五大理由：蘋果可能要造汽車
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????華爾街券商Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師托尼?薩康納姆并不確信蘋果公司會(huì)不會(huì)涉足汽車制造業(yè)，但他可以肯定的是，蘋果對(duì)這個(gè)很感興趣。本周二發(fā)給客戶的報(bào)告中，薩康納姆對(duì)此給出了以下五個(gè)理由： ????理由一：汽車業(yè)年銷售額超過1萬億美元，對(duì)蘋果來說是個(gè)特別龐大，而且具有可行性的市場(chǎng)。近幾年蘋果絕大部分銷售增長(zhǎng)都由iPhone拉動(dòng)，而高端智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)未來增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將放緩，與此同時(shí)汽車市場(chǎng)提供了穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的巨大商機(jī)，可助蘋果業(yè)績(jī)穩(wěn)步上升。 ????理由二：蘋果是一家產(chǎn)品至上的企業(yè)，從歷史上看，它毫不畏懼進(jìn)入已發(fā)育健全的市場(chǎng)。蘋果一直專注于制造溢價(jià)高的差異化產(chǎn)品，無懼與業(yè)內(nèi)的強(qiáng)勁對(duì)手競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，其中不少對(duì)手都在研發(fā)方面投入重金。 ????理由三：特斯拉僅用較小的預(yù)算就顛覆了汽車行業(yè)，而蘋果擁有源源不斷的資金支持。 ????理由四：盡管汽車業(yè)的利潤(rùn)只處于中等水平，但蘋果向來擅長(zhǎng)走高價(jià)產(chǎn)品路線，而且總能憑此策略賺走行業(yè)大部分利潤(rùn)。 ????理由五：今后幾年，中國(guó)的汽車制造能力有望迎來大發(fā)展。我們認(rèn)為，蘋果有可能借勢(shì)以外包方式在中國(guó)制造或組裝汽車。 ????“那么，是否能確信蘋果將制造汽車？”薩康納姆問道。他的回答是： ????“不能確定。原因之一就是，蘋果推新產(chǎn)品時(shí)會(huì)很謹(jǐn)慎。只有認(rèn)為自己的新產(chǎn)品真正獨(dú)一無二時(shí)，蘋果才會(huì)推向市場(chǎng)。要判斷蘋果到底會(huì)不會(huì)推出汽車，還得多觀察各種跡象，目前任何人都很難猜中，蘋果自己可能也并未確定。尤其是考慮到蘋果在產(chǎn)品方面一貫信奉‘絕對(duì)要有特色’，如果蘋果真要造汽車，很可能是純電動(dòng)車而且可能是無人駕駛汽車，要做到這兩點(diǎn)需要強(qiáng)大的技術(shù)實(shí)力，還得跨越監(jiān)管方面的障礙。” ????關(guān)注移動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的Asymco博主、知名蘋果分析師賀拉斯?德迪歐在Twitter上對(duì)本文評(píng)論道：“像往常一樣判斷失誤。”（希望這話指的是薩康納姆的觀點(diǎn)）德迪歐認(rèn)為：蘋果只有在確信可以做出有意義的貢獻(xiàn)時(shí)才會(huì)進(jìn)入某個(gè)行業(yè)，比如發(fā)掘并解決某項(xiàng)未滿足的需求。他說：“利潤(rùn)就來自解決未滿足的需求，這里有無盡的財(cái)富等著有能力的公司。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：Pessy Wang ????審校：夏林 |
????Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi is not convinced Apple will actually get into the automobile manufacturing business, but he’s pretty sure they’re interested. In a note to clients Tuesday, he offered five reasons why: ????Reason 1:The auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable market for Apple, with over $1 trillion in annual sales. Given that the vast majority of Apple’s growth in recent years has been driven by the iPhone, and that the high-end of the smartphone market is projected to have a tepid growth outlook, the auto market provides a huge, incremental market opportunity that could move the needle for Apple going forward. ????Reason 2:Apple is a product company and has historically been undaunted by entering established markets. Apple’s focus has been on making premium, differentiated products and has taken on established competitors, many with deep R&D pockets ????Reason 3:Tesla has upended the auto industry on a relatively shoestring budget. Apple has nearly limitless financial resources. ????Reason 4:Although auto industry margins are middling, Apple’s premium-priced products have historically enabled it to command a disproportionate share of industry profits. ????Reason 5:Significant car manufacturing capacity is likely to develop in China over the next few years, which we believe Apple may be able to leverage to subcontract manufacturing/assembly of a car. ????“So are we convinced Apple is making a car?” Sacconaghi asks. And then he answers his own question: ????No, in part because Apple is typically very patient in bringing a product to market, and will ultimately only do so if it believes it has an offering that is truly distinctive. A lot needs to be occur for anyone (including Apple) to know whether that will indeed transpire, particularly since Apple’s historical “feature absolutism” points to an Apple car that would very likely be all-electric and likely autonomous, both of which require significant technology and regulatory hurdles to be scaled. ????“Wrong as usual,” tweets Asymco’s Horace Dediu (referring to Sacconaghi, I hope, and not me). His point: Apple only enters a business if it believes it can make a meaningful contribution, i.e. uncovering and solving an unmet job to be done. “The profit comes from solving an unmet job,” he says. “There’s an ocean of money waiting for those who do.” |
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