????獨立投資公司Gluskin Sheff的經濟學家大衛?羅森博格相信確有其事。3月份，不光是失業觸底，下降至8.8%。羅森博格還發現實際可支配收入、家庭就業、實際商業銷售以及制造業產值均在3月份上升至最高峰。

????最近，隨著高盛（Goldman Sachs）和美國銀行（Bank of America）紛紛調低第二季度和第三季度增長預測指標，關于美國增長的疑慮也是日漸盛行。美國洛杉磯加州大學（UCLA）經濟學家愛德?里默認為經濟復蘇這一輪復蘇（產出的增速大于常規，逐漸填補了危機期間兩者的差距）已于去年夏天結束。

????但是羅森博格進一步指出，去年出現的經濟二次“疲軟”預示了世界公認最靈活的經濟體正步入新一輪的低迷期。

????羅森博格周一在給客戶的信中寫道，“美國經濟最主要的四大支柱指標在同一個月份達到峰值，表明我們離經濟衰退的結局不遠了。”

????當然，羅森博格之前也有過類似論斷。上個月他說美國發生衰退的概率大約為99%。他的想法自有他的道理，然而，業內其他人士，例如美國銀行（BofA）的伊森?哈里斯，仍認為今年年中很多增長態勢并沒有顯現出來，然而這些態勢會在第四季度的時候奇跡般地回歸。

????哈里斯將第二季度增長率由原先的2%調低為1.5%，第三季度的預測增長率由2.9%調低為2.5，唯獨將第四季度的增長率由原先的3%調高至3.5%。哈里斯和其他人預計日本經濟的反彈和能源價格的下跌將有利于刺激第四季度的經濟活力，這種預測很有可能成為現實。但是在經歷的大半年的經濟不景氣后，相信很難有人能真心實意地高唱復蘇凱歌。

????Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg believes it did. It isn't just that the unemployment rate bottomed out in March at 8.8%. Rosenberg notes that real disposable income, household employment, real business sales and manufacturing output all peaked that month.

????Skepticism about U.S. growth is catching lately, what with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both cutting their second- and third-quarter forecasts in recent days. UCLA economist Ed Leamer contends the recovery -- the process in which output rises faster than trend, closing the gap that opened up during the recession -- ended last summer.

????But Rosenberg goes a step further, taking the second economic "soft patch" in the past year as another sign that the world's most supposedly flexible economy is stumbling toward another downturn.

????"These are four critical pillars of the economy and they all peaked the same month," Rosenberg writes in a note to clients Monday. "Something tells me we are very close to a recessionary outcome here."

????Of course, Rosenberg has said this before. He said last month he viewed the odds of a U.S. recession as being about 99%. But his skepticism is worth bearing in minds as other forecasters, such as BofA's Ethan Harris, continue to assume that much of the growth that went missing in the middle of this year will magically reappear in the fourth quarter.

????Harris last week cut his second-quarter growth view to 1.5% from 2% and his third-quarter forecast to 2.5% from 2.9%, while boosting his fourth-quarter projection to 3.5% from 3%. Harris and others figure a Japanese economic bounce and lower energy prices will boost activity by then, and it is certainly possible that will happen. But it's hard to believe anyone can sing that song with much conviction after the downhill ride we've had most of this year.