蘋果新品發布會讓投資者沮喪
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Oppenheimer的分析師烏爾科維茲勸投資者把目光投向兩年以后的未來。 Oppenheimer的分析師烏爾科維茲在上周五給客戶的報告中寫道：“我們擔心，投資者會認為蘋果（Apple）接下來的幾次發布會平平無奇。” “盡管我們希望看到蘋果對各設備的‘內部功能’進行一些改進，但我們不認為蘋果能再次造成去年公布Apple Watch最后細節時引發的轟動。” 他說得很有道理。對我來說，蘋果即將在本周二出席的圣貝納迪諾庭審，帶來的激動恐怕更甚于傳聞周一發布會要推出的產品：4英寸的iPhone，9.7英寸的iPad Pro，新的Watch表帶和OS系統的升級。 所以，似乎是為了證明自己對蘋果的“出色”評價絕非毫無根據，烏爾科維茲忽略了這次周一的發布會，發布了一篇報告，名為《看看我們的預言水晶》。 以下是他認為蘋果未來兩年會采取的政策（下文引用自這篇報告）： 爭奪智能手機攝像頭領域的領導地位：iPhone的攝像頭很好地體現了蘋果利用現成配件，結合優秀的軟件工程技術，從而在競爭中脫穎而出的能力。我們預計，之后推出的iPhone會有許多調整——其中360度全景視頻和深度感測是最有可能出現的新功能。 Siri——蘋果各設備上的人工智能助手：我們相信蘋果會進一步擴大Siri的適用范圍。我們認為，蘋果在今年會鼓勵第三方開發者以更多有意義的方式與Siri聯系起來，借此應對“OK Google”和Amazon Echo。 另一項技術——虛擬現實：我們認為蘋果正在根據顯示技術上可能出現的變化（發光二極管）、圖形處理器的改進（最近的迭代使得圖形處理器性能不斷翻倍）以及更加復雜的感測融合技術的引入，打造一款移動虛擬現實頭盔。這幾項技術讓蘋果的虛擬現實頭盔得以利用現有的iPhone和iPad。 循序漸進的改善：我們認為蘋果還可能在硬件和軟件上逐漸進行一些不太重要的改善，包括防水性能的提高，電池壽命的延長，更輕薄的工業設計，新材料的使用，同時增強和擴大對家庭套件HomeKit、健康套件HealthKit、車載系統CarPlay和蘋果支付Apple Pay的兼容性。 結論：我們認為蘋果產品陣容的擴充和用戶體驗的增加，將會繼續提高公司生態系統的影響力。這使得公司能吸引和留住之前從未接觸過的用戶。蘋果一步一步地做著這些，最終會讓公司創造出下一個偉大的產品。這種模式沒有變化，但我們認為這可能會讓投資者沮喪。 值得一提的是，烏爾科維茲預測未來時，沒有提到蘋果的汽車或是電視流媒體服務。 譯者：嚴匡正 |
Oppenheimer’s Uerkwitz urges investors to look ahead to the next two years. “We worry investors will find the next several Apple media events underwhelming,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz in a note to clients Friday. “While we expect to see several ‘under the hood’ improvements across devices, we are not expecting the same exuberance as last year when Apple shared final details of the Apple Watch.” He’s got a point. Tuesday’s San Bernardino court hearing holds more excitement for me than the rumored line-up for Monday’s “in the loop” event: 4-inch iPhone, 9.7-inch iPad Pro, new Watch bands, OS updates. So Uerkwitz, as if to justify his “outperform” rating on Apple, cast his mind beyond Monday’s event and put out a report titled “Looking into Our Crystal Ball.” Here’s what he sees coming from Cupertino over the next two years (I quote): Capturing Leadership in Smartphone Cameras: The iPhone cameras best embody Apple’s ability to elevate off-the-shelf components with superior software engineering skills to differentiate themselves from competition. We believe a series of major overhauls are in line for the upcoming iPhones—we see 360 video and depth sensing as the most likely new features. Siri—The Omnipresent AI Assistant Across All Devices: We believe Apple will continue to push wider deployment of Siri. This year, we believe Apple will encourage third-party developers to link with Siri in more meaningful ways, as a counterattack to “OK Google” and Amazon Echo. One More Thing—VR: We believe Apple has been building up to release a mobile VR headset based on potential changes in display technology (OLED), GPU improvement (consistent doubling of performance in recent iterations), and the introduction of more sophisticated sensor fusion, all of which will allow Apple to introduce a VR headset that utilizes current iPhones or iPads. Incremental Improvements: Other non-essential improvements we believe Apple may gradually roll out for its hardware and software are weather proofing, better battery life, lighter and thinner industrial designs, introduction of new materials, and enhancement and expanding partnerships for HomeKit, HealthKit, CarPlay, and Apple Pay Bottom Line: We believe Apple’s broadened device line-up and improving user experience will continue to add leverage to its ecosystem, allowing the company to engage and retain users previously untouched. It does this in small steps—and ultimately enables the company to create the next big thing. We don’t see this model changing—but we do believe it could frustrate investors. Note that when Uerkwitz looked into his crystal ball, he saw neither a car nor a streaming TV service. |
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