????Mixpanel的數據?
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????蘋果（Apple）在本周一宣布，新一代iPhone開售頭三天的銷量已經超過了1,000萬臺。這超出了一些分析家的預計，也打破了去年900萬臺的紀錄。 ????而大屏幕的iPhone 6與加大款（并且利潤更高）的iPhone 6 Plus的銷量有多大差距呢？ ????蘋果并未透露這個數字。他們不想讓競爭者知道這一信息。 ????本周末，我們確實從第三方得到了一些估值，不過它們來自不同的消息源，而且有趣的是，它們相互矛盾。 ????上面的表格來自手機分析公司Mixpanel，不過其競爭者Chitika和Fiksu得出的數據與此相差不大。它們都顯示，最初三天內iPhone 6的活躍度（包括應用內購買等）是iPhone 6 Plus的七倍以上。 |
????Apple announced Monday that it sold more than 10 million new iPhones over the first three days of sales — defying some analysts’ predictions and beating last year’s record 9 million. ????How were those sales split between the big iPhone 6 and the bigger (and more profitable) iPhone 6 Plus? ????The company did not say. That’s information they’ll want to keep from their competitors. ????We did get some third-party estimates over the weekend, but they came from different types of sources, and — curiously — they contradict each other. ????The chart above happens be from the mobile analytics firm Mixpanel, but the ones put out by its competitors, Chitika and Fiksu, are not much different. They all show iPhone 6 activity (in-app purchases, etc.) over the first three days outpacing the iPhone 6 Plus by more than seven to one. |
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????然而派杰投行（Piper Jaffray）周五對在紐約和明尼阿波利斯購買iPhone的386名顧客進行了調查，得出了截然不同的結果：超過半數（57%）顧客表示他們排隊是為了夠買iPhone 6 Plus。只有43%的顧客是為了購買iPhone 6。 ????這一差異性十分重要。因為兩款iPhone銷量所占的比例，將決定該設備的平均銷售價格，這在蘋果的收入中占據了一半以上的份額。 ????導致這一現象的原因是什么？是中國。 ????中國市場對尺寸類似Galaxy Note的手機的需求很大，而新款iPhone并未在那里上市。在美國蘋果零售店開售首日的隊伍中，瞄準中國市場的手機轉售商占據了絕大部分，尤其是在紐約這類城市。根據2012年的人口普查數據，紐約的美籍華人數量為522,619人。 ????一位游客估計，周六在紐約Soho區的蘋果商店的顧客中，有90%都是亞洲人。 ????情況就是這樣：即便這部分手機已經設法流入了中國并已被激活，Fiksu和Mixpanel可能也沒有把它們算進去。 ????Fiksu在說明中寫道：“我們的示意圖主要體現了美國和歐洲的情況，因為Fiksu的多數客戶都注重在這些地區發展用戶。我們在亞太區的數據可能不具備代表性。” |
????Yet a Piper Jaffray survey of 386 customers lined up Friday to buy iPhones in New York City and Minneapolis returned a very different result: More than half (57%) said they were in the queue to buy the iPhone 6 Plus. Only 43% were there for the iPhone 6. ????The discrepancy is significant because the mix of phones will determine the average selling price of the device that accounts for more than half of Apple’s revenues. ????What explains it? China. ????Resellers buying for the Chinese market — where demand for Galaxy Note-size phones is strong and the new iPhones not yet available — dominated first-day Apple Store lines in the U.S., especially in cities like New York, where the Chinese American population, according the 2012 census, is 522,619. ????On Saturday, one visitor estimated, 90% of the buyers at the Apple’s Soho store were Asians. ????Here’s the thing: Even if those iPhones had already found their way to China and been activated, Fiksu and Mixpanel might not have counted them. ????“Our map is zoomed in to show the US and Europe because the majority of Fiksu’s clients focus on user acquisition in those areas,” reads Fiksu’s fine print. “Our data on Asia-Pacific may not be representative.” |
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