基金規(guī)模太大會影響業(yè)績？
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????“債券之王”比爾?格羅斯上月宣布，他將要離開太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO),加盟規(guī)模較小的駿利資產(chǎn)管理公司(Janus Capital)并推出一支新的債券基金（此前他曾與杰夫?岡德拉奇的Doubleline Capital接觸）。未來我們肯定會聽到各種關(guān)于陰謀和內(nèi)斗的傳聞，會有人說格羅斯是個很奇怪的人（這已不是秘密），跟太平洋投資管理公司的母公司安聯(lián)(Allianz)的管理層合不來（這也不奇怪）。但根本原因可能在于業(yè)務上的問題，而非性格不合，因為太平洋投資管理公司的業(yè)績低于普遍水平，在過去16個月內(nèi)已有680億美元的客戶資金退出。 ????很多人將太平洋投資管理公司的低回報歸咎于格羅斯，這也沒錯。他曾在2011年中期高調(diào)表示股市已經(jīng)過了峰值。他加盟駿利資產(chǎn)管理公司的消息使該公司股價漲幅超過30％，這表明投資者預期該公司將獲得大量資金流入。如果他們的預期是對的，可能是因為有人認為問題更多地是出在太平洋投資管理公司，而不是格羅斯本人？也就是說，是因為太平洋投資管理公司規(guī)模太大而無法產(chǎn)生領(lǐng)先于市場的回報？ ????如果你需要案例才能信服，那我就舉幾個例子吧。美國最大的公共養(yǎng)老基金加州公務員退休基金(CalPERS)近日表示將退出對沖基金領(lǐng)域，稱它的規(guī)模太大而無法恰當投資于該資產(chǎn)類別。哈佛大學(Harvard University)的捐贈基金規(guī)模是全國最大的，但其回報水平并不突出，一位消息人士告訴我，哈佛基金規(guī)模太大，導致其無法與規(guī)模更小更靈活的同業(yè)基金相比。而現(xiàn)在我們可能會看到客戶從規(guī)模最大的債券基金轉(zhuǎn)向更小的基金，雖然基金經(jīng)理是同一個人。 ????還需要數(shù)據(jù)作為論據(jù)嗎？由先鋒集團(Vanguard)管理的世界上最大的共同基金在過去6個月的表現(xiàn)和過去1年內(nèi)的表現(xiàn)都落后于標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)。考夫曼基金會(Kauffman Foundation)的一份研究（誠然備受爭議）指出，一旦基金規(guī)模超過2.5億美元，風險資本的回報率就開始下降。 ????當然，這不是一個完美的理論。例如，加州公務員退休基金（姑且不論其對沖基金問題）在2014財年跑贏了所有其他大型公共養(yǎng)老基金。現(xiàn)在華爾街的基金公司不斷追求規(guī)模，但格羅斯從太平洋投資管理公司離職，也許說明了規(guī)模大并非總是好的。（財富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：Lina |
????“Bond king” Bill Gross this morning announced that he was leaving Pimco, in order to launch a new bond fund at the much-smaller Janus Capital JNS 43.02% (after an apparent flirtation with Jeff Gundlach’sDoubleline Capital). I’m sure we’ll hear all sorts of palace intrigue over the next few days, including how Gross is a strange guy (not a secret) who couldn’t get on the same page with his bosses at Pimco parent company Allianz (not a surprise). But the real foundational issue is likely more about business troubles than personality clashes, as Pimco’s below-pedestrian performance has caused around $68 billion of customer money to walk over the past 16 months. ????A lot of the blame for Pimco’s poor returns has rightly been put on Gross, who famously suggested in mid-2011 that public equities had peaked. But Janus shares are up more than 30% on news of his hire, suggesting that they’re expecting major inflows. If these traders are proven correct, could it be that some view the problem more that Gross was at Pimco than that Gross was, well, Gross? Namely, is Pimco too big to produce market-leading returns? ????For those who believe in the law of threes, let me try this out on you: CalPERS, the nation’s largest public pension fund, recently said that it will pull out of hedge funds, arguing that it is too large to properly invest in the asset class. Then Harvard University, which features the nation’s largest endowment, reported mediocre returns, with one source arguing to me that size issues make it difficult for Harvard to match smaller, more nimble peers. And now we may be poised to see clients jump from the largest bond fund to a smaller one, even though the same laggard manager will be in charge. ????Need another data point? How about this: The world’s largest mutual fund, managed by Vanguard, is trailing the S&P 500 for both the past six months and for the past year. And then there is (admittedly controversial) research from Kauffman Foundation that argues venture capital returns begin to decrease once fund size surpasses $250 million. ????To be sure, this is not a perfect theory. As just one of many examples, CalPERS outperformed almost all other large public pension funds for fiscal 2014 (leaving aside its hedge fund troubles). But as all of Wall Street is constantly striving for size, Gross’s departure from Pimco may highlight that big isn’t always beautiful. |
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