????為什么希臘債務瀕臨違約似乎讓這么多的投資者措手不及？從上周日開始的過去兩周，股票六次漲跌，讓人以為人們并沒有預料到這種情況。事實是，他們早有預料。即便希臘確實違約，我們也應該對此早有心理準備。但是“市場”，無論它是誰，似乎不能一次記住太多事情。

????如果耐克（NKE）收入好于預期更，這一天希臘的事情似乎就被拋在了腦后。過后人們又重新記起這回事來。難道只有我看到了這種趨勢的荒謬性嗎？季度報告來來去去，而希臘是不會償還這些債務的。那么恐慌的歐洲國家元首能否將清算推遲就真的變得無所謂了。金融學教授們總是告訴我這就是市場定價的方式。我再也不相信這種說法了。我在想是不是全球投資者都不了解情況。

????的確，我知道成為專業投資者并始終專注于股市行情是非常困難的。你怎么知道何時有重要的需要知道的事情，比如是誰殺害了凱西?安東尼（美國近期一樁殺害幼童案的受害者——譯注）？另外，夏日炎炎，沙灘在向你招手。但是，這并不意味著“市場”有權不知道紛至沓來的重大事件。希臘近期的債務危機只是其中最近的一個例子。2010年11月第二輪量化寬松政策（QE2）的啟動則是另一個。美聯儲（the Federal Reserve）事實上早就釋放了該政策的信號彈，但是人們仍然反應得就像當天早上才宣布似的。

????現在就來看看有哪些壞消息。我詢問投資顧問公司Coburn Ventures頗有見地的專家之一皮普?科伯恩，在他看來投資者在作出微觀決策時是否會意識到宏觀的大趨勢。他簡短地回答：不會?！拔艺J為根本的問題是‘投資者’還停留在謀生階段，很少去觀察（集體）自身的規律，相反卻被日常的瑣事纏身。”他說?！盁o論如何，我都看不到任何這種現狀即將結束的跡象，除非突然間60％或更多的市場參與者嚴肅地對待投資事業，而不是不經任何深入思考、隨意地選擇投資項目?！?/p>

????好吧，讓我來替他們完成這項工作吧。我將尋找幾位富有洞察力的人士做客這周的專欄，這些人認同歐洲將重演希臘債務危機。請不要誤解，我說的不是正在迫近、讓整個歐洲都驚恐不安的某個主權國家的債務違約。這個目標太顯而易見了。是葡萄牙、意大利還是西班牙？相反，我將討論一些不可避免的事情，人們出于某些原因還沒有充分考慮它們。好吧，也許他們并非不可避免，或者說我們將討論的第四種情況其實已經發生了。但是，難道我們不需要去了解這種可能性嗎？為了讓市場在最近這段時間不至于一提到這些事情就立即崩潰，我們能不能討論一下以下這些事情？

????1. 美國一大型銀行將需要重新注資。頭號候選：美國銀行（Bank of America）。機構風險分析公司（Institutional Risk Analytics）的負責人克里斯托弗?惠倫，同時也是一位一貫尖銳的分析師，推薦了這一條。本周美國銀行達成85億美元（140億帶附帶條款）抵押貸款和解協議將使這一消息變得非常可能。銀行投資者是否會感到意外呢？毫無疑問，他們會的。

????2. 美國市政債券危機：最近大多新聞媒體都花大篇幅報道了明星分析師梅瑞狄斯-惠特尼的遠見，她在美國的市政債危機尚未發生前就預測了美國將出現市政債券違約額過高的現象。她仍然認為，美國州級和地方財政狀況將帶來一場危機。許多更顯赫的人物也認同這一觀點：沃倫?巴菲特就曾預測過類似的事情。那些認為類似希臘民眾對政府的憤怒不會出現在美國的人，你們有沒有注意到最近收集垃圾的次數已經由每周兩次變成了一次。也許住在曼哈頓的市政分析師太多，以至于沒人知道垃圾車的工作時間表?！疚艺f的就是你，亞歷山德拉．萊貝撒爾（證券公司 Lebenthal & Co高管——譯注）】請不要告訴我在此之前你沒有注意到這一點。

????3. 中國的經濟引擎將產生反效果，沒人能夠置身事外。供職于《格蘭特利率觀察家》雜志（Grant's Interest Rate Observer）的詹姆斯?格蘭特希望提醒所有人，中國的銀行處于非常危險的狀態。中國的情況你了解吧。中國的銀行貸款數額增長過快，其中部分貸款還投向了政府部門，同時銀行的不良貸款率畸高。雜志的分析師伊萬?洛倫茲一針見血地指出：“亞洲所謂的國家固定資產投資發展模式總是會導致債務大規模配置不當以及定價錯誤。20世紀70年代蘇聯和20世紀90年代的韓國都曾發生過這種情況。這種模式一開始運轉不錯，然后就會開始出現問題，最后崩盤。”

????4. 中國知識產權獲取方式難以為繼。談到中國，科技智囊集團戰略通訊社（Strategic News Service）的馬克?安德森指出，中國從其他國家獲得知識產權的30年歷程將難以為繼。還記得針對谷歌（Google）、瞻博網絡(Juniper Networks)、摩根士丹利 (MS) (Morgan Stanley)以及 Adobe (ADBE) 的極光攻擊行動(the Aurora attack)嗎？顯然，這僅僅是在安德森最近一次會議上出現的內容，英特爾 (INTC) (Intel) 也是一個目標。請忘記中國的廉價勞動力吧。

????5. 美國債務上限問題。最后我們不要忘記還有美國債務上限問題。我知道，這個問題在華盛頓已經成為一個黨派之爭，盡管我不能理解是出于什么原因維護國家信用評級這一神圣的職責會成為一個黨派問題。共和黨就這個問題向總統發難顯示出他們除了關注自己短期的民意指標之外嚴重無知。（可悲的是，這種無知與整體上不關注大局投資者何其相似乃爾。不愿退一步思索一下整體的形勢難道是人類的本性嗎？長官們，債務上限確實不是一個黨派問題。）摩根大通固定收益主管馬特?贊姆斯四月給美國財長蓋特納寫信稱，如果我們都放任自流，我們將失去外國投資者，我們長期珍視的零風險評級將面臨降級、引發貨幣市場資金大逃亡、利率上升，最終危及經濟。因此，沒什么大不了的，真的。讓我們回來評價一下?？怂剐侣劸W（Fox News）的原話。那才是真正重要的。

????始終要抱有積極的態度，朋友們。我只是想把事情攤開來說。

????Why did Greece's brush with default seem to catch so many investors off guard? With stocks ping-ponging six ways from Sunday over the past two weeks, you'd think people hadn't seen this coming. Except that they did. Even if the country did default, we should have been ready for it. But the "market"—whoever that is—can't seem to keep more than one thing in its head at once.

????If Nike (NKE) reports better than expected earnings, it seems to forget about Greece for a day. And then it remembers. Am I the only one who sees the ridiculousness of this tendency? Quarterly reports come and go, but Greece will never repay these debts. So it really doesn't matter if the panicked European heads of state put off their day of reckoning or not. My finance professors always told me the market "priced" things like this in. I don't buy it anymore. I'm starting to think that global investors are clueless.

????Yes, I know it's hard to be a professional investor and to keep your eyes on the ball. How can you when there are important things to know, like who killed Caylee Anthony? Plus, it's summer, and the beach beckons. But that doesn't mean the "market" has any right to be ignorant of events that are barreling down the pike toward it. Greece's near default is only the latest example of such. The kick-off of QE2 in November 2010 was another. The Federal Reserve practically sent up smoke signals on that one and people still responded as if had only been announced that morning.

????Here's the bad news. I asked Pip Coburn of Coburn Ventures, one of the more insightful thinkers out there, whether he thought investors would ever wake up to the larger patterns around their own micro decisions. Short answer: No. "I think the root issue is that 'investors' live in survival mode and rarely work to observe (en masse) their own patterns and are instead sucked into the stuff of the day," he says. "I don't see that ending whatsoever unless suddenly 60% or more of market participants decide to pursue investing seriously as opposed to just randomly voting without increasing levels of thought."

????So fine, I'll do their job for them. For this week's column, I set out to find a few insightful folks who think they see another Greece coming on. No, I don't mean a looming default by a sovereign nation that has all of Europe scared. That one is almost too obvious. It's Portugal. I mean Italy. Or maybe Spain? Instead, I'm talking about a handful of inevitables that people have yet to fully process, for one reason or another. Okay, so maybe they're not inevitable, or, in the case of #4, they're already happening. But can we not agree to be aware of the possibilities? Can we discuss these things so that markets don't faint at the very mention of them sometime down the road?

????1. A major U.S. bank will need to be recapitalized. Candidate numero uno: Bank of America (BAC). Christopher Whalen, the always-pointed analyst in charge of Institutional Risk Analytics, offered this one. This week's $8.5 billion mortgage settlement ($14 billion with add-ons) makes that even more likely. Will bank investors be surprised? Of course they will.

????2. A municipal debt crisis in the U.S. There has been much ink spilled of late over the fact that star analyst Meredith Whitney predicted a rash of municipal defaults and they haven't happened yet. She still maintains that the state of state and local finances are a looming crisis. She's in good company: Warren Buffett has predicted similar things. And anyone who thinks we're not about to see some Greek-style anger at public officials in this country hasn't noticed that their garbage only gets picked up one day a week these days instead of two. Perhaps too many municipal analysts live in Manhattan to even know about garbage truck schedules. (I'm talking to you, Alexandra Lebenthal.) Please do not tell me you didn't see this one coming when it happens.

????3. The Chinese economic engine is going to have a backfire, and we'll all feel it. The inimitable James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, would like to remind us all that the state of Chinese banks is a perilous one. You know, that whole thing about growing their loan books too quickly, having directed lending, some to government itself, and an abnormally high percentage of non-performing loans? Evan Lorenz, an analyst at Grant's, puts it succinctly: "The so-called Asian development model of state-directed fixed asset investment always leads to massive misallocation and mispriced debt. We've seen this before—in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and South Korea in the 1990s. It works well until it doesn't, and then it crashes."

????4. Speaking of China, Mark Anderson of Strategic News Service says that the 30-year effort by the Chinese of "obtaining" intellectual property from other nations is coming to a head. Remember the Aurora attack on Google (GOOG), Juniper Networks, Morgan Stanley (MS), and Adobe (ADBE)? Apparently, and this just emerged at Anderson's latest conference, Intel (INTC) was a target too. Forget low-cost Chinese labor.

????5. Lest we forget, there's the whole debt ceiling issue. I know this has gone all partisan in Washington, although for what reason, I cannot comprehend, as the sanctity of the nation's credit rating should be a bipartisan issue. Republicans daring the President to a game of chicken over this show a profound lack of awareness beyond their own short-term poll numbers. (Which, sadly, is a corollary to the whole investors not paying attention to the big picture issue. Is it just human nature not to step back and think about context? It's just not a partisan issue, folks.) Matt Zames, head of fixed income at JP Morgan, wrote to Tim Geithner in April that if we blow this one, we're going to lose foreign investors, risk a downgrade of our long-cherished risk-free rating, trigger a run on money market funds, raise interest rates, and imperil the economy. So no big deal, really. Let's get back to scoring soundbites on Fox News. That's what really matters.

????Always optimistic here, people. Just want to get it all out on the table.