????盡管美國投資者已不堪忍受眼下低得不足掛齒的利率，但是他們心中依然充滿焦慮和恐懼——既不敢一頭扎到股票市場中去，又畏首畏尾的不敢繼續投資債券。

????他們反倒希望眼下正置身于中間地帶：將資金投入到那些一度跌入投資煉獄的金融資產中，希望憑此得到穩定的收入。機構投資者再度熱衷于銀行參與貸款、盟約亮點公司債券、具有國外背景的資產擔保證券（asset-backed security）以及各種形式的商業房地產。與此同時，個人投資者則轉向股息基金和某些債券基金，這些資產提供的收益要遠優于政府債券。

????雖然這并不等于眼下的形勢已跟2005年一樣，投資者開始一窩蜂地追求高收益，但也差不多了。鑒于美國聯邦儲備局（Federal Reserve）推行的低利率政策，幾乎每種金融資產類別都存在著風險。“本?伯克南重新引燃了風險市場。”Sitka Pacific Capital的注冊投資顧問邁克爾?“米什”?謝德羅克表示，他同時也是一名深受歡迎的網絡日志作者。“人們眼下的行為與2006年毫無二致。”他指出：“這類事沒什么基本面支撐，都是流動資金和感受在作怪。投資者的內在感受發生變化，流動資金也會跟著變，因為流動資金就是個儒夫，而且它還會徹底銷聲匿跡。”據報道，上上周，伊里諾伊州發行的37億美元應納稅債券受到熱捧，如此強勁的需求，還能有什么其他合理的解釋呢？要知道，伊里諾伊州的養老金儲備嚴重不足，已是美國證券交易委員會的調查對象。

????這種現象的背后，是投資者對穩定收入的瘋狂追求。而且，無論機構投資者還是個人投資者都不例外。“那些原本會將資金存入銀行賺取利息或者投資于超安全資產的人，現在都在冒險。” 法國巴黎投資管理公司（BNP Paribas Investment Partners）全球信貸戰略家馬丁?弗里德森表示。“但是，人們投資的目的并不是要賺取巨額資本收益，他們只是希望能得到穩定收入而已。”

????全球各地的投資者都滿懷著這種希望。總部位于德國的房地產投資商GLL房地產公司（GLL Real Estate）就剛剛斥資1.01億美元，從另一家房地產機構CoStar Group手中，買下了位于華盛頓特區商業中心的一座辦公樓。僅僅一年前，后者僅花4,100萬美元就買下了這座樓。更為諷刺的是，此樓原來的主人美國抵押貸款銀行家協會（Mortgage Bankers Association），去年被迫搬離這座簇新的辦公樓，將其7,500萬美元的按揭貸款甩給了銀行，其做法與普通房主放棄還不起的貸款時的選擇一模一樣。

????GLL希望其投資能產生收入，并甘愿為此付出高昂的代價。CoStar發言人克里斯?梅克表示，GLL交易是過去兩年內美國房地產市場的縮影：華盛頓特區、芝加哥以及紐約等城市全套出租的房屋需求看漲，價格從最低價上漲了30%還多，甚至超過了2007年的價格水平。

????機構投資者也將目光投向了硬資產，以求在收入和資本升值之間取得平衡。美國教師退休基金會（TIAA-CREF）的首席投資戰略家布萊特?哈蒙德也很看好商業房地產市場的頂級地產，但他同時也關注農業、木材、天然氣和石油等行業。“在這些領域，我們能獲得巨大的收益。”這些投資中的多數都由一家保險年金基金經手。這家保險年金基金的定位就是隨著利率的漲落而變化，以保護投資者不受隨時變化的通貨膨脹的影響。現在，由于利率上漲，投資者已開始擔憂通貨膨脹的問題。該年金基金提供的回報率為3%~6%，雖然算不上驚人，但還是明顯高于美國政府票據。

抵押貸款擔保證券，終于“解禁”？

????由于經濟開始好轉，銀行也更愿意放貸，商業抵押借款擔保證券（CMBS）市場也隨之回暖。兩周以前，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）、瑞銀證券（UBS）以及Ladder Capital等機構投資者，私下里為瓜分一筆價值220億美元的商業抵押貸款擔保證券交易，而爭得難解難分。他們買斷了優先購買權。據熟悉此交易的人士介紹說，與去年秋天發行的同類證券相比，AAA級證券的息差降低了15%，也就是說其價格上升了。BBB級證券的升值更猛：息差現在比換兌比率高295個基點，而原來為425個基點。

????這筆交易引人注目之處除了規模，同樣搶眼的還有投資組合中貸款的多樣性，以及這些地產的位置——近91%位于一級市場。但是，如果深入研究一下細節，你便會發現，負債經營的模式也開始在這一領域悄悄蔓延。據穆迪投資服務公司（Moody's Investors Service）數據，潛在貸款投資組合的貸款-價值比為94%，比近來交易的貸款-價值比通常為88%~89%要高。在房地產泡沫最嚴重時期，商業抵押貸款擔保證券交易的債務服務水平曾一度逼近120%。

????要想在當下的房地產市場上進一步嗅出2005年的味道，你得到更特別的資產擔保證券市場以及所謂的“非代理”住房貸款市場去走一遭。在住房市場，“非代理”住房貸款可以是除政府支持外的任何類型的貸款。“在這一領域，各類分支市場異常集中，而且，基本情況比2009年時還要糟。” Warfield Consultants公司的丹尼爾?J?尼格羅表示：“所有人都在瘋狂地追逐收益。”

????他接著指出，在大蕭條（Great Recession）期間最為嚴重、黑暗的時期，收益高達15%~20%；現在，則狂降到了4%。上個月，投資者哄抬價格，競相購買風險極大的選擇性支付可調整利率抵押貸款，致使其價格上漲了5~10美元，比原來抬高了近15%，尼格羅估計道。友情揭示：在選擇性浮動利率貸款（Option ARM）方式下，貸款者需要支付的資金數量雖然已達最低，但卻能害得他們最終將家中所有的財產賠得精光。

恐懼得不是地方

????個人投資者由于對變幻莫測的股票市場依然心存恐懼，于是也開始以不同方式尋求收益。來自理柏基金評級公司（Lipper）的數據顯示，奧本海默基金（Oppenheimer Funds）和富達基金（Fidelity Funds）等共有基金機構提供的銀行貸款參與基金的回報較高，吸引了大量個人投資者。這類基金每1~3個月即會被重置。但是，此類基金的年收益由于尚未被評級，因此風險更高，到2011年1月31日，收益為4.53%，理柏公司的資深研究分析師湯姆?羅西恩介紹說。此類基金相對政府票據的差額可謂巨大。目前，政府票據的收益只有不足三分之一個百分點。羅西恩表示，個人投資者還紛紛涌向多領域收入基金，即廚房下水道債券（kitchen sink bond），去年，這類基金的收益為5.17%。專注于合格的股息收入的基金也很流行，這在某種程度上是由于現任政府沿用了布什政府的減稅政策，因此這類基金收益的納稅額度只有15%，而不是純債權收入基金適用的35%。

????有些人說，如果泡沫也有典范的話，那就是高收益債務市場。據Dealogic公司數據，今年的頭5周，這一市場發行的步幅仍保持在創記錄的900億美元上，與可比較的政府債券的收益息差亦從725個基點一路狂跌至525個基點。馬丁?弗里德森爭辯說，對高收益的拖欠亦創下了歷史最低記錄：現在只有近3%，歷史均值為4.5%。這樣，又需要換個視角來看待息差。有些人還預測說，拖欠甚至會降至2%以下，弗里德森補充道。

????債券基金管理公司DoubleLine Capital的負責人杰弗里?崗德拉什非常擔心，拖欠不可能持續走低，那些購買了垃圾債券、大宗商品以及銀行貸款等風險較高的資產的投資者會被套牢。事實上，他仍然認為政府債券優于股票：誠然，股票收益有可能是國庫券的2倍，但是其價格下跌20%的可能性也要遠高于后者。雖然他也對其他市場表示擔心，但仍然沒用“泡沫”一詞形容這些市場。之前，慢慢冒風險的投資者曾獲得回報。但是，現在的情形是，“他們所冒的風險越來越大，而形勢越來越不妙。”

????譯者:大海

????Investors are getting fed up with minuscule interest rates but remain nervous Nellies -- afraid to gallop into the stock market and afraid to hang back with their bonds.

????Instead they hope they're entering a middle ground -- putting money into assets once assigned to investment purgatory in return for steady income. Institutional investors are keen again on bank loan participations, covenant-light corporate debt, exotic asset-backed securities, and all manner of commercial real estate. Individual investors, meanwhile, are seeking yield in dividend funds and certain bond funds that pay much higher than Treasuries.

????It's not that investors are partying out there like its 2005, but it's close. Risk is mounting in almost every asset class as a result of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy. "Ben Bernanke has reignited the risk market," says Michael "Mish" Shedlock, a registered investment advisor for Sitka Pacific Capital and a popular blogger. "People are doing the same dumb things they did in 2006," he asserts. "There are no fundamentals for this. Just liquidity and sentiment. And when sentiment changes, liquidity will change with it because liquidity is a coward and it will disappear." How else can anyone account for the strong demand reported for this week's $3.7 billion taxable bond issue from Illinois, a state with a severely under-funded pension fund and the target of an SEC investigation?

????It's a hunt for steady income, and it's happening on both the institutional and individual investor level. "People who would otherwise be in CDs or ultra-safe assets are taking greater risks," says Martin Fridson, Global Credit Strategist, BNP Paribas Investment Partners. "But people are not buying to get significant capital gains. They are hoping to get their coupons."

????That hope is global. GLL Real Estate, the German-based real estate investor just bought an office building in downtown Washington, D.C., for $101 million from CoStar Group, a real estate firm that had purchased the building just one year earlier for $41 million. In a twist of irony, the original owner was the Mortgage Bankers Association, which was forced to abandon its spanking new building last year, leaving its $75 million mortgage much the way home owners abandoned their unaffordable loans: with the bank.

????GLL wanted an income-generating investment, and it paid big for it. CoStar spokesman Chris Macke says the GLL deal is typical of the real estate market of the past couple of years: fully-leased properties in cities like Washington, Chicago, and New York, are in demand, with prices rising more than 30% from the bottom and even pushing beyond 2007 levels.

????Institutional investors are also looking to hard assets to strike a balance between income and capital appreciation. Brett Hammond, chief investment strategist for TIAA-CREF, likes the top properties in the commercial real estate market, but he's also focusing on agriculture, timber, gas and oil, "something where we can get superior yield." Much of those investments are headed to an insurance annuity fund designed to rise and fall with interest rates, protecting investors against the vagaries of inflation, a new concern now in the face of rising rates. The annuity offers returns between 3% and 6% -- not exactly bell-ringers but appreciably better than US Treasury notes.

Mortgage-backed security, a dirty word no longer?

????As the economy improves, and banks become more willing to lend, the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities is also warming up. Just last week, institutional investors scrambled to get a piece of a $2.2 billion private CMBS deal led by Deutsche Bank (DB) with UBS (UBS) and Ladder Capital. They paid up for the privilege. Spreads on the triple-A rated securities were about 15% tighter than comparable securities issued in last fall, which means they were pricier. The triple-B layer saw even more aggressive bidding: spreads were 295 basis points over the swaps rate down from 425 basis points, according to people familiar with the deal. (See also Let's try this again: Mortgage bond ratings return with scrutiny)

????Size wasn't the only notable part of this deal – it was the diversity of loans within the portfolio and the location of the properties – about 91% in primary markets. But dig into the details and you'll see that leverage is creeping back. The loan-to-value ratio on the underlying portfolio of loans is 94%, according to Moody's Investors Service, up from the high 80s of recent deals. At the height of the real estate bubble, CMBS deals came whizzing through with debt service levels approaching 120%.

????To find a stronger taste of 2005 in the marketplace, you'll need to go to the more exotic asset-backed security market and so-called "non-agency" residential loans -- that is, anything that isn't government-backed in the home market. "In the non-agency residential sectors the markets have rallied dramatically and arguably fundamentals are worse than they were in 2009," says Daniel J. Nigro, of Warfield Consultants. "Everybody is a yield pig."

????Yields have dropped from a high of 15%-20% during the deep, dark days of the Great Recession to as little as 4%, he says. In the last month, investors have bid up prices on the super risky option-pay adjustable-rate mortgages by 5 to 10 points -- about 15% higher, Nigro estimates. Friendly reminder: Option ARMs enable borrowers to pay minimum amounts that can eventually eat away any equity they have in their homes.

Misplaced fear

????Individual investors, still fearful of stock market volatility, are reaching out for more yield in different ways as well. Data from Lipper reveal that they are seeking better returns in bank loan participation funds offered by mutual fund firms like Oppenheimer (OPY) and Fidelity, which reset every 30 to 90 days. The 12-month yield on the loans, which are unrated and therefore riskier, was 4.53% as of 1/31/11, says Tom Roseen, senior Lipper research analyst. That's a huge spread to the one-year Treasury bill, which is currently yielding less than one-third of a percentage point. Roseen says individual investors are also headed to multi-sector income funds -- a "kitchen sink" array of bonds that have yielded 5.17% in the last year, he says. Funds that focus on qualified dividend income are also popular, in part because the retention of the Bush cuts mean that they get taxed at 15% versus 35% for pure bond income funds.

????Some are saying that if there's a poster child for a bubble it's the high-yield debt market. Issuance remains on a record pace at $90 billion in the first five weeks of the year, according to data from Dealogic, even though yield spreads to comparable Treasuries have tumbled from about 725 basis points to 525 basis points. Martin Fridson argues the defaults on high yield are at historic lows: about 3% now versus 4.5% historically – which puts the spreads in a different light. Some are predicting that defaults could slide to under 2%, he adds.

????Jeffrey Gundlach, head of bond fund manager DoubleLine Capital, worries that defaults are unlikely to remain low and that investors in riskier assets like junk bonds, commodities, and bank loans are in for nasty surprises. In fact, he still prefers government bonds to stocks: Sure, a stock might offer twice the yield as a Treasury but it is much more likely to drop 20% in price than its thin-yielding compatriot. He worries about the other markets, but he refrains from using the word 'bubble' to describe them. Investors have been rewarded for slowly extending out on the risk curve. But now "they are owning more and more of it when it's less and less attractive."