中國領銜新興市場消費大轉型
|
????最近我和一些專家探討了新興市場，談話重點是消費者的行為——目前這是一個重要問題，原因在于，在許多新興市場，中產階級在不斷壯大，而且中國政府的政策旨在將這個全球第二大經濟體的增長基礎從投資和出口轉向消費。但眼下出現了幾個新趨勢，其中一些出人意料。了解這些趨勢對投資者和生意人來說至關重要。 ????? 隨著收入由低到高，消費者的支出會首先用于攝取熱量，這很自然。隨后，在人均年收入達到1500美元左右時，他們就會把支出用于更多地從蛋白質中攝取熱量。接下來，他們很快就會開始把錢用在熟悉的消費品上，比如個人護理產品，甚至是較大的物品，特別是空調。10年來，中國的人均空調保有量直線上升。但對手機的渴望經常會讓這種趨勢在剛剛出現時就受到影響。和我會面的專家們指出，許多新興市場消費者都會為了通訊而放棄營養。Facebook創始人馬克?扎克伯格的看法是，互通信息是人們的權力。他當然會這么說，但也許會有很多人認同他的觀點。 ????? 消費者想要更好的出行條件，但這方面的趨勢不像我們所想的那么明顯。在印度，一家四口同騎一輛摩托車不是什么不尋常的現象，所以我們認為他們會想要一輛轎車。他們確實是這么想的——直到有車的人太多時，人們就會想要摩托車，以便繞開堵在路上的轎車。 ????? 隨著經濟成熟，一個特別明顯的趨勢是，人們非常想得到當地的高檔酒。越南的竹管酒、菲律賓的椰酒和中國的白酒——當人們（好吧，準確說是男人們）的口袋里有了一點兒可支配收入的時候，他們顯然覺得非常有必要在買酒方面比以前多花點錢。 ????? 但政府可以遏止某種趨勢。中國的奢侈品市場曾經飛速增長，直到國家主席習近平表示奢侈鋪張不好，特別是政府官員。多年來一直很紅火的中國奢侈品市場去年基本上在原地踏步。 ????? 以前消費者購買的許多產品現在都可以分享，或者作為服務來消費。在農村貧困地區，大家會共用一部手機。不像固定電話，共享手機很容易。通過類似于Zipcar的租車服務，城鎮地區的消費者可以只在自己需要的時候用車。這樣，在邁向繁榮的過程中，他們消費大宗產品的時間會遠早于以往。 ????? 我們都知道，新興市場消費者將重組世界經濟秩序。但如果西方消費者想當然地以為自己明白具體的過程，就會碰到麻煩。一定要關注現實發生的趨勢。（財富中文網） ????譯者：Charlie ???? |
????As I was talking recently with a group of experts on emerging markets, we focused on consumer behavior -- an important issue now as many of those markets build growing middle classes, and Chinese government policy aims to shift the world's second-largest economy from being investment- and export-based to being consumer-based. A few trends, some surprising, emerged as vital for investors and business people to understand: ????? As incomes rise from low levels, consumers first spend money on more calories, naturally enough, and then, somewhere around $1,500 of annual per capita income, they spend in order to get more of those calories from protein. Soon after that they start spending on familiar consumer goods, such as personal care products and even on larger capital goods, notably air conditioners; the number of air conditioners per capita in China has rocketed in the past decade. But this early progression is often disrupted by a desire for a cell phone. The experts said that many emerging-market consumers will sacrifice nutrition for connection. Facebook's (FB) Mark Zuckerberg argues that connectivity is a human right. Of course he would say that, but his position may well become widely shared. ????? Consumers want better transportation, but the progression isn't as obvious as we may think. In India it isn't unusual to see a family of four on a motor scooter, so we expect them to want a car. Which they do -- until too many people get cars, and then people want scooters in order to get around the cars that are stuck in traffic. ????? A remarkably consistent trend as economies mature is a strong desire for a premium version of the local hooch. Ruou in Vietnam, Lambanog in the Philippines, the infamous Baijiu in China -- when people (okay, men) get a little disposable income in their pockets, they apparently feel a powerful need to pay more for booze than they used to. ????? But governments can stop trends. The growth of the luxury goods market in China was stupendous until President Xi Jinping decreed that ostentation is now uncool, especially among government officials. After years of booming, the luxury goods market was virtually flat in China last year. ????? Many products that consumers used to buy can now be shared or consumed as services. In poor rural villages, groups of people will jointly get a cell phone, which is easily shared, unlike a landline phone. Urban consumers employ Zipcar-like services to use a car only when they need it. As a result, these people can consume major products much earlier in their rise to prosperity than previously. ????? We all know that emerging market consumers will reorder the world economy. But we Western consumers will get into trouble if we assume we know how it will happen. The real trends demand attention. |
最新文章