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頂級投資人回顧股市驚魂一周
 作者: Scott Cendrowski    時(shí)間: 2011年08月18日    來源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
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湯姆?佛瑞斯特與您分享市場震蕩時(shí)期管理1億6千萬美元資產(chǎn)是什么感覺。
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周三:道指下跌4.6%

????周二晚上他睡得安心一些。但是,周三來到辦公室,他卻看到了彭博(Bloomberg)終端上令人抓狂的數(shù)字。一夜之間,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)期貨從1,170點(diǎn)跌至1,077點(diǎn),跌幅達(dá)8%。“看起來就像是世界要……”佛瑞斯特沒有把話說完。他頓了頓,說:“我不該這么說的,抱歉。但是我開始想,也許我真的錯(cuò)了。”

????在僅僅幾小時(shí)之內(nèi),他就從看好市場轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閼n慮不安。周三股市大跌,周四早盤開始回升。在周四股市上漲時(shí),佛瑞斯特早就再次進(jìn)入出手購買的狀態(tài)了。周三他再度減少指數(shù)看跌期權(quán),并增持了其投資組合內(nèi)的幾乎所有股票,增持金額近1,000萬美元。其中包括大牌公司如雪佛龍公司(Chevron)、馬拉松石油(Marathon Oil)、奧馳亞(Altria)、旅行家集團(tuán)(The Travelers Companies)以及微軟(Microsoft)。他沒有時(shí)間選擇哪些才是自己最中意的公司。

????周三下午的大部分時(shí)間股市都在回升,但是晚些時(shí)候再度跳水,當(dāng)日收跌4.6%。佛瑞斯特非常惱火。他想,“也許我忽略了什么。因?yàn)槭袌龅谋憩F(xiàn)實(shí)在是太詭異了。除非是2008年,不然市場不會出現(xiàn)這么大的起伏。”

????周三結(jié)束時(shí),佛瑞斯特已經(jīng)筋疲力盡。他已經(jīng)連續(xù)咆哮了兩天,不斷對手下的兩名分析師發(fā)號施令。當(dāng)周標(biāo)普500指數(shù)跌宕起伏,每日波動幅度達(dá)到4%以上。佛瑞斯特三周前就想和自己的家人一起去威斯康辛的綠湖度假,一直未能成行。

????佛瑞斯特心底里覺得他的做法是對的。周二和周三佛瑞斯特在股票價(jià)格從年內(nèi)高點(diǎn) 下滑約20%后買入。他知道美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的變化并不像股票市場波動反映得那么劇烈。所以他回家休息了。那天晚上終于睡了個(gè)好覺。

周四:道指上漲4%

????周四股市高開,之后持續(xù)攀升。佛瑞斯特開始微笑。基金資產(chǎn)中還有約15%的現(xiàn)金,所以他也不是完全壓注于股票。他仍持有一些指數(shù)看跌期權(quán),以便在股市下滑的時(shí)候保護(hù)基金。但是佛瑞斯特感覺自己上周已經(jīng)完成了基金的目標(biāo):捕捉市場下跌的30%,市場上漲的60%。他說:“要做到這一點(diǎn),你必須在市場接近底部的時(shí)候加倉 。但底部令人恐慌。”他認(rèn)為手頭持有的優(yōu)質(zhì)公司股票在未來市場艱難的時(shí)候會有不錯(cuò)的表現(xiàn)。

????標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在周四超過周二的高點(diǎn)之后,佛瑞斯特認(rèn)為市場將會轉(zhuǎn)好。眼下,情況確實(shí)如此。周五上漲之后, 股市在本周一再度走高。

????佛瑞斯特覺得自己終于可以抽空去度假了。他倒不是特別在乎排名,但是他的基金過去一個(gè)月的跌幅相對較小,僅下跌了3.6%,這比其他1,152個(gè)競爭對手好很多。

Wednesday: Dow -4.6%

????He slept better Tuesday night and arrived Wednesday to crazy numbers on his Bloomberg screens. The overnight futures on the S&P 500 index collapsed from 1170 to 1077, an 8% swing. "It just looked like the world was coming to…." Forester stops himself before finishing. "Well I shouldn't say that, sorry. But I started to think, maybe I'm just wrong."

????In just a couple hours he went from bullish to insecure. Stocks crashed out of the gate Wednesday before rising by late morning. By then Forester had steeled himself into buy mode again. He reduced the index puts again and added nearly $10 million of shares across nearly his entire portfolio, which includes top names Chevron (CVX), Marathon Oil (MRO), Altria (MO), The Travelers Companies (TRV), and Microsoft (MSFT). He didn't have time to pick favorites.

????After running up most of Wednesday afternoon, stocks crashed again late to finish down 4.6% on the day. Forester was miffed. "Maybe I'm missing something here," he thought. "Because the market is really acting funny. You don't get these large swings in markets unless you're in a 2008 environment."

????By the end of Wednesday, Forester was spent. He had been barking orders at his two analysts for two straight days. The S&P had whipsawed by more than 4% every day that week. He had been trying for three weeks to take a vacation to Green Lake, Wisc., with his family.

????Deep down Forester thought he had made the right moves. He bought stocks Tuesday and Wednesday after they had fallen about 20% from their year highs. He knew the U.S. economic news hadn't changed as dramatically as the stock market seemed to indicate. So he went home and tried to get some rest. He finally got a good night's sleep.

Thursday: Dow +4%

????When stocks opened higher Thursday and kept climbing, Forester started smiling. The fund still has about 15% of its assets in cash, so he isn't making an all-in bet on stocks. And he still owns index puts to protect the fund during future falls. But Forester feels like he accomplished the fund's objective last week: capture 30% of the market downside, and 60% of the upside. "In order to do that you have to add to your exposure somewhere near the bottom," he says. "But it's scary down here." He thinks his high-quality companies will hold up well during tough times ahead.

????Once the S&P 500 passed Tuesday's high during trading on Thursday, Forester thought things would get better. For now, they have. After rising on Friday, stocks are up again Monday.

????Forester is finally thinking he might be able to get away for a couple days of vacation. And not that he much cares, but his fund's relatively small 3.6% decline the past month is better than every single one of its 1,152 competitors.







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最佳評論

@關(guān)子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強(qiáng)弱,好領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就是循循善誘的人,不獨(dú)裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學(xué)者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個(gè)結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習(xí)慣于對在某個(gè)等級上稱職的人員進(jìn)行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當(dāng)下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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