廉價(jià)iPhone能帶給蘋果多少利潤(rùn)
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????電信分析師們堅(jiān)信，除非蘋果（Apple）推出一款廉價(jià)手機(jī)，否則它將錯(cuò)失全球數(shù)十億尚未購(gòu)買智能手機(jī)的潛在顧客。 ????但是，正如本尼迪克特?埃文斯上周三在《關(guān)于廉價(jià)版iPhone》（Note on cheap iPhones）一文中所述的那樣，所謂一部“廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)”怎么定義，人們的看法并不相同。 ????他把智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)細(xì)分為4個(gè)價(jià)格區(qū)間：（以下引用原文） ?????0-100美元區(qū)間：目前這一市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)者包括一些鮮為人知的公司。它們使用聯(lián)發(fā)科技（Mediatek）、展訊通信（Spreadtrum）等公司的成品芯片。雖然此類智能手機(jī)運(yùn)行安卓系統(tǒng)（Android），使用3G技術(shù)，但是它們的內(nèi)存通常只有256兆，導(dǎo)致用戶體驗(yàn)極為糟糕。制造工藝和屏幕也乏善可陳。 ?????100-200美元區(qū)間：在這個(gè)價(jià)格區(qū)間，開始出現(xiàn)一些知名品牌公司的身影，包括諾基亞Lumia520、小米科技（Xiaomi）的紅米手機(jī)和摩托羅拉的MotorolaX，這些手機(jī)均能提供無(wú)可挑剔的用戶體驗(yàn)。我把這些手機(jī)比喻為汽車中的豐田（Toyota）或大眾（VW）：你清楚你開的的不是寶馬（BMW）或賓利（Bentley），但它們整體上挑不出什么毛病，甚至部分產(chǎn)品非常棒。 ?????200-450美元（左右）區(qū)間，中端手機(jī)； ?????450-500美元及以上價(jià)格區(qū)間，高端手機(jī)。事實(shí)上，還有超高端市場(chǎng)細(xì)分。 ????埃文斯指出，當(dāng)人們提到，蘋果會(huì)錯(cuò)失仍在使用功能型手機(jī)的那部分顧客時(shí)，其實(shí)他們指的是第一個(gè)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)間。 ????“這個(gè)市場(chǎng)包括200美元以下的個(gè)人電腦，商品利潤(rùn)率極低，用戶體驗(yàn)也很差，”他指出，“就連三星（Samsung）也不會(huì)真正進(jìn)軍這一市場(chǎng)。” ????第二、第三個(gè)價(jià)格區(qū)間的市場(chǎng)則另當(dāng)別論。埃文斯認(rèn)為，蘋果如今可以輕而易舉地推出250-350美元的iPhone，哪怕是喬布斯也會(huì)引以為豪的。問(wèn)題在于，這在財(cái)務(wù)上值不值。 ????在以下表格中，埃文斯對(duì)這些數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析。 |
????It is an article of faith among telecom analysts that unless Apple makes a cheap iPhone, it will miss out on the billions of potential customers around the world who have not yet bought a smartphone. ????But as Benedict Evans pointed out Wednesday in his Note on cheap iPhones, not everybody agrees on what constitutes a cheap smartphone. ????He divides the market into four segments: (I quote) ?????$50-100 smartphones: currently these are dominated by companies you’ve never heard of using off-the-shelf chips from Mediatek, Spreadtrum and others, and though they run Android and have 3G they often have only 256 meg of RAM, which makes for a pretty poor experience. And the build quality and screens are not great. ?????$100 to (say) $200 – this is where the branded companies start playing. At this price devices like the Lumia 520, the Xiaomi Hongmi and the Motorola X provide an experience that you would not, actually, be unhappy with. I describe these phones as like driving a Toyota or a VW: you know you’re not in a BMW (or a Bentley), but there’s nothing wrong with them at all and some of them are pretty cool. ?????Then, $200-450 (or thereabouts) counts as mid-range, and ?????$450-500 and up counts as premium. Arguably there’s a super-premium segment further up. ????When people talk about Apple losing all those customers still using feature phones, Evans writes, they are actually talking about the first category. ????“This is is the land of the $200 PC — very low margin commodities with a poor user experience,” he writes. “Even Samsung doesn’t really play here.” ????The second and third category are another matter. Evans contends that Apple today could easily make a $250 to $300 iPhone even Steve Jobs would be proud of. The question is whether it would be worth it financially. ????In the spreadsheet copied below, he’s run the numbers. |
來(lái)源：本尼迪克特?埃文斯
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????上表顯示，250美元iPhone將引發(fā)轟動(dòng)，年銷量可達(dá)4,000萬(wàn)部，毛利潤(rùn)可達(dá)20億美元。但是，把對(duì)蘋果高端手機(jī)市場(chǎng)份額不可避免的內(nèi)部蠶食因素考慮在內(nèi)，250美元iPhone對(duì)蘋果毛利潤(rùn)的貢獻(xiàn)率只有5%。從盈利角度而言，300美元iPhone將是表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)秀的產(chǎn)品；但它對(duì)蘋果毛利潤(rùn)的貢獻(xiàn)率也只有7%。 ????埃文斯得出結(jié)論：這并不意味著不值得發(fā)展廉價(jià)版產(chǎn)品，特別是考慮到它能強(qiáng)化iOS生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和削弱安卓系統(tǒng)。 ????問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵在于，選擇權(quán)在蘋果手上。它只要想，就可以隨時(shí)推出廉價(jià)iPhone。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：?jiǎn)虡潇o/汪皓 |
????What this shows is that a $250 iPhone would be a blockbuster, selling 40 million units a year and generating $2 billion in gross profit But after factoring in the inevitable cannibalization of Apple’s high-end phones, such a phone would add only 5% to the company’s gross profit. The sweet spot, in terms of the bottom line, is a $300 iPhone, but even that only adds 7% to Apple’s gross profit. ????This doesn’t mean it’s not worth doing, Evans concludes, especially if it strengthens the iOS ecosystem and weakens Android’s. ????The point is, the choice is Apple’s, and it can make it whenever it wants. |
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