSF更顯得囊中羞澀。僅今年一年，意大利的資金需求預計將達到4，250億歐元——幾乎相當于整個EFSF全部的資金數量。盡管EFSF已經募集了約2，770億歐元，但依然有1，500億歐元的缺口。今年，西班牙還需要募集380億歐元，使這兩個國家需要的資金總額達到約1，880億歐元。

????歐洲央行繞過EFSF買進問題國家國債的舉措向倫敦和華爾街的投資者發出了一個信號：歐洲央行的大本營法蘭克福也已經陷入恐慌。日前，歐洲央行僅買進了愛爾蘭和葡萄牙的國債，但投資者對《財富》（Fortune）雜志表示，在未來幾天，這一機構還將會大筆買進意大利和西班牙的國債。由于意大利和西班牙的國債將在五到十年內到期，因此如果這兩個國家無法以合理的利率在公開市場募得資金，便必須靠ECB提供大量現金才能渡過難關。

????而市場在上周四發出的信號是，市場對歐洲央行作為歐元區成員國最終貸款人的新角色并不抱任何信心。畢竟，僅意大利債務市場就需要約1.8萬億歐元。歐洲央行根本無力為意大利提供保障，更不用說同時保護其他金豬四國（PIIGS）。更糟糕的是，部分所謂的歐元區核心成員國之間也開始出現分歧。日前，法國和比利時的主權債務也已經攀升到危險的水平，而且可能繼續惡化。

????與美國的情形不同，歐洲債務危機的蔓延就像快速傳播的瘟疫，正愈演愈烈。投資者們慌不擇路地逃離歐洲主權債務危機“疫區”，將股票、債券和大宗商品變現。這種狀況就好像這些國家的主權債券出現銀行擠兌，而歐洲央行則擔任著美國聯邦存款保險公司的角色。但即便強大如后者，它也沒有足夠的資金為美國的所有銀行提供緊急救助。

????美國的銀行系統之所以能夠渡過難關，主要是因為投資者對該系統抱有信心。因此，要想拯救歐元區外圍國家，投資者也必須對歐洲央行和它的領導能力充滿信心。如果信心無法恢復，歐洲的債務危機可能會迅速蔓延到其他主要市場。

????（翻譯 劉進龍）

????The massive selloff in U.S. markets on Thursday appears rooted in Europe as fears of a sovereign debt default in Italy and Spain caused traders to panic and run for cover. The markets had temporarily turned away from the crippling debt crisis in Europe two weeks ago as the debt ceiling debate in the U.S. took center stage. But with that issue ostensibly settled, traders turned their attention back to Europe – and they didn't like what they saw.

????The European Central Bank attempted to ease the market's fears, but it seemed to have only exacerbated the problem. European leaders are now scrambling to avoid an all-out run on the euro as the European sovereign debt crisis enters a possible terminal phase. Spanish and Italian bond yields rallied slightly in European trading on Friday on the hopes that France and Germany will come up with some sort of solution to the current imbroglio. So far, neither side has come up with a solution. Whatever they do, they will need to act fast to restore market confidence or the current correction could turn to capitulation.

????Scenes of the fall of 2008 were evident yesterday. And the sell-off was not just reserved for equities -- oil and gold, which normally act as a storage of wealth, also fell as worried investors put all their money in cash. The market rebounded following a strong jobs report this morning.

????All this cash is being dumped into custodial banks in the U.S. This led the Bank of New York Mellon (BK), the largest custodial bank, to start charging its institutional clients a fee for depositing what they consider an "extraordinarily high" amount of cash -- it has no place to invest it either, and higher cash levels mean higher FDIC fees.

????You know it's bad when even the banks don't want your money. So how did this all happen? The farcical debate on the debt ceiling temporarily distracted traders from the slow-motion sovereign debt crisis in Europe. There are stark differences between the debt dilemmas in the U.S. and Europe. In general, the current U.S. debt crisis is largely a self imposed one. Investors still want to buy U.S. debt. Conversely, in Europe, investors are hesitant to buy the debt of the peripheral nations of the eurozone, forcing bond yields to skyrocket. Yields on Italian and Spanish debt passed 6% this week, hitting a record differential to German government bonds.

????In response, the European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it would restart a controversial program of buying up the sovereign debt of member nations. The move would ostensibly place the obligations of the peripheral euro member states on to its balance sheet. But this confidence building measure seems to have backfired. Investors fear that the ECB could be biting off way more than it can chew by initiating this second round of bond buying, leading to a false sense of security.

When intervention backfires

????Direct ECB intervention in the bond markets last May was seen as troubling to some of the eurozone's core members, especially Germany. That's why EU leaders agreed last month to transfer this role to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). This fund, which was set up last year by core euro members to support rescue packages in the eurozone periphery, would now be allowed to buy up the debt of member nations who were having a hard time finding willing buyers for their bonds.

????But the EFSF still is not authorized to make any purchases -- the plan must be approved by every euro member's parliament. Furthermore, the EFSF doesn't appear to have enough cash for the job. To maintain its triple-A credit rating, as the EFSF issues its own bonds to pay for all the bad debt it buys up, it could only really acquire around 300 billion euros worth of debt. That would have been sufficient to cover the short term funding needs of Greece, but it appears to be woefully inadequate to backstop the funding needs of Greece, Portugal and Ireland at the same time.

????But around a month ago the contagion had spread to Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third and fourth-largest economies, respectively. The EFSF couldn't even make a dent in covering the debt requirements of these countries. Italy's funding needs this year alone is projected to be 425 billion euros – nearly the entire EFSF. It has already raised around 277 billion euros, but still has around 150 billion euros left to raise. Spain has about 38 billion euros left to raise this year, bringing the total amount the two nations need to around 188 billion euros.

????The ECB's move to bypass the EFSF and buy up troubled sovereign debt signaled to many traders in the City of London and Wall Street that panic was setting in on the streets of Frankfurt, the home of the ECB. The ECB was seen buying up only Irish and Portuguese bonds yesterday, but traders tell Fortune that they were looking into buying large blocks of Italian and Spanish debt in the coming days. Italian and Spanish bonds have much of their debt maturing in the next five to 10 years, so they will need large amounts of cash from the ECB to stay afloat if they aren't able to raise funds in the open markets at reasonable interest rates.

????Nevertheless, the market signaled on Thursday that it had no faith in the ECB's new role of being this sort of lender of last resort to its member nations. After all, the Italian debt market alone is around 1.8 trillion euros. Not even the ECB could wrap its arms around that one - yet alone wrap its arms around all the other PIIGS nations at the same time. To make matters worse, cracks are beginning to form in some of the so-called core eurozone members. Yields on French and Belgian sovereign bonds started to climb into dangerous territory yesterday and could continue on their way up.

????Unlike with the U.S., the European debt contagion appears to be a fast moving disease, which is picking up steam. Investors are trying to position themselves as far away from the contagion as possible, opting to liquidate equities, bonds and commodities into plain old cash. The situation is somewhat analogous to a bank run on the sovereign bonds of these countries, with the ECB acting as the FDIC. But even as hefty as the FDIC is today, it doesn't have enough cash to bailout every single bank in the U.S.

????The reason the U.S. banking system stays afloat is because people believe in the system. Therefore, if the eurozone periphery is to be saved, investors need to believe in the ECB and its leadership. If confidence doesn't return, the European contagion could quickly spread to all major markets.